jpx7 (05-04-2018)
It has absolutely nothing to do with a "hatred for analytics", and the thing that bothers most who try to use that is you know it.
I've NEVER said (or intimated) that the new math is "wrong", simply that there are exceptions to the numbers.
I have no clue whether Allard can be exceptional when moving to another level - or whether he can turn into one of those exceptions, but I do know that the "can't-miss", "slam-dunk", TOR "Ace" guy that's his age (Forrest Whitley) is currently serving a suspension for juicing and isn't getting many people out right now.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
Maybe?:
According to research by myself and others, it takes about 70 games before observed results from a season in progress reach even a 50-50 balance with preseason expectations, in terms of how much weight each deserves when assessing a team. The Braves have played less than half that many games so far this year, which probably goes a long way toward explaining why the statistical projections haven’t budged much off of Atlanta’s relatively bearish spring-training predictions. The past data says you can’t read too much into a month’s worth of results.
However, that premise was designed to hold true for all teams as a group. What happens when we look at a smaller group of teams, especially just the ones that have as much breakout potential as the Braves? Atlanta went into the season with Baseball America’s top-ranked farm system and currently has the eighth-youngest roster in baseball (if we weight each player’s age by their wins contributed this season.)
To get a sense for whether this matters, I looked at all teams since 1984 who were coming off a sub-.500 season but had a better-than-.500 record in April. Over the rest of the season, teams in that group who were both among MLB’s 10 youngest and went into the year with a top-10 farm system (again, according to Baseball America) ended up winning 2.7 more games over the rest of the season than Elo would predict. By comparison, all other teams won roughly as many games as Elo thought they would.
That difference is just on the border of statistical significance, but if it holds true for the Braves, it would imply that they’re due to win more than expected based on their pessimistic win projections at FanGraphs and in our Elo interactive — and those extra wins could be enough to elevate them from a mid-80s win tally (sketchy territory, playoffs-wise) to a number closer to 90 wins (a much safer bet for making the postseason).
"For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."
AerchAngel (05-04-2018), clvclv (05-04-2018), Jaw (05-04-2018), JohnAdcox (05-04-2018)
thank god we actually have pitching now. amazing how devoid we were of it, and now we have a bunch of guys on the cusp of the majors plus a lot more coming thru.
i said all offseason that if the pitching performed well, this team had a chance to surprise people. hopefully it holds up. i think it will.
There is no doubt that a main reason, and maybe the reason for our success, has to do with Albies/Acuna/Freeman but in general you win a lot of games based on starting pitching and we have that in droves now.
The plan was implemented over 3 years ago with the knowledge of Albies/Acuna and we are starting to see the fruits of that plan. Its going to be a real fun time to be a Braves fan moving forward.
Natural Immunity Croc
Fivethirtyeight predicting close to 90 wins now for the Braves....but data still early in the season:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...stay-that-way/
Last edited by DaneHill; 05-04-2018 at 10:19 AM.
Last edited by jpx7; 05-04-2018 at 10:42 AM.
"For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."
If Fredi were managing we'd win 100 games.
Snitker may prevent us from winning 90 even with the talent we have.
Forever Fredi
Ah yes, I see it now. Apologies, jpx! Old news, People, move along! Move along!
jpx7 (05-04-2018)
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
This is basic. Do hitters do more with 88 mph fastballs than they used to? It seems logical that they would?
I suppose the alternative would be that hitters do roughly the same with an 88 mph as they ever did, but front offices prefer the outcomes with higher velocity fastballs.
I'm not sure what you are even asking...
Are you seriously asking if hitters do worse against higher velocity? Or better against lower velocity?
Or are you somehow suggesting that 88 mph today is the same as 88 mph 30 years ago, as if athletes overall haven't improved by leaps and bounds in the last 3 decades?
Further, this whole "statheads wouldn't like Glavine or Maddux today" is pure stupidity.
We only have pitchfx data for Maddux from 2007 and 2008, but here is what it reveals:
SI: 9.6" HMov, 5.8" VMov
That was an old man Maddux with above average movement on his SI going by today's grades...not the movement grades 10 years ago.
Maddux easily had plus movement on his SI back in 2007 when he was washed up. In his prime he almost certainly combined average or better velocity, plus or plus-plus movement, and elite command.
We would have known Maddux was amazing.
Last edited by Enscheff; 05-04-2018 at 12:08 PM.