Valuing our Surplus Pitchers: Wisler, Sims, Fried

[nsacpi]

Those 3 pitchers are “non-scrub” guys that teams like the Rays and As value more highly than other organzations. They are all equally (un)valuable, but I would prefer to keep Fried because he has the best single pitch out of all 3 those guys.

If Texas blows it up I suspect they will want younger guys.

I suspect the Rangers initial ask would be Wilson. I hope our front office would be able to bargain them down from that. If not we can move on to Moose or Lowrie.

[jpx7]

So, if Toronto falls further down, what could we expect Donaldson to fetch, given injury worries this and last season, plus impeding PA? Ballparking: maybe 3 war for Donaldson over the same timeframe, plus (despite the aforementioned injury concerns), a greater likelihood of non-injury second-half than Beltre, due to relative youth. Fried plus what?

[nsacpi]

So, if Toronto falls further down, what could we expect Donaldson to fetch, given injury worries this and last season, plus impeding PA? Ballparking: maybe 3 war for Donaldson over the same timeframe, plus (despite the aforementioned injury concerns), a greater likelihood of non-injury second-half than Beltre, due to relative youth. Fried plus what?

I think with Donaldson it could be someone along the lines of Wilson, Allard or Anderson

Beltran fetched Wheeler a few years ago

[msstate7]

I think with Donaldson it could be someone along the lines of Wilson, Allard or Anderson

Beltran fetched Wheeler a few years ago

No to that deal

[jpx7]

I think with Donaldson it could be someone along the lines of Wilson, Allard or Anderson

Beltran fetched Wheeler a few years ago

So even if Donaldson’s only most likely to produce one-ish more win than Beltre, he’s likelier to net a much younger and higher-ceiling pitcher? Because of his greater likelihood for health and MVP-calibre second-half, I assume you’re presuming?

Seems a hefty jump in cost relative to likeliest wins-added value, especially with Machado also on the market; but it wouldn’t surprise me, either—in which case, we’re all right to be hoping the Braves shop in the Beltre/Moustakas/Lowrie aisle.

[msstate7]

So even if Donaldson’s only most likely to produce one-ish more win than Beltre, he’s likelier to net a much younger and higher-ceiling pitcher? Because of his greater likelihood for health and MVP-calibre second-half, I assume you’re presuming?

Seems a hefty jump in cost relative to likeliest wins-added value, especially with Machado also on the market; but it wouldn’t surprise me, either—in which case, we’re all right to be hoping the Braves shop in the Beltre/Moustakas/Lowrie aisle.

Yep. No way I trade allard, Anderson, or wilson for a rental

[nsacpi]

So even if Donaldson’s only most likely to produce one-ish more win than Beltre, he’s likelier to net a much younger and higher-ceiling pitcher? Because of his greater likelihood for health and MVP-calibre second-half, I assume you’re presuming?

Seems a hefty jump in cost relative to likeliest wins-added value, especially with Machado also on the market; but it wouldn’t surprise me, either—in which case, we’re all right to be hoping the Braves shop in the Beltre/Moustakas/Lowrie aisle.

well...i think a team contemplating a deep run in the post season might see the difference between Donaldson and Beltre as being more than 1 win

[thethe]

well...i think a team contemplating a deep run in the post season might see the difference between Donaldson and Beltre as being more than 1 win

But even then the contenders premium holds the assumption the win is worth more in that short period of time as opposed to wins down the road.

[jpx7]

well...i think a team contemplating a deep run in the post season might see the difference between Donaldson and Beltre as being more than 1 win

Fair.

[nsacpi]

But even then the contenders premium holds the assumption the win is worth more in that short period of time as opposed to wins down the road.

let's say there is a 100% premium...an extra win is valued at 2...2 extra wins might be valued at 4

that's how guys like Donaldson and Machado end up commanding a top 100 prospect

[thethe]

let's say there is a 100% premium...an extra win is valued at 2...2 extra wins might be valued at 4

And is further expounded if teams are using discount factors for future wins.

[nsacpi]

And is further expounded if teams are using discount factors for future wins.

true...but what drives it is a team like the Yankees who think they are primed for a deep run...i font think it is wise to pay this sort of premium but each year it seems there are some teams willing to do so

[chipchildress]

In a month nobody will be asking to upgrade third.

i agree!
johan will be excellent manning the hot corner and with riley lurking, a trade for a third baseman today doesn't make a lot of sense.

if the braves are going to make a move, a top line starter has got to be it. but even then, i wouldn't give away too much unless you're getting a real star for a while. the braves how they stand now are going to be good for a long time provided the braves don't start giving away assets.

[thethe]

i agree!
johan will be excellent manning the hot corner and with riley lurking, a trade for a third baseman today doesn't make a lot of sense.

if the braves are going to make a move, a top line starter has got to be it. but even then, i wouldn't give away too much unless you're getting a real star for a while. the braves how they stand now are going to be good for a long time provided the braves don't start giving away assets.

Only option for a true TOR starter would be if the mets decide to sell but I doubt they'd trade in division on Degrom or Thor.

[Russ2dollas]

I think these guys can be 5s and cost controlled until almost 30. They need to be turned into long term assets at other areas of need. I just don’t see the deal now.

I always thought sims would play up in Oakland or San Diego

[nsacpi]

I think these guys can be 5s and cost controlled until almost 30. They need to be turned into long term assets at other areas of need. I just don’t see the deal now.

I always thought sims would play up in Oakland or San Diego

they could be 5s...they could be a little more as starters...or they could end up as relievers of varying quality...expected surplus value is a way of summarizing the range of possibilities

[nsacpi]

i agree!
johan will be excellent manning the hot corner and with riley lurking, a trade for a third baseman today doesn't make a lot of sense.

if the braves are going to make a move, a top line starter has got to be it. but even then, i wouldn't give away too much unless you're getting a real star for a while. the braves how they stand now are going to be good for a long time provided the braves don't start giving away assets.

I think even if you are relatively optimistic about Camargo and Riley there is still a good case for picking up Beltre or someone similar

[chipchildress]

I think even if you are relatively optimistic about Camargo and Riley there is still a good case for picking up Beltre or someone similar

sure, but the price may not be worth it.
otherwise let's give away every prospect we have for this year's randy johnson/justin verlander if going for it this year looks like the move to make.

[nsacpi]

sure, but the price may not be worth it.
otherwise let's give away every prospect we have for this year's randy johnson/justin verlander if going for it this year looks like the move to make.

I agree the price is important. I draw the line between the group that includes Anderson/Wilson/Allard and the group that includes Wisler/Sims/Fried when it comes to acquiring someone along the lines of Beltre or Moose.

[auyushu]

true...but what drives it is a team like the Yankees who think they are primed for a deep run...i font think it is wise to pay this sort of premium but each year it seems there are some teams willing to do so

The difference this year however is almost every contending team has a good 3B. The Angels, Cards and Pirates are the only contenders besides us that don't already have really solid 3B in place. And the pirates are pretty unlikely to get into a crazy bidding war.