At what point do we become an actual contender?

[Southcack77]

Anytime you have a position that's projected to be a blackhole it's going to be a concern. I suspect going forward the Braves are likely to get replacement level production or worse from there. I'm just not a believer in any of the options we currently have. I also suspect Neck to regress from this point through the end of the season. Possibly Albies as well. And I don't think we are truly sold on Swanson being a legit hitter as well for the rest of the season. So while 3B may not be an issue currently if the rest of the team is firing on all cylinders it certainly will be if any/all of those things happen. If the Braves are contendors and we leave that pposition a mess with the ability for a short term fix then it's really inexcusable.

Yes. Braves have been getting some likely unsustainable production from certain guys and that has been paired with good sequencing to produce runs up and down the order. I think we've seen more games where runs were hard to come by lately and that figures to be a trend.

You would definitely want to get another positive bat, preferably with power, into the lineup to give yourself greater depth to string together runs. Ideally, you'd want someone who can make a big difference, but at a minimum you would want someone who gives you a better chance than some of these guys.

In general, Dansby showed signs of the issues that have plagued him before the injury. I'm a mild believer in Markakis, but he's not going to hit 25 HRs and hit 330. We've probably seen the best two months of Albies. Probably have not seen the best of Acuna though.

[Enscheff]

The biggest glaring need for us has to be the bullpen. How many games have they either blown for us this season, or gave up too many runs for us to have a chance to come back.....I know the 2 against Chicago and the 1 in Colorado early....those are 3 games that should be wins....

The Braves are tied for #1 in MLB for the lowest number of blown saves...3.

The Braves are #8 in BP WAR.

The Braves are #9 in BP ERA.

They will definitely need to add some help down the stretch (the BP has so far gotten very lucky with an xFIP at #27), but the Braves BP has not cost the team many wins at all compared to the rest of MLB.

[Enscheff]

mentioned this in another thread, but is 3B a "big" concern? even if our production is below replacement level, if we're getting above every where else, isn't that OK?

No, it's not.

There will be options to fix 3B at a reasonable price, and the Braves have the resources to do so.

Contenders do not punt lineup positions just because everything else is solid.

[NYCBrave]

Another thing to consider is while the NL as a whole seems pretty strong, this actually feels like a year where there aren't a few teams superior to the rest. Still think the Nats are the best team, but after that it seems pretty wide open, especially with the Dodgers doing so poorly. Would be a good time to just get into the playoffs and see what happens.

[chop2chip]

The Braves are tied for #1 in MLB for the lowest number of blown saves...3.

The Braves are #8 in BP WAR.

The Braves are #9 in BP ERA.

They will definitely need to add some help down the stretch, but the Braves BP has not cost the team many wins at all compared to the rest of MLB.

This x1000

I think we are projecting Viz’a shakiness as a reflection of the bullpen entirely. Whereas in reality, we have an elite middle relief corp .

[nsacpi]

This x1000

I think we are projecting Viz’a shakiness as a reflection of the bullpen entirely. Whereas in reality, we have an elite middle relief corp .

the pen has been lights out the past 3 or 4 weeks...just 2 shaky games from Viz, which people have overreacted to

[Super]

i'm not suggesting to not bother looking into an upgrade at 3B. just wondering if simply having someone who isn't above-replacement is necessarily a big deal if the rest of the team IS above that. i don't want to give up any legit pieces for upgrade.

[msstate7]

The Braves are tied for #1 in MLB for the lowest number of blown saves...3.

The Braves are #8 in BP WAR.

The Braves are #9 in BP ERA.

They will definitely need to add some help down the stretch (the BP has so far gotten very lucky with an xFIP at #27), but the Braves BP has not cost the team many wins at all compared to the rest of MLB.

With the braves leading the NL in RD, could that blown save number be a little deceiving?

[nsacpi]

With the braves leading the NL in RD, could that blown save number be a little deceiving?

yes...if emphasis is placed on the little part

[msstate7]

yes...if emphasis is placed on the little part

We are around bottom in save opportunities, but still pretty good in save %

[Enscheff]

With the braves leading the NL in RD, could that blown save number be a little deceiving?

The statement I quoted was about how many games the BP actually cost the Braves.

The data shows the BP has not cost the Braves very many games at all, relative to the rest of baseball. BPs simply aren't very good in the regular season because they are filled with pitchers that aren't very good.

One can certainly argue that the BP is not likely to continue it's success (and I would agree), but that unit has not actually cost the Braves many wins so far.

[Southcack77]

This x1000

I think we are projecting Viz’a shakiness as a reflection of the bullpen entirely. Whereas in reality, we have an elite middle relief corp .

Vizcaino has not been particularly bad. It's more people reacting to a few shaky appearances and wanting perfection from the closer role that relatively few closers provide. By all means, upgrade here if you can, but he hasn't been that bad.

He may well get worse, I predicted he would. But so far, so good.

[Enscheff]

The question is not "when are the Braves contenders?".

The Braves are contenders...now. The wins are banked. They are a fact.

Whether by luck or divine intervention, the Braves have won enough games early to now be projected to win 83 games. Even if they play like the crappy 75 win team everyone thinks they really are (or whatever sub 80 win mark they project), they will still win 83 games and be on the cusp of WC contention.

The question now is, "How do the Braves remain contenders without mortgaging too much of the future?".

The answer is to make responsible additions to areas of need before they drag the team down too much: 3B and the BP.

[Southcack77]

i'm not suggesting to not bother looking into an upgrade at 3B. just wondering if simply having someone who isn't above-replacement is necessarily a big deal if the rest of the team IS above that. i don't want to give up any legit pieces for upgrade.

I think having a replacement level player or below at 3B is a pretty big deal. Certainly could be in a playoff series.

I don't think the rest of the Braves lineup is slump proof enough to go to battle there.

Braves need to shuffle some assets. Things are not necessarily lined up efficiently to compete.

Not getting better at 3B would in my view be a statement that you didn't really care if you competed this year or not. Given the start, that would be a hard one to swallow. I'm not a big believer in Riley solving those issues this year, though at some point he might force you to find out. But better by far to go get a rental this year and maybe next that solves your problem.

[zitothebrave]

mentioned this in another thread, but is 3B a "big" concern? even if our production is below replacement level, if we're getting above every where else, isn't that OK?

3B is an offensive first position. If we're relying on Camargo as our main offensive production there things will hurt.

But that's for another discussion. Albies is playing way over his head. While I'm a proponent that most hitters who're young for their age in the minors outperform their minor league power numbers, Albies is doing so at an absurd rate. To put his current power rate in perspective, it's higher than Stanton's career average. There's no way that 5'9 160 pound Albies has comparable power to 6'6 240 pound Stanton. So expect regression there. Hopefully when he regresses his BB rate rises and K rate drops so his offensive value is similar to last year.

Let's look at our "established" players and where they are now vs. what they've done in their career.

Markakis career wRC+ 110, career iso .136 career BABIP .317. Best season wRC+ (2008) 138, best season BABIP (2008) .350, best season iso (2008) .185. This season he is eclipsing most of those marks (except BABIP). Now, I'm no big city lawyer, but if someone tells me that Markakis is going to have his best (or second best) season of his career in pretty much every facet (including K rate BB rate etc.) at 34, that's a tall glass of insanity. Markakis is almost locked into a massive collapse.

There was a point earlier this season where Inciarte was massively underperforming, that's basically gone. You can't say anymore "Well when Markakis collapses, Inciarte will rise" because Inciarte is rising. Infact pretty much everything but BABIP is at career norms.

Maybe the Braves truly found the magic formula to maximize Kurt Suzuki's abilities. More likely than not though, he's a potential bottom out candidate.

Preston Tucker and Ryan Flaherty. Flaherty finally came crashing down the last handful of games. He's still has a long way to crash out to reach his normal career levels (career 76 wRC+) I don't think he'll be given that opportunity, but realize this is the type of player that helped the Braves get to their position in RD/Record. Tucker is a 27 year old journeyman. Who posted the numbers of his lifetime as seat warmer for Acuna.

Last player to talk about is Freeman. Now I'm doing this kindly, because I do love Freddie, but he's on pace to have the best season he's ever had. And I really hope he does it. Unfortunately for Freddie though, health has been a concern of his. Last year he only played in 117 games, 2 years before that only 118 games, that being said, that's the only major risk with him. I can't see him slumping too much as a hitter. He may drop a little, but injuries are the concern with him.

Then we have the kids, already addressed Albies. Camargo is a decent backup IF/fill in 3B. Kind of an Omar Infante if you would. May have a season or 2 where he provides great production but typically I don't expect that much from him. Swanson to me is producing like I expected him to as a prospect. Playing ace defense, hitting the ball hard but keeping it low. This is what we were told to expect. Hopefully he keeps it up. I expect his BABIP to fall hopefully when it does his BB rate normalizes. Who knows with Acuna. I'm not gonna speculate on him. He's a legit stud.

[mfree80]

3B is an offensive first position. If we're relying on Camargo as our main offensive production there things will hurt.

But that's for another discussion. Albies is playing way over his head. While I'm a proponent that most hitters who're young for their age in the minors outperform their minor league power numbers, Albies is doing so at an absurd rate. To put his current power rate in perspective, it's higher than Stanton's career average. There's no way that 5'9 160 pound Albies has comparable power to 6'6 240 pound Stanton. So expect regression there. Hopefully when he regresses his BB rate rises and K rate drops so his offensive value is similar to last year.

Let's look at our "established" players and where they are now vs. what they've done in their career.

Markakis career wRC+ 110, career iso .136 career BABIP .317. Best season wRC+ (2008) 138, best season BABIP (2008) .350, best season iso (2008) .185. This season he is eclipsing most of those marks (except BABIP). Now, I'm no big city lawyer, but if someone tells me that Markakis is going to have his best (or second best) season of his career in pretty much every facet (including K rate BB rate etc.) at 34, that's a tall glass of insanity. Markakis is almost locked into a massive collapse.

There was a point earlier this season where Inciarte was massively underperforming, that's basically gone. You can't say anymore "Well when Markakis collapses, Inciarte will rise" because Inciarte is rising. Infact pretty much everything but BABIP is at career norms.

Maybe the Braves truly found the magic formula to maximize Kurt Suzuki's abilities. More likely than not though, he's a potential bottom out candidate.

Preston Tucker and Ryan Flaherty. Flaherty finally came crashing down the last handful of games. He's still has a long way to crash out to reach his normal career levels (career 76 wRC+) I don't think he'll be given that opportunity, but realize this is the type of player that helped the Braves get to their position in RD/Record. Tucker is a 27 year old journeyman. Who posted the numbers of his lifetime as seat warmer for Acuna.

Last player to talk about is Freeman. Now I'm doing this kindly, because I do love Freddie, but he's on pace to have the best season he's ever had. And I really hope he does it. Unfortunately for Freddie though, health has been a concern of his. Last year he only played in 117 games, 2 years before that only 118 games, that being said, that's the only major risk with him. I can't see him slumping too much as a hitter. He may drop a little, but injuries are the concern with him.

Then we have the kids, already addressed Albies. Camargo is a decent backup IF/fill in 3B. Kind of an Omar Infante if you would. May have a season or 2 where he provides great production but typically I don't expect that much from him. Swanson to me is producing like I expected him to as a prospect. Playing ace defense, hitting the ball hard but keeping it low. This is what we were told to expect. Hopefully he keeps it up. I expect his BABIP to fall hopefully when it does his BB rate normalizes. Who knows with Acuna. I'm not gonna speculate on him. He's a legit stud.

In other words... Take the worst case scenario with each player and predict that. You are bound to be right about one or two.

[cajunrevenge]

we are in it to win it! 101 wins! so now so guess. I think people are too stuck on what players have done and not what they will do. This team just has too much raw talent to fail to contend. The depth that we have now and going forward is crazy. We still got top prospects crushing AAA that could be just as valuable of an addition from a trade deadline deal would be.

[BeanieAntics]

The question is not "when are the Braves contenders?".

The Braves are contenders...now. The wins are banked. They are a fact.

Whether by luck or divine intervention, the Braves have won enough games early to now be projected to win 83 games. Even if they play like the crappy 75 win team everyone thinks they really are (or whatever sub 80 win mark they project), they will still win 83 games and be on the cusp of WC contention.

The question now is, "How do the Braves remain contenders without mortgaging too much of the future?".

The answer is to make responsible additions to areas of need before they drag the team down too much: 3B and the BP.

And I think we are actually fortunate that there are some really good 3rd base rentals available that shouldn't cost much at all. There are also a plethora of guys at 2nd or SS who also fit that mold and could play 3rd for us. If we are still on track by mid to late June, its pretty obvious that we should start looking to upgrade at 3rd. Maybe even try to package a RP and 3rd baseman for a slightly bigger return or something.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

After like 1 and a half years of it, I pretty much believe in our catching tandem's ability to sustain ~ top 5 offensive catcher production.

I agree with the others that say we're already a contender just because of how much we have overachieved, but I also share the worry about 3B and the bullpen.

As far as sustainability for the rotation, my baseless predictions are:

1. Newcomb settles in at about 3.20 ERA, control gets a little worse (4.5 BB/9). Stays near 1st/2nd starter level. ~3.5 WAR.
2. Soroka settles in at about 3.75 ERA, control stays similar (2.5 BB/9). Becomes 2nd/3rd starter level. ~2.5 WAR
3. Folty settles in at about 3.80 ERA, control improves (4 BB/9). Stays near 2nd/3rd starter level. ~3.0 WAR
4. McCarthy gets traded but is at about 4.20 when he is, Gohara returns and takes his spot to a 4.00. Solid 4th starter. ~2.0 WAR
3. Teheran goes up to 4.20 or so, solid 4th starter. ~1.0 WAR (because FIP hates him)

That rotation should be good enough to keep us contending, 12 WAR more or less.

As far as position players, Albies is not gonna be a 155 wRC+ all year, prolly more like 120. I think Acuna will balance that out by producing more. Nick will also likely hit a bit worse. Every other spot I think will be basically equal in its rate of WAR production, minus Flaherty/3B. Aka 1B around 7.0, 2B 6.0, SS 4.0, 3B 0.5-1.0, C 4.0, LF 2.5-3.0, CF 4.0, RF 3.5. So as a total that's 31.5 from position players.

Bullpen is going to regress hard. Total of 3 WAR or so (it's at 1.4 right now).

Bench is kinda bad, -0.5 WAR.

So that's 46 + 48 from replacement level...94 total. Hm. I think I'm optimistic.

[Southcack77]

After like 1 and a half years of it, I pretty much believe in our catching tandem's ability to sustain ~ top 5 offensive catcher production

Just one by one:

Albies - he's not going to hit 50 HRs, but it no longer unlikely he hits 20. He's proved the concept of power and XBH ability. So somewhere between last year and this year's start, which is a well above average hitter.

Acuna - He's crushing every ball he touches and if anything seems a little unlucky at this point. The Ks are at 27%, and they could go either way. We'll have to wait and see what pitchers have for him second time around the league.

Freeman - He's been better than last year's final numbers, but nothing about his star looks like a seriously hot streak. It's been slow and steady and injury would by your one concern here.

Markakis - sure, he isn't hitting .330 with 25 HRs. But there isn't any real reason to expect his re-found power to go completely away and he's been a fairly steady performer. This should regress, but we should be looking at something maybe a little better than last year to finish and that should have him with one of his best seasons to date. Injury again being a concern.

Flowers/Ruiz - I think expecting similar production here is entirely reasonable.

Flaherty/Bautista/Camargo - Overall production here hasn't really been that great despite Flaherty's start. If this position is upgraded, as it should be, then you should expect better production. If it isn't, there is still a reasonable chance that you get more out of it going forward than you have so far in May.

Swanson - Going from a 60 wRC+ to a 107 wRC+ is certainly a big swing, but I'm not sure that makes it unsustainable. Who is this guy Swanson? Is he the the guy he's shown twice in shorter stints, or is he the worst hitting regular in baseball? I'd lean towards him being something average or better at the plate and his defense took a major step forward.

All in all, I think this groups profiles as still above average even accounting for hot starts. But best in the majors is probably asking way too much.

That will put more stress on pitching staff that thus far has been up to the challenge as run production has gotten a little more iffy.

Much more worried about Newcomb being an Ace holding up than the hitting.