Page 3 of 11 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast
Results 41 to 60 of 213

Thread: Could the Braves win 90 games this season?

  1. #41
    Called Up to the Major Leagues
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,007
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    932
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    425
    Thanked in
    300 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Actually I think the consensus was modest improvement over the 72 wins we had last year. Something in the 75-80 win range. I've been at 80 pretty much throughout the off-season. And I'm still there.
    It'd be more useful to evaluate when the results are in to compare WAR with the actual team win total. This way, it could be discerned if there's any correlation in making forecasts based on that tool

  2. #42
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,811
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    29
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    887
    Thanked in
    589 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This will be an excellent thread to bump in September.
    I mean we can although it seems to me that everyone thinks winning 90 games is very unlikely. Even I as the OP haven’t claimed that the Braves will win 90 games. I just wanted to talk about the early returns on this Braves team’s data. That data currently (with the all important SSS caveat) suggests that 90 wins is a possible outcome. I would be interested to know your insights on the data at hand and what we can take away from our current data points.

  3. #43
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Here's the actual deal...

    In 2018 so far, 244 players have accumulated 20+ ABs. Here are how the the Braves everyday players rank in xwOBA delta:

    Inciarte #90
    Albies #49
    Freeman #33
    Markakis #94
    Tucker #10
    Swanson #11
    Flaherty #38

    The Braves currently rank #1 in MLB in xwOBA delta, and it isn't particularly close. The gap between the Braves and the #2 team is is larger than the gap between the #2 team and the #12 team.

    The Braves are getting extremely lucky right now. Literally every batter is above MLB average in luck according to xwOBA, while only Albies and Inciarte profile as guys who can do that consistently. This is the "if everything goes right scenario", and it won't last.

  4. #44
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,567
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Also important to note that while we are clearly play above our heads due to fortunate bounces the talent level on this team is going to improve significantly by the middle of the season (Acuna/Camargo/Gohara/Soroka/etc..)
    Last edited by thethe; 04-09-2018 at 11:44 AM.
    Natural Immunity Croc

  5. #45
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    3,176
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    954
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    682
    Thanked in
    482 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Also important to note that while we are clearly play above our heads due to fortunate bounces; the talent level on this team is going to improve significantly by the middle of the season (Acuna/Camargo/Gohara/Soroka/etc..)
    This is something that continually gets glossed over.

    We look at today's roster and project what this roster of guys will do. By mid-season this will not be the roster.

    If the team keeps doing well, they will be at least tempted to buy at the deadline. If they crash, they may be tempted to sell. (I am talking in general terms... not just about this year).

    Last year we made projections early. For a while things looked like they might be better than projected, then they crashed a bit, and sold some players. In the end the projections ended up pretty close, and everyone crowed about how right they were. In actuality, one or two different decision on the roster could have made a difference up or down.

    thethe is a huge optimist, but he makes a good point here. The roster will change over the course of the season, and some of the changes we already know about will be positive. Success could lead to additional changes. That will affect the voracity of our early predictions.

  6. #46
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,430
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    It'd be more useful to evaluate when the results are in to compare WAR with the actual team win total. This way, it could be discerned if there's any correlation in making forecasts based on that tool
    it usually works...there was one year where the relationship was not as good...2016 if my memory serves me correctly
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  7. #47
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by mfree80 View Post
    This is something that continually gets glossed over.

    We look at today's roster and project what this roster of guys will do. By mid-season this will not be the roster.

    If the team keeps doing well, they will be at least tempted to buy at the deadline. If they crash, they may be tempted to sell. (I am talking in general terms... not just about this year).

    Last year we made projections early. For a while things looked like they might be better than projected, then they crashed a bit, and sold some players. In the end the projections ended up pretty close, and everyone crowed about how right they were. In actuality, one or two different decision on the roster could have made a difference up or down.

    thethe is a huge optimist, but he makes a good point here. The roster will change over the course of the season, and some of the changes we already know about will be positive. Success could lead to additional changes. That will affect the voracity of our early predictions.
    So you think Acuna will replace Tucker's 1.000 OPS, and Camargo will replace Flaherty's 1.000 OPS, and the offense will continue to chug merrily along?

    It's hilarious that we keep having these same disagreements between intelli and pozzy Braves haha.

  8. #48
    Called Up to the Major Leagues
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,007
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    932
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    425
    Thanked in
    300 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    it usually works...there was one year where the relationship was not as good...2016 if my memory serves me correctly
    As OP pointed out, the increased win total in '91 could not have been predicted. Otherwise, unless somebody shows accurate projections, the reaction is just "yeah, uh huh."

  9. #49
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    11,322
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    795
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    3,424
    Thanked in
    2,274 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    So you think Acuna will replace Tucker's 1.000 OPS, and Camargo will replace Flaherty's 1.000 OPS, and the offense will continue to chug merrily along?

    It's hilarious that we keep having these same disagreements between intelli and pozzy Braves haha.
    In the end, I think the offense will be pretty good. At the very least, there’s upside up and down the lineup.

    But I don’t see how anyone can look at the pitching staff and see how we can get to 85 wins with that group. It’s very revealing that we all collectively lost our minds because one of the pitchers pitched a six inning shutout.

  10. #50
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    8,025
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,467
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,951
    Thanked in
    1,360 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    So you think Acuna will replace Tucker's 1.000 OPS, and Camargo will replace Flaherty's 1.000 OPS, and the offense will continue to chug merrily along?

    It's hilarious that we keep having these same disagreements between intelli and pozzy Braves haha.
    I think what he was saying is, yeah there's going to be regression from Tucker and Markakis and Flaherty, but the regression won't be as large if/when Acuna and Camargo are playing.

  11. #51
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,668
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    As OP pointed out, the increased win total in '91 could not have been predicted. Otherwise, unless somebody shows accurate projections, the reaction is just "yeah, uh huh."
    Clearly. Players over or under performing isn't something anyone can really predict. I doubt anybody predicted TP to be the MVP in 91. Yet that happened and it greatly improved the Braves team. Player forecasts are just predictions on what is likely to happen based on what has happened previously. Why some people get upset at these forecasts is beyond me. The Braves don't have a lot of talent on the team currently or the talent they do have is young and aren't expected to be in prime production yet.

    At some point hopefully there will be a tipping point but I don't think we are there yet.

  12. #52
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    11,322
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    795
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    3,424
    Thanked in
    2,274 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    As OP pointed out, the increased win total in '91 could not have been predicted. Otherwise, unless somebody shows accurate projections, the reaction is just "yeah, uh huh."
    Moments like ’91 are special because they never happen. That was almost 30 years ago - it can’t always be the silver bullet for this fan base.

  13. #53
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,811
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    29
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    887
    Thanked in
    589 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Here's the actual deal...

    In 2018 so far, 244 players have accumulated 20+ ABs. Here are how the the Braves everyday players rank in xwOBA delta:

    Inciarte #90
    Albies #49
    Freeman #33
    Markakis #94
    Tucker #10
    Swanson #11
    Flaherty #38

    The Braves currently rank #1 in MLB in xwOBA delta, and it isn't particularly close. The gap between the Braves and the #2 team is is larger than the gap between the #2 team and the #12 team.

    The Braves are getting extremely lucky right now. Literally every batter is above MLB average in luck according to xwOBA, while only Albies and Inciarte profile as guys who can do that consistently. This is the "if everything goes right scenario", and it won't last.
    Thank you Enscheff. I always find your insight into analytics to be very educational.

    So just to summarize there is a major offensive regression coming and while Acuna coming up and Flowers and Camargo coming back may somewhat soften the blow. The drop off there will still be very a steep one. Am I correct?

    A follow up though that hasn’t been talked about as much is the pitching. We currently have a negative pitching WAR which can almost entirely be attributed to Teheran. What can we truely take away from our pitching data. How much would doing something like booting Teheran and calling up Soraka help?

  14. #54
    Called Up to the Major Leagues
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,007
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    932
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    425
    Thanked in
    300 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    Moments like ’91 are special because they never happen. That was almost 30 years ago - it can’t always be the silver bullet for this fan base.
    When somebody is ambitious enough to compile several years of data, demonstrating a direct correlation, then we can discuss. Otherwise, somebody just claiming "from memory" isn't a whole lot to go on.

  15. #55
    Hessmania Forever
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    13,994
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4,887
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    7,678
    Thanked in
    4,941 Posts
    I still have them set as a below .500 team. They could be 8-1, but they could be 5-4 depending on how things have rolled out. Tucker and Markakis will both come back to Earth and probably settle in in the .725 - .750 OPS range. Acuna can replace that, but I don't think he comes in and is automatically > .800 OPS. OF defense would improve with him on board however. Camargo may be a bit of a boost over Flaherty and I can see the team getting optimal production for those two (not compared to the league, but in getting the most out of them) by using match-ups and keeping these two fresh. I still think there's going to be a big fall-off in production at C. Freeman is great and I think Albies and Swanson can both be very good. Other than that, I see a lot of goulash. Some days that will taste good. Other days, not so much.

    Pitching has looked very good thus far (better than I thought). Plus side is that there will be options if some guys do face plants.

  16. #56
    High School Draftee
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    78
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    19
    Thanked in
    10 Posts
    The Braves will not average 7 runs a game is kind of a given. I dont think anyone expects that. But there is juice in the line up. Especially with Acuna and Carmago coming. Instead of 20th maybe they could be a top ten or five line up. The improvement is obvious. I enjoy stats but right now, Im just glad to watch Atlanta play some good baseball for the first time in a long time.

  17. #57
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,430
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    As OP pointed out, the increased win total in '91 could not have been predicted. Otherwise, unless somebody shows accurate projections, the reaction is just "yeah, uh huh."
    you have to remember the standard deviation on these season win numbers is 6...so missing by over 10 wins is not unheard of
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  18. #58
    Called Up to the Major Leagues
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,007
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    932
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    425
    Thanked in
    300 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    you have to remember the standard deviation on these season win numbers is 6...so missing by over 10 wins is not unheard of
    The Twins went "worst to first" also in that same season. Of course it's not unheard of but it was not predictable. Everybody picked them to be in last place again. Several players had career years, which were equally not predictable.

  19. #59
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    69,567
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,179
    Thanked in
    3,898 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    The Twins went "worst to first" also in that same season. Of course it's not unheard of but it was not predictable. Everybody picked them to be in last place again. Several players had career years, which were equally not predictable.
    Projection systems work well when the population is large. Projections on individual players are subject to more volatility.
    Natural Immunity Croc

  20. #60
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slippyjms View Post
    Thank you Enscheff. I always find your insight into analytics to be very educational.

    So just to summarize there is a major offensive regression coming and while Acuna coming up and Flowers and Camargo coming back may somewhat soften the blow. The drop off there will still be very a steep one. Am I correct?

    A follow up though that hasn’t been talked about as much is the pitching. We currently have a negative pitching WAR which can almost entirely be attributed to Teheran. What can we truely take away from our pitching data. How much would doing something like booting Teheran and calling up Soraka help?
    We are far enough along in the season that every SP has taken 2 turns. The Braves rotation stacks up as follows in xwOBA compared to 122 MLB SPs who have accumulated 30+ ABs against (you don't want to know who is #1):

    0.260 - Cy Young level Ace
    0.280 - TOR SP worth 5 wins
    0.300 - Solid #3 SP worth 3 wins
    0.320 - Average #4 SP worth 2 wins
    0.340 - #5 or spot starter worth 1 win
    0.360+ - AAAA filler

    Newk - 0.278 (#20)
    Sanchez - 0.301 (#36)
    Folty - 0.323 (#47)
    McCarthy - 0.338 (#56)
    Teheran - 0.445 (#115)

    The whole rotation is actually doing fairly well. The Braves pitching staff currently ranks #11 in MLB according to xwOBA.

    Teheran is currently not an MLB-quality pitcher now that he has lost 2-3 MPH off his fastballs. Due to the fact he has increased the movement of his off speed pitches this season, I would give him another ~5 starts to see if he can regain his fastball velocity, or alter this pitch usage to get better results.

  21. The Following User Says Thank You to Enscheff For This Useful Post:

    thethe (04-09-2018)

Similar Threads

  1. Should the braves tank a few games
    By Southcack77 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 22
    Last Post: 09-03-2019, 09:36 PM
  2. Streaming TV And Braves Games
    By CrimsonCowboy in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 06-12-2017, 06:55 PM
  3. YNOT SEASON STATS AFTER 11 GAMES - NOTE Play more games you will see your stats
    By AerchAngel in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 05-11-2017, 03:46 PM
  4. YNOT SEASON STATS AFTER THREE GAMES - EXTENDED STATS
    By AerchAngel in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 04-14-2017, 12:02 PM
  5. !! SCORES - 4 Games Braves vs Rockies
    By AerchAngel in forum 2015 YNOT
    Replies: 16
    Last Post: 07-16-2015, 11:27 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •