SUNDAY MINORS FINAL 5/13/18: Record day for Riley!

[thethe]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...t-sheet-51418/

Riley and Allard make their appearance this week

[msstate7]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...t-sheet-51418/

Riley and Allard make their appearance this week

They had Riley's stats from yesterday, but not allard's

[Enscheff]

His K rate at AA/AAA is sitting right at 25%. If he was seeing a steady diet of fastballs he couldn't handle, you'd expect that number to be higher, wouldn't you?

Just asking.

Hard to say, but we almost always see a bump in K rate when guys jump to the MLB level. That 25% in AA/AAA wil be close to 30% at the MLB level. That's right on the edge of what is workable for an everyday player, especially one who isn't likely to provide much value anywhere other than at the plate.

I'm still thinking RHed Jake Lamb. These Troy Glaus comps are a bit...homerish.

[thethe]

They had Riley's stats from yesterday, but not allard's

Yeah - Thats confusing. Doesn't matter either way. The talks of Allard being a bust were very premature.

[ball4life32]

Keith Law mentioned the other week that he grades Riley as a 60 guy in the field now FWIW. Riley has 3 errors in 34 games this year and 2 of them were bad throws.

[smootness]

Hard to say, but we almost always see a bump in K rate when guys jump to the MLB level. That 25% in AA/AAA wil be close to 30% at the MLB level. That's right on the edge of what is workable for an everyday player, especially one who isn't likely to provide much value anywhere other than at the plate.

I'm still thinking RHed Jake Lamb. These Troy Glaus comps are a bit...homerish.

That's not really a hard and fast rule, though. I haven't looked at the data, I'm sure there's a bit of a spike on average, but when you look at individual players, it seems to just depend, and things like age and whether you are repeating a level seems to have an impact.

Judge - 28.5% 1st year in AAA, and his MLB %s so far are 30.7 and 29.3. Small spike, but not much.
Gallo - 39.5% 1st year in AA, 39.5% 1st year in AAA; then 36.8% and 34.5% so far in the majors.
Stanton - 28.3% in A, 29% 1st year in AA; then 31.1%, 27.6%, 28.5% to start his MLB career, and he's sitting at 27.8% for his career
Story - 33% in A+, 34.6% 1st year in AA; then 31.3%, 34.4%, 31.4% so far in the majors
Myers - He's actually a bit weird in that his second years in AA and AAA saw an increase in K-rate; but he was at 27.6% and 24.6% there and has been 25% in his major league career

So sure, it's something to keep in mind. But it's also something that absolutely doesn't have to happen, certainly not at a nearly 5% jump. Maybe it spikes a little initially, then settles? Maybe it doesn't really spike at all? Maybe it does spike. Odds are it will probably increase a little, but I'd be very surprised if he K'd at almost 30% long-term in the majors.

The bigger concern with him, IMO, is the walk rate. You would like that to be higher, especially for a guy with his power. Hopefully if the power shows up in the majors, the walks will as well, but I would like that to be a bit higher right now.

[smootness]

Kris Bryant, same thing:
25.9% in AA, 28.6% in AAA. You expect him to jump to 30+% in the majors, right?

Nope, not long-term.

30.6%
22%
19.2%
15.6%

ETA: Found this study, though it was from 7 years ago: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2011...league-k-rates

And it found that K% rose by an average of just under 1% upon graduation to the majors.

So I think it's reasonable to think Riley will K at around 26-27% in the majors, at least initially.

[Enscheff]

That's not really a hard and fast rule, though. I haven't looked at the data, I'm sure there's a bit of a spike on average, but when you look at individual players, it seems to just depend, and things like age and whether you are repeating a level seems to have an impact.

Judge - 28.5% 1st year in AAA, and his MLB %s so far are 30.7 and 29.3. Small spike, but not much.
Gallo - 39.5% 1st year in AA, 39.5% 1st year in AAA; then 36.8% and 34.5% so far in the majors.
Stanton - 28.3% in A, 29% 1st year in AA; then 31.1%, 27.6%, 28.5% to start his MLB career, and he's sitting at 27.8% for his career
Story - 33% in A+, 34.6% 1st year in AA; then 31.3%, 34.4%, 31.4% so far in the majors
Myers - He's actually a bit weird in that his second years in AA and AAA saw an increase in K-rate; but he was at 27.6% and 24.6% there and has been 25% in his major league career

So sure, it's something to keep in mind. But it's also something that absolutely doesn't have to happen, certainly not at a nearly 5% jump. Maybe it spikes a little initially, then settles? Maybe it doesn't really spike at all? Maybe it does spike. Odds are it will probably increase a little, but I'd be very surprised if he K'd at almost 30% long-term in the majors.

The bigger concern with him, IMO, is the walk rate. You would like that to be higher, especially for a guy with his power. Hopefully if the power shows up in the majors, the walks will as well, but I would like that to be a bit higher right now.

Pulling 5 random examples is not...never mind.

K rates go up when players are promoted to MLB. I would probably go ahead and project based on that fact rather than 5 random examples you pulled from the last 5 years.

[Enscheff]

Kris Bryant, same thing:
25.9% in AA, 28.6% in AAA. You expect him to jump to 30+% in the majors, right?

Nope, not long-term.

30.6%
22%
19.2%
15.6%

I won't bother getting 10 examples where K rates increased.

[Super]

it just depends on the hitter and how they adjust. some guys obviously handle it well. some have huge holes that get exploited.
i'll take the optimistic side on riley. he's already proven adept at improving weaknesses in his game.

[smootness]

Pulling 5 random examples is not...never mind.

K rates go up when players are promoted to MLB. I would probably go ahead and project based on that fact rather than 5 random examples you pulled from the last 5 years.

I understand the way data works. And yes, they are technically 5 random samples. They're also the first 5 samples I pulled based from guys with high K rates in the majors. And I wasn't trying to prove likelihood, I was just responding to your claim that his K rate absolutely will jump to nearly 30%. Finding guys who didn't see that kind of a jump does prove that wrong.

And guess what? The data actually seems to indicate it isn't even likely to jump that high...or are you just going to ignore the study that found only a slight uptick in K rate on average?

Riley's K rate is more likely to stick close to where it is now than it is to jump to 30%. So even saying that it is likely his K rate jumps to near 30% is wrong. Saying it will? You're not being realistic and data-driven, you're just jumping to a false negative conclusion about a Braves prospect. Shocker.

[striker42]

Hard to say, but we almost always see a bump in K rate when guys jump to the MLB level. That 25% in AA/AAA wil be close to 30% at the MLB level. That's right on the edge of what is workable for an everyday player, especially one who isn't likely to provide much value anywhere other than at the plate.

I'm still thinking RHed Jake Lamb. These Troy Glaus comps are a bit...homerish.

I'd be perfectly fine with a RH Jake Lamb, especially if Riley can bring average defense instead of Lamb's defensive drag.

[Enscheff]

I understand the way data works. And yes, they are technically 5 random samples. They're also the first 5 samples I pulled based from guys with high K rates in the majors. And I wasn't trying to prove likelihood, I was just responding to your claim that his K rate absolutely will jump to nearly 30%. Finding guys who didn't see that kind of a jump does prove that wrong.

And guess what? The data actually seems to indicate it isn't even likely to jump that high...or are you just going to ignore the study that found only a slight uptick in K rate on average?

Riley's K rate is more likely to stick close to where it is now than it is to jump to 30%. So even saying that it is likely his K rate jumps to near 30% is wrong. Saying it will? You're not being realistic and data-driven, you're just jumping to a false negative conclusion about a Braves prospect. Shocker.

I'm convinced you do not know how data works.

Folks want Riley to be Glaus, so that's what he will be in their heads. Just like they wanted Albies to be a 6+ WAR player this year and Acuna to be a 30/30 guy.

Nothing will change those thoughts, so there isn't a point in discussing further. Back to derpalytics you go now. Shoo, shoo.

[bravesfanMatt]

Is there evidence that players see a 5% jump in K’s when going from AAA to the majors. Or is that just a guestamation?

[smootness]

Is there evidence that players see a 5% jump in K’s when going from AAA to the majors. Or is that just a guestamation?

There is not.

There is actually evidence the jump is much, much lower than that.

But he's wrong on this one, so he won't actually use any data here.

[smootness]

I'm convinced you do not know how data works.

Still not going to comment on the actual study I linked?

[atl717]

I am not a Riley homer but you have to consider his age when you look at strikeouts. His contact ability can improve some.

[Enscheff]

There is not.

There is actually evidence the jump is much, much lower than that.

But he's wrong on this one, so he won't actually use any data here.

Sigh...here we go.

Pic taken from here: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...-major-leagues



Looking at all the guys in this study who have been in AAA at ages as old or older than Riley, anywhere from 29% (age 21) to 100% (age 26) of the guys who K's 25%+ of the time never even got 500 PAs at the MLB level. Riley will either fall into the age 21 category (29% failure rate), or the age 22 category (38% failure rate). These guys simply struck out too much to play at the MLB level.

Of the age 21/22 guys who did stick at the MLB level, 29%-31% of them lowered their K rates during their MLB career, while 31%-43% of them stayed at 25%+.

So guys like Riley failed about a third or more of the time, improved a little less than a third of the time, and stayed worse or the same a little more than a third of the time.

Are you sure you understand data?

Quick, come up with some derpalytics to counter the actual data...quick!! Explain MLEs to me from a derpalytics perspective...please!!

[Super]

Sigh...here we go.

Pic taken from here: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...-major-leagues



Looking at all the guys in this study who have been in AAA at ages as old or older than Riley, anywhere from 29% (age 21) to 100% (age 26) of the guys who K's 25%+ of the time never even got 500 PAs at the MLB level. Riley will either fall into the age 21 category (29% failure rate), or the age 22 category (38% failure rate). These guys simply struck out too much to play at the MLB level.

Of the age 21/22 guys who did stick at the MLB level, 29%-31% of them lowered their K rates during their MLB career, while 31%-43% of them stayed at 25%+.

So guys like Riley failed about a third or more of the time, improved a little less than a third of the time, and stayed worse or the same a little more than a third of the time.

Are you sure you understand data?

Quick, come up with some derpalytics to counter the actual data...quick!! Explain MLEs to me from a derpalytics perspective...please!!

???
does this support your claim that k-rates jump ~5% from AAA to MLB?

[smootness]

Sigh...here we go.

Pic taken from here: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...-major-leagues



Looking at all the guys in this study who have been in AAA at ages as old or older than Riley, anywhere from 29% (age 21) to 100% (age 26) of the guys who K's 25%+ of the time never even got 500 PAs at the MLB level. Riley will either fall into the age 21 category (29% failure rate), or the age 22 category (38% failure rate). These guys simply struck out too much to play at the MLB level.

Of the age 21/22 guys who did stick at the MLB level, 29%-31% of them lowered their K rates during their MLB career, while 31%-43% of them stayed at 25%+.

So guys like Riley failed about a third or more of the time, improved a little less than a third of the time, and stayed worse or the same a little more than a third of the time.

Are you sure you understand data?

Quick, come up with some derpalytics to counter the actual data...quick!! Explain MLEs to me from a derpalytics perspective...please!!

You've certainly proven that it is not in any way a fact that Riley's K rate will increase to near 30%. Great.