The great folty vs Newcomb debate

[UNCBlue012]

Folty has an encouraging out last time out. I'd like to see him real in his wildness some more and then look out.

He wasn't wild in his last start. His control and command were the best I've seen in a while. If not for the weather, he was set to go another inning!

On that note, both guys have been terrific. If Newk doesn't give up that two-strike, two-out, three-run homer to Votto in his last start, his ERA is likely in line with Folty's and everyone is happy-go-lucky! lol

[Carp]

Folty has an encouraging out last time out. I'd like to see him real in his wildness some more and then look out.

???? You realize Newk had 2 wild pitches last night right? If anyone neess to reel in their wildness, it's Newk.

[msstate7]

BWAR...
Folty 0.7
Newcomb 0.5

[thethe]

???? You realize Newk had 2 wild pitches last night right? If anyone neess to reel in their wildness, it's Newk.

Newk wildness is out of the zone when he has that moment in the game where he loses it.

Folty wildness is in the zone.

I'll take newks kind

[bravesfanMatt]

???? You realize Newk had 2 wild pitches last night right? If anyone neess to reel in their wildness, it's Newk.

That doesn’t mean anything. One was clearly a curve that slipped. What I look for is strike to ball ratio. He threw 97 pitches 70 were strikes.

[thethe]

That doesn’t mean anything. One was clearly a curve that slipped. What I look for is strike to ball ratio. He threw 97 pitches 70 were strikes.

I'm going to take it one step further. Its not always balls and strikes either.

Folty throws a lot of strikes because he grooves it over the plate when he misses his spot on the corners.

The stats are best for players you don't watch. Stats are still good for the players you do watch. But, you need to use them as a tool and realize what you are watching. I still don't understand how anybody can watch the two and think that Folty is better at this point in time.

In a perfect world I could understand the argument where FOlty has more potential. It oozes from him during certain AB's. The movement on his 2 seamer is unfair along with the velocity. The slider is tight and stays down in the zone. But that is a very rare Folty.

For some reason people overlook Newks stuff. The dude has TOR stuff period. End of story. No further discussion on that point. Its all abouit working through that AB or 2 during a game where he looses it. Newk hits the mitt (insert laugh at thethe time here) consistently. He will continue to improve and with Flowers behind the plate Newk will THRIVE.

[Tapate50]

Safe to say, they know about this thread

[50PoundHead]

Fried doesn't have much hope as a starter, or pitcher at all in the majors because of how straight his fastball is. A "well located fastball" at 90-92 can be hit by anyone.

I'll politely disagree with your last statement to an extent. In the current era, most hitters can make contact with a fastball between 90 and 92. But that's where location comes in. Fried profiles as a ground ball pitcher and the problem with a lot of ground ball pitchers is that when their fastball gets up, if only by a smidgen, it gets ripped by, like you say, almost anyone. Fried's minor league HR numbers were solid, but that hasn't held at the big league level. Add to that his iffy control and it's obvious he has a few hills to climb before he can be a consistent major league pitcher. Fried is going to have to rely on better location at the major league level than he has shown to this point. If he gets that, I think he can contribute.

[thethe]

I'll politely disagree with your last statement to an extent. In the current era, most hitters can make contact with a fastball between 90 and 92. But that's where location comes in. Fried profiles as a ground ball pitcher and the problem with a lot of ground ball pitchers is that when their fastball gets up, if only by a smidgen, it gets ripped by, like you say, almost anyone. Fried's minor league HR numbers were solid, but that hasn't held at the big league level. Add to that his iffy control and it's obvious he has a few hills to climb before he can be a consistent major league pitcher.

His 2 home runs allowed this season at the major league level were on curveballs coincidentally enough.

[Super]

For some reason people overlook Newks stuff. The dude has TOR stuff period. End of story. No further discussion on that point. Its all abouit working through that AB or 2 during a game where he looses it. Newk hits the mitt (insert laugh at thethe time here) consistently. He will continue to improve and with Flowers behind the plate Newk will THRIVE.

Newcomb's stuff looks a lot better to my eye than Folty's. idk what all the grades would say.

[Super]

BWAR...
Folty 0.7
Newcomb 0.5

fWAR
Newk: 0.7
Folty: 0.4

[thethe]

Newcomb's stuff looks a lot better to my eye than Folty's. idk what all the grades would say.

Thats because it is and if you want analysis to back it up you need not look further than Encheffs posting on the matter a couple of months back.

What I think is happening here whether posters realize it or not is a backlash against the previous front office decisions and even moreseo the remorse of trading Simmons who has become a fantastic player. Putting that fact away those same posters will start to see what you and I are seeing. Newk has as good of a chance to become a legit TOR starter as any arm in our organization.

[thethe]

fWAR
Newk: 0.7
Folty: 0.4

bWAR is trash for pitchers as it leverages RA9. There is no predicative element to it but I get why its used in a metric like WAR which is supposed to gauge a historical value period. But overall it does not factor in defense and BABIP.

[msstate7]

fWAR
Newk: 0.7
Folty: 0.4

Yeah, I put in my first post in this thread this morning. Just wanted to add BR sees it differently

[Carp]

Newk wildness is out of the zone when he has that moment in the game where he loses it.

Folty wildness is in the zone.

I'll take newks kind

I'm happy Newk is pitching well. But let's wait a litte longer before we start annoiting him. Up until recently, he was easily the most "wild" pitcher on the team.

[thethe]

I'm happy Newk is pitching well. But let's wait a litte longer before we start annoiting him. Up until recently, he was easily the most "wild" pitcher on the team.

Nobodies annointing him. I said at the start of the yaer that he would show flashes but languish around a middle of the rotation starter based on ups and downs. I still think we are a year or 2 away from Ace folty.

[Carp]

bWAR is trash for pitchers as it leverages RA9. There is no predicative element to it but I get why its used in a metric like WAR which is supposed to gauge a historical value period. But overall it does not factor in defense and BABIP.

Uh no. fWAR is trash for pitchers. FIP is not a great stat. It's semi useful for prediction, but should never be used in a formula to value past performance.

[Super]

Newk still isn't 25 yet. Not that 24 is particularly young. But it also isn't old for a pitcher, especially a big lefty. some guys simply take longer to develop. i believe in newcomb because the stuff is clearly there.

[Super]

but should never be used in a formula to value past performance.

i disagree. ERA measures what happened, but not necessarily pure performance. a guy can have a great game with a 4.5 ERA or a poor game with a 1.29 ERA.

[thethe]

Uh no. fWAR is trash for pitchers. FIP is not a great stat. It's semi useful for prediction, but should never be used in a formula to value past performance.

Using runs allowed to value how good a pitcher has been is the worst thing I can think of. Its not the pitchers fault if the defense makes a bad play. Its not the pitchers fault if he is getting dinked and dunked.

But like you said - WAR should be a measure of value historically but bWAR is not isolating the pitchers value.