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Thread: 2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION

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    I could fix Heyward's swing in two weeks max.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Glasnow is likely turning back into a pumpkin. Last two starts have been bad and much more in line with the guy the pirates traded.

    At 25, he’s going to go from a 5-6 BB/9 to a 3?

    I think we know your position on the likelihood of that happening.
    Quite possible, even probable that he turns back into a walk machine.

    I think the point is that if the Rays “fix” Glasnow it will be a pretty disasterous outcome for the Pirates.

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    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    ...

    wRC+ and OPS+ stats for Heyward the last few years...

    2014: 109 vs 109
    2015: 121 vs 117
    2016: 71 vs 68
    2017: 88 vs 84
    2018: 102 vs 94

    Those values appear to track pretty well to me. How is one "pretty worthless" when it is very close to the "better stat"?

    Heyward is not a good hitter by either measure. He has just gotten himself back to average after 2 full seasons of being pretty bad. He is 29. His defense is declining.

    He is not a player the Braves should be targeting, regardless of how much some fans like him.
    But those percentage points are big difference makers when spread out over a season. There's a reason why B-ref uses a system based off wOBA and wRAA for it's WAR not OPS+. The difference between 5% above average and 5% below average is a healthy enough chunk of runs. We're talking about almost 10 run difference in terms of value.

    Using the standard aging curve, Heyward is still likely to be a net positive defender for quite some time. Don't look at the fall off this year and expect that to be the norm every year after. Plus who knows what happens to defensive value when his OF partner is Inciarte, arguably one of the better defensive CF in the game. Maybe he takes a few more chances which get a few more outs which drives his value up. That's just speculative of course.

    I'm not saying Heyward is the answer, but he could an answer and we could get him for a back of the rotation starter and a maybe good pitching prospect who could also maybe not be any real contribution because his arm blows out.
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    I honestly don't get why people are so in love with Gausman, he's a decent pitcher who can't go deep into games. Not a bad guy to have but he's hardly a prime asset, that's why we were able to get him for a collection of C/C+ prospects. He's kind of cheap but that's eroding quickly as he's already made 5M in arb.
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    Heyward for Fried and Gausman would be one of the worst trades ever, you trying to make Chicago win the NL going forward?

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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    I honestly don't get why people are so in love with Gausman, he's a decent pitcher who can't go deep into games. Not a bad guy to have but he's hardly a prime asset, that's why we were able to get him for a collection of C/C+ prospects. He's kind of cheap but that's eroding quickly as he's already made 5M in arb.
    I dont think anyones in love with him but trading him for Heyward would be pretty ****ing dumb.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    I honestly don't get why people are so in love with Gausman, he's a decent pitcher who can't go deep into games. Not a bad guy to have but he's hardly a prime asset, that's why we were able to get him for a collection of C/C+ prospects. He's kind of cheap but that's eroding quickly as he's already made 5M in arb.
    Because the returns on Gausman so far couldn't be much better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    I honestly don't get why people are so in love with Gausman, he's a decent pitcher who can't go deep into games. Not a bad guy to have but he's hardly a prime asset, that's why we were able to get him for a collection of C/C+ prospects. He's kind of cheap but that's eroding quickly as he's already made 5M in arb.
    The people “in love” with Gausman don’t understand why you’re in love with Heyward.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    I honestly don't get why people are so in love with Gausman, he's a decent pitcher who can't go deep into games. Not a bad guy to have but he's hardly a prime asset, that's why we were able to get him for a collection of C/C+ prospects. He's kind of cheap but that's eroding quickly as he's already made 5M in arb.
    You seem to be equally in love with a player who is overpaid and has underperformed for three years straight now. Yeah, he has been a little better this year but is about to be 30 and is simply not a great player, at least offensively. I get the fact that he came up as a Brave and gave us a few really good years. I liked having him around, but trading Gausman and Fried for him would be insane.

    I'm also not really in love with Gausman. I don't think he is going to be a 2 ERA stud ace level pitcher or anything. But I could see him being a solid 3 or 4 on a playoff team that we control through 2020. That is a valuable piece moving forward.

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    Heyward likely has negative value on that contract. Not sure anyone should give up anything with a pulse for the opportunity to pay him and see if he can recover some value.
    Ivermectin Man

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Heyward for Fried and Gausman would be one of the worst trades ever, you trying to make Chicago win the NL going forward?
    You're forgetting and about 50M coming our way. Think of it this way. Jay Bruce is going to be getting paid 13M a season until he's 33. I'm proposing using assets to get Heyward for 12M or maybe less if AA is really good at negotiation per season. Heyward has certainly been a more consistent and better performer than Bruce (Bruce with about 5700 PA compiled a 20 fWAR before this year Heyward with about 5000 PA has compiled at least a 29 fWAR) so what I'm proposing is that we use Gausman and Fried, 2 players of more or less excess value to get Heyward to that point. Heck maybe Gausman keeps pitching out of his ass and we don't need to give up Fried. I was including Fried because I know Epstein is a relatively smart GM and would likely want more than a back of rotation pitcher to clear out that much salary.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The people “in love” with Gausman don’t understand why you’re in love with Heyward.
    I'm in love with Heyward at 12M a year. Would be a great shot at a bargain and if he ever refinds any old form he'll be one of the best deals in baseball.

    Sadly what's going to happen though is we'll keep Gausman and he'll revert to his norms, we'll re-sign Markakis for more money than he's worth and he'll be miserably bad again, and all the while we'll be wondering, what if.
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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    I'm in love with Heyward at 12M a year. Would be a great shot at a bargain and if he ever refinds any old form he'll be one of the best deals in baseball.

    Sadly what's going to happen though is we'll keep Gausman and he'll revert to his norms, we'll re-sign Markakis for more money than he's worth and he'll be miserably bad again, and all the while we'll be wondering, what if.
    We won’t have to wonder though. Not with jhey. Gausman norm is still valuable. Neck resigned would be disappointing if we don’t sign a big catcher or any other impact bat.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    This.... was not.... well thought out. Basically what you are saying is that we make the Cubs kick in 50 million dollars just so Heyward doesn't have negative surplus value, and then give them Gausman (a solid veteran #3-#4) plus a top 100ish prospect in Fried just to sweeten the deal for the Cubs even more. For a player who hasn't produced over a 100 OPS+ since 2014 and has rapidly declining defense?

    I think we have found the Cub's most expedient route to winning another World Series guys.
    holy ****, i didn't even get to the part where we trade fried or gausman for heyward. i was lost at "heyward." but trading gausman for him? why would we do that? that is 100x worse.
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    No way on Heyward. Don't need him coming here bringing the team down. I wouldn't want him back at 5 million per season. I'd rather keep Kakes for another year or two, knowing that he'll be back to his old stats next year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    I'm in love with Heyward at 12M a year. Would be a great shot at a bargain and if he ever refinds any old form he'll be one of the best deals in baseball.

    Sadly what's going to happen though is we'll keep Gausman and he'll revert to his norms, we'll re-sign Markakis for more money than he's worth and he'll be miserably bad again, and all the while we'll be wondering, what if.
    "if he finds his old form" in his late-20s with his defense (the previously best part of his game, easily) declining? that's the silly part.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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    Gausman is easily more valuable than Heyward right now. I think Gausman will be a solid pitcher for us. Not "in love" with him, but do love that we bought low on a guy who still has some upside. Heyward only has downside from here.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I don’t really understand what the Pirates were doing, but my baseline assumption is that they aren’t believers in Glasnow or Matthews.

    Even so, putting those two and Baz in a deal for Archer is super confusing.
    they gave up on meadows too quickly.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Gausman is easily more valuable than Heyward right now. I think Gausman will be a solid pitcher for us. Not "in love" with him, but do love that we bought low on a guy who still has some upside. Heyward only has downside from here.
    Saying Heyward only has downside is a bit disingenuous. Heyward still has upside. And still has the potential to hit. He hit early on and for what ever reason you believe, lost it. The man has talent. I personally don’t want to gamble he re-finds that talent. But I wouldn’t be completely shocked if jhey has a better year next year than even this one.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Saying Heyward only has downside is a bit disingenuous. Heyward still has upside. And still has the potential to hit. He hit early on and for what ever reason you believe, lost it. The man has talent. I personally don’t want to gamble he re-finds that talent. But I wouldn’t be completely shocked if jhey has a better year next year than even this one.
    at this point, he doesn't have upside. he's an average hitter with still good, but declining defense. his WAR isn't going to get that enormous boost from it that he got earlier in his career.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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