Crunching the numbers on a Machado trade - Potential 3B Trades

[SJ24]

Machado will cost $40 million in surplus value, and the Orioles wants arms.

The Braves are absolutely one of the few teams with the prospects to make this work.

Here's a package that would work:

Mike Soroka OR Luiz Gohara (55 FV prospects) ($22 million surplus value)
Ian Anderson OR Touki Toussaint OR Joey Wentz (50 FV prospects) ($14 million surplus value)
lower level 40 FV prospect ($5 million surplus value)

A package with just Soroka and Gohara could also work theoretically. Kyle Wright would be another guy in that 55 FV range we could trade.

I would be all over this if we don't give up Pache.

Then we could sign Machado long term.

[msstate7]

What do we do with Dansby? MM wants to play SS

No way I give up soroka, gohara, or Anderson for a rental that we can't afford to sign

[DaneHill]

No way would I give up any of those pitchers for a 2-month rental. Especially someone who insists he prefers to play SS this year. And no way Machado would sign an extension with us rather than hit free agency, and we can't compete at the price he will go for in free agency.

Saying that (about free agents), between the exciting youth movement and new stadium, the Braves must look extremely attractive to free agents out there. So y'never know....

[bravesfanMatt]

Nope

[Enscheff]

This is the exact package we identified as the cost for Machado weeks ago, and is exactly why the Braves will not be trading for Machado.

[bravesfanMatt]

So is the 40 million in surplus from the start of this season. Does that number drop each game?

[thewupk]

I think the initial assessment of Machado having a surplus value of 40 million is incorrect. I don't think he's going to play this well the remainder of the season. I think as of right now he would produce roughly 4 WAR the rest of the season. At a going rate of 9 million per WAR with what he's owed the rest of the season he's likely around 26-27 million in surplus value as of today. The package initially presented is a huge overpay.

[Enscheff]

I think the initial assessment of Machado having a surplus value of 40 million is incorrect. I don't think he's going to play this well the remainder of the season. I think as of right now he would produce roughly 4 WAR the rest of the season. At a going rate of 9 million per WAR with what he's owed the rest of the season he's likely around 26-27 million in surplus value as of today. The package initially presented is a huge overpay.

You aren’t taking into accout the contenders premium.

As we already identified in the deadline rosterbation thread weeks ago, Machado is going to require a package bigger than the one the Tigers got for Ces in 2015.

[bravesfanMatt]

You aren’t taking into accout the contenders premium.

As we already identified in the deadline rosterbation thread weeks ago, Machado is going to require a package bigger than the one the Tigers got for Ces in 2015.

I think thewupk and I were saying the same thing. Just questioning the surplus value figure. Not the package required. It will still require one of soroka or Gohard +. But a package of both is lunacy.

[Heyward]

That's way too much.

Beltre for two of Fried, Wisler, Sims works fine.

[thewupk]

You aren’t taking into accout the contenders premium.

As we already identified in the deadline rosterbation thread weeks ago, Machado is going to require a package bigger than the one the Tigers got for Ces in 2015.

Assuming Machado would be lumped in with the other 3B options it could lower the asking price with so many options available.

Not saying he won't command a lot but things have changed in the 3 years that Ces was traded.

[nsacpi]

That's way too much.

Beltre for two of Fried, Wisler, Sims works fine.

or Moose...or Lowrie...thats the aisle I see us shopping in

[Heyward]

or Moose...or Lowrie...thats the aisle I see us shopping in

I'm fine with that.

[Heyward]

This is the exact package we identified as the cost for Machado weeks ago, and is exactly why the Braves will not be trading for Machado.

Considering Moose, Lowrie, Beltre are also on the block, i wouldnt be surprised if the cost for Machado isnt as absurd as everyone says it will be.

[msstate7]

Wouldn't the dodgers make more sense for MM? Lost their SS

[Southcack77]

Camargo better straight up than Machado. No deal.

[TheBravos]

Heeeeeecccckk no!!

[JohnBoy]

How does this trade math change if they get a 3-day negotiating window before the trade goes down? Then instead of 2-3 months, you're getting 10-12 years (or more likely 3 years and 2-3 months, as Machado will demand and get a Heyward/Kershaw-style opt-out in his deal). So what's 3 1/2 years of Machado worth in a trade? 100-120 million in surplus value - minus a big number to account for his huge payday from next year?

Are you then looking at a crazy trade that would make us all cringe? -->
Gohara - 22
Wright - 22
2-3 of Anderson / Touki / others - 14
plus ++

for Machado with a 3-day window, that Baltimore wouldn't grant anyway?

The pieces, the costs, none of it fits this year. The better path is Camargo / Riley / rental for this year and maybe get a TOR starter instead. No way do you want Machado playing SS giving his poor D this year. So he goes back to 3B, messing up Riley. The puzzle pieces don't really fit. Everything about this says NO WAY should we touch trying to get Machado in trade. Just try for him as a free agent, just because. I bet more on the team acquiring one 1 TOR starter and some bullpen pieces in trade or free agency, plus big money going towards a bat in the OF after the season.

[DirkPiggler]

How does this trade math change if they get a 3-day negotiating window before the trade goes down? Then instead of 2-3 months, you're getting 10-12 years (or more likely 3 years and 2-3 months, as Machado will demand and get a Heyward/Kershaw-style opt-out in his deal). So what's 3 1/2 years of Machado worth in a trade? 100-120 million in surplus value - minus a big number to account for his huge payday from next year?

Are you then looking at a crazy trade that would make us all cringe? -->
Gohara - 22
Wright - 22
2-3 of Anderson / Touki / others - 14
plus ++

for Machado with a 3-day window, that Baltimore wouldn't grant anyway?

The pieces, the costs, none of it fits this year. The better path is Camargo / Riley / rental for this year and maybe get a TOR starter instead. No way do you want Machado playing SS giving his poor D this year. So he goes back to 3B, messing up Riley. The puzzle pieces don't really fit. Everything about this says NO WAY should we touch trying to get Machado in trade. Just try for him as a free agent, just because. I bet more on the team acquiring one 1 TOR starter and some bullpen pieces in trade or free agency, plus big money going towards a bat in the OF after the season.

1. Negotiating windows never happen, despite being mentioned by pretty much every fan base during trade season.

2. Even if that wasn't the case. Machado isn't signing anywhere before hitting the open market to test his value.

[Freshmaker]

Wouldn't the dodgers make more sense for MM? Lost their SS

Potentially, but the Dodgers right now aren't playing well at all. If they feel they can contend then they'd be a great landing spot. Don't see it right now tho given their salary situation, record and Kershaw being on the shelf