Valuing our Surplus Pitchers: Wisler, Sims, Fried

[nsacpi]

Wisler is 25 with 5 years of contractual control left. Career FIP is 4.87. In 2018, he has pitched to a 4.01 FIP in 3 major league starts. In AAA, he has a 3.36 FIP in 5 starts. Last year in AAA, he had a 3.62 FIP in 94 innings.

Sims is 24 with 6 years of contractual control left. Career FIP is 5.20. In AAA, he has a 3.73 FIP in 5 starts. Last year in AAA, he had a 4.28 FIP in 115 innings.

Fried is 24 with 6 years of contractual control left. Career FIP is 5.56. In AAA, he has a 3.00 FIP in 3 starts. Last year in AA, he had a 4.08 FIP in 19 starts.

I view these three as very close in terms of expected value. Wisler is a year older and has a year less of contractual control, but has a better track record in the majors and minors.

A starting pitcher who can give you 150 innings at a 4.50 FIP is worth about 1 win above replacement. That's pretty close to where I would value Wisler. You add that up for 5 years of contractual control (2 pre-arb and 3 arb) and it gives you an overall expected surplus value of about 4 wins over the years of contractual control. I think that's how a team like say the Texas Rangers might value Wisler.

And how would the Texas Rangers value Adrian Beltre. Presumably if they wanted to trade him they would eat most of the contract in order to try to maximize the return. For the second half of the season, they might project that Beltran would produce 2 wins above replacement. If they traded him for Wisler they would be pocketing a "contender's premium" of about 2 wins. Seems reasonable to me.

What about Sims and Fried?

I think Sims is slightly below Wisler, even allowing for the one year age difference and allowing for some development in that year. However, based on his style of pitching I think he has a slightly better chance of making the transition to the bullpen. So a team like the Rangers would weigh Wisler's slightly higher chances as a starting pitcher versus Sims slightly better projection as a reliever. I suspect they would prefer Wisler.

Fried is a lefty, which everything else equal boosts his value slightly. You could also argue that due to lost development time to the TJ surgery and some injury issues (blisters) last year he has a bit more development ahead of him than Sims although they are the same age. However, you also have to discount some for his sketchier health history. A team like the Rangers would probably take the upside even if it carried more injury risk. So they would favor Fried over Sims. Between Fried and Wisler, I think it would be a tossup for them.

Bottom line: I think a team like that Rangers (Beltre) or Royals (Moose) would be willing to take one of Wisler/Fried/Sims for Beltre or Moose. Moreover, they would probably be willing to eat most of the remaining salary due to those two.

[msstate7]

Let's do it then. Would you put lowrie in the same boat as mous and Beltre value wise?

[nsacpi]

Let's do it then. Would you put lowrie in the same boat as mous and Beltre value wise?

Absolutely. Although I would put him behind the other two. Try to make a deal with the Rangers first, then the Royals. Also the A's might wait a bit before declaring themselves sellers. I think we should upgrade third sooner rather than later.

[Southcack77]

If the Braves can upgrade a position at cost of one of those guys it seems reasonable to me.

[thethe]

In a month nobody will be asking to upgrade third.

[jpx7]

In a month nobody will be asking to upgrade third.

Yea, I think we all agree a trade should come sooner rather than later.

[nsacpi]

In a month nobody will be asking to upgrade third.

I suppose its possible Bautista goes on a tear.

[chipchildress]

In a month nobody will be asking to upgrade third.

i agree!
johan will be excellent manning the hot corner and with riley lurking, a trade for a third baseman today doesn't make a lot of sense.

if the braves are going to make a move, a top line starter has got to be it. but even then, i wouldn't give away too much unless you're getting a real star for a while. the braves how they stand now are going to be good for a long time provided the braves don't start giving away assets.

[thethe]

i agree!
johan will be excellent manning the hot corner and with riley lurking, a trade for a third baseman today doesn't make a lot of sense.

if the braves are going to make a move, a top line starter has got to be it. but even then, i wouldn't give away too much unless you're getting a real star for a while. the braves how they stand now are going to be good for a long time provided the braves don't start giving away assets.

Only option for a true TOR starter would be if the mets decide to sell but I doubt they'd trade in division on Degrom or Thor.

[nsacpi]

i agree!
johan will be excellent manning the hot corner and with riley lurking, a trade for a third baseman today doesn't make a lot of sense.

if the braves are going to make a move, a top line starter has got to be it. but even then, i wouldn't give away too much unless you're getting a real star for a while. the braves how they stand now are going to be good for a long time provided the braves don't start giving away assets.

I think even if you are relatively optimistic about Camargo and Riley there is still a good case for picking up Beltre or someone similar

[chipchildress]

I think even if you are relatively optimistic about Camargo and Riley there is still a good case for picking up Beltre or someone similar

sure, but the price may not be worth it.
otherwise let's give away every prospect we have for this year's randy johnson/justin verlander if going for it this year looks like the move to make.

[nsacpi]

sure, but the price may not be worth it.
otherwise let's give away every prospect we have for this year's randy johnson/justin verlander if going for it this year looks like the move to make.

I agree the price is important. I draw the line between the group that includes Anderson/Wilson/Allard and the group that includes Wisler/Sims/Fried when it comes to acquiring someone along the lines of Beltre or Moose.

[thethe]

Yea, I think we all agree a trade should come sooner rather than later.

Well done

[thethe]

I suppose its possible Bautista goes on a tear.

Not as well done

[CyYoung31]

In a month nobody will be asking to upgrade third.

Freeman to 3B?

[thethe]

But to actually make a comment on the content of the well constructed OP. I know you spoke about frieds uncharacteristic development track to where he is now so that much must be said. However, using a statistical analysis of fried for his prior year is basically irrelevant. It's well documented the non arm injury issues he had last year. He is a clean slate that requires more data to evaluate.

With all due respect having Sims included in this discussion is worthless. Wisler and Fried are at a different level. Wisler continues to intrigue. He would be a great buy low for any team. Solid number 4 type starter for many years.

[nsacpi]

But to actually make a comment on the content of the well constructed OP. I know you spoke about frieds uncharacteristic development track to where he is now so that much must be said. However, using a statistical analysis of fried for his prior year is basically irrelevant. It's well documented the non arm injury issues he had last year. He is a clean slate that requires more data to evaluate.

With all due respect having Sims included in this discussion is worthless. Wisler and Fried are at a different level. Wisler continues to intrigue. He would be a great buy low for any team. Solid number 4 type starter for many years.

I rate Sims more highly than most around here but yeah it would be a surprise if a team chose him over the other two

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

But to actually make a comment on the content of the well constructed OP. I know you spoke about frieds uncharacteristic development track to where he is now so that much must be said. However, using a statistical analysis of fried for his prior year is basically irrelevant. It's well documented the non arm injury issues he had last year. He is a clean slate that requires more data to evaluate.

With all due respect having Sims included in this discussion is worthless. Wisler and Fried are at a different level. Wisler continues to intrigue. He would be a great buy low for any team. Solid number 4 type starter for many years.

Minor quibble, but I think Wisler is a 5 for the vast majority of teams. He can be more solid than a decent amount of 5s, but he's still a 5.

[nsacpi]

Minor quibble, but I think Wisler is a 5 for the vast majority of teams. He can be more solid than a decent amount of 5s, but he's still a 5.

depends on whether you think this year's Wisler is real or a small sample mirage...and the sample gets a bit bigger if you consider spring training

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

depends on whether you think this year's Wisler is real or a small sample mirage...and the sample gets a bit bigger if you consider spring training

xwOBA of .401 this year suggests he's been lucky. Even by the eye test I think he's still getting hit hard even with better sequencing.

xFIP is 4.75 as well.

Having said that, I still think it's a toss-up between Wisler and Fried as to who is preferable. I would probably ask for/take Fried if I were the Rangers.