Braves Hitters Strikeout Rates in April

[nsacpi]

K rates for hitters normalize relatively fast...so some thoughts on which hitters might be seeing "real" improvement and which ones "fake" improvement.

Real: Muk, Freeman and Suzuki have lowered their strikeout rates. It is worth noting that this can be a leading indicator of improvement even for late bloomers.

Fake: Swanson. People will think I have something against Dansby but gotta call it as I see it. Strikeout rate is at a career high (24.3%).

Also concerned to a lesser extent by higher strikeout rates for Inciarte (15.1% versus 12.0% for his career) and Albies (18.9% versus 14.8% last year). I love Albies (and think he is more valuable than Acuna) but he isn't anywhere near the player he appeared to be in April.

[Enscheff]

Albies is funny because he has the batted ball profile of a slugger (47% FBs, 45% Pull%, 20% HR%), but below average exit velocities.

When that HR rate regresses to the single digits, his HR power will all but evaporate. At that point we hope his BB rate picks up to closer to 10%, and he starts hitting more LDs.

I think it will happen, and I'm not worried about Albies at all. He is still going to be the 2nd most valuable player on the team as I predicted this off season.

[nsacpi]

Albies is funny because he has the batted ball profile of a slugger (47% FBs, 45% Pull%, 20% HR%), but below average exit velocities.

When that HR rate regresses to the single digits, his HR power will all but evaporate. At that point we hope his BB rate picks up to closer to 10%, and he starts hitting more LDs.

I think it will happen, and I'm not worried about Albies at all. He is still going to be the 2nd most valuable player on the team as I predicted this off season.

He's been getting into deeper counts in recent games. Pitchers are adjusting and he is adjusting. I agree he will be fine.

[Enscheff]

We saw something similar with Story in April of 2016 when he posted a HR 10%+ higher than his true talent rate. He popped 10 HRs and there was talk about him being the next great power hitter. He regressed to being a good power hitter rather than a great one.

When the Braves first got Bourn, he popped a few HRs and there was talk around here of him “figuring out how to hit for power late in his career”. He regressed to having no power.

Just last April, Ender popped 4 HRs and there was a lot of talk about him making strides as a hitter and speculation about how great a 15+ HR Inciarte would be. He regressed to his usual HR rates.

We saw exactly the same thing with MAdams last year when the Braves got him. Same unsustainable HR rate, same ultimate result.

I suspect we are seeing the same thing with Albies, who will likely regress to a ~10% HR rate.

[Braves1976]

K rates for hitters normalize relatively fast...so some thoughts on which hitters might be seeing "real" improvement and which ones "fake" improvement.

Real: Muk, Freeman and Suzuki have lowered their strikeout rates. It is worth noting that this can be a leading indicator of improvement even for late bloomers.

Fake: Swanson. People will think I have something against Dansby but gotta call it as I see it. Strikeout rate is at a career high (24.3%).

Also concerned to a lesser extent by higher strikeout rates for Inciarte (15.1% versus 12.0% for his career) and Albies (18.9% versus 14.8% last year). I love Albies (and think he is more valuable than Acuna) but he isn't anywhere near the player he appeared to be in April.

I am only concerned about Swanson on this list. Inciarte doesn't handle cold weather well but will be fine now. I expect Albies to be fine too.

[jpx7]

Probably a dumb query, but how does exit-velocity vary along aging arcs (if at all)?

[Enscheff]

Probably a dumb query, but how does exit-velocity vary along aging arcs (if at all)?

Pretty much declines with age from the get-go:

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/qu...exit-velocity/

[jpx7]

Pretty much declines with age from the get-go:

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/qu...exit-velocity/

That’s what I figured. So we probably can’t expect Albies’ velocity to improve, despite his young age; but the upshot is it also likely won’t decline precipitously for a few years, given his young age, since the steepest dropoffs tend around age-23 and age-33.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Albies has decided that he is going to elevate through heck and haywater and the good thing with that is just by probabilities, I feel like you're going to hit more HRs than you should if you've decided to elevate no matter what, the BAD thing is...if you're going to do that, it increases your soft contact because of pop ups since you've decided to do this.

Not that he's going to hit 54 HR because he's not lol, but I really can't see him tailing off even close to Inciarte like from last year. As he's doing this and even through the ugliness of the soft contact, he's still hitting well.

Swanson has a lot of very ugly stats, but weirdly, statcast's peripherals really liked him at the last look. When he was still a bit over .300, his xBA/xwOBA/xSLG were all very positive. As in, he wasn't a true .300 hitter, but worlds better than 2017. So its hard to say, strikeout rate and BABIP are extremely ugly and suggest he's even worse than 2017...or do you believe statcast which says he's truly made strides?

[Eyeman]

Thanks for the numbers guys. Especially on an off day. I love Albies, but I think Acuna will produce a higher WAR this year than Albies, even with a month less playing time.