GDT: 6/5 Braves at Padres

[Super]

Some regression for Sean is likely but his current profile, imo, will lead to a low homerun rate.

probably not all-time low, however

[thewupk]

probably not all-time low, however

Certainly not. But I think it will be a healthy amount below 1 HR/9. Assuming he can keep his walks where they are I see a mid to high 3 FIP from him.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Here's Sean Newcomb's statcast page:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

[UNCBlue012]

[Enscheff]

This is true. His average exit velocity on FB/LD is the 6th lowest in baseball among starters. Couple that with the fact he's getting a true fly ball % of 22.8% you can see why he's not giving up many homeruns.

Compare that to Julio who's true fly ball rate is 32.6% and 28th highest exit velocity on LD/FB and his homerun totals are really high.

The exit velocity and angle (fly ball, etc) against Newk really shows up in the barrels against stat. Barrels is a term to defined a great launch angle with great exit velocity. These are batted ball events where hitters just crush it. Newks Barrels per batted ball event against is only 2.8%. That's the 2nd best among starters this year.

Some regression for Sean is likely but his current profile, imo, will lead to a low homerun rate.

This is absolutely true.

Newk has the profile of a guy who is projected to allow 0.8-1.0 HR/9 due to his high K rate and plus curve generating tons of GBs.

Folty, on the other hand, doesn't generate many GBs, and that leads to him being projected for a HR/9 of 1.2+.

Both are sitting around half their expected HR/9...and it is simply not sustainable. Newk's rate especially unsustainable.

Why does that matter? Because at the trade deadline the Braves are going to have to decide how many future wins they want to convert into present wins to push for a playoff run. In order to do that, they will need to accurately project their chances going forward.

The Braves aren't going to make decisions based on Albies HR/FB rate being 20%+, and they aren't going to make those projections based on Newk's HR/FB rate being 4.9%. They are going to normalize those numbers and make accurate projections.

[Super]

enscheff, what are using to say Ks typically go down for pitchers at this point? looking at just the top 30 pitchers in WAR on FG, a lot (majority?) of them had k-rate spikes after a few seasons in the league.

[Enscheff]

enscheff, what are using to say Ks typically go down for pitchers at this point? looking at just the top 30 pitchers in WAR on FG, a lot (majority?) of them had k-rate spikes after a few seasons in the league.

The best pitchers are the best pitchers because their K rates went up. That doesn't mean it's common for that to happen.

Here is the best article I've seen on pitcher aging curves. I actually have it bookmarked:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitc...and-relievers/

TLDR:

Velocity decreases immediately, but K/9 stays flat until the mid-20s due to improved control (using BB/9 as a proxy). This push/pull between velocity declining and control improving keeps FIP flat-ish until the late 20s. By the time a SP get into his late 20s, it's time to unload him...aka the Rays model.

[thewupk]

Velocity decreases immediately, but K/9 stays flat until the mid-20s due to improved control (using BB/9 as a proxy). This push/pull between velocity declining and control improving keeps FIP flat-ish until the late 20s. By the time a SP get into his late 20s, it's time to unload him...aka the Rays model.

see Julio Teheran

[bravesfanMatt]

Has anyone noticed Newks fastball is different speeds. Last night the gun was showing 89 to 95 but living mostly in the 91 to 94ish range. Wonder if he is taking some off to work on control.

[Orphan Black]

Has anyone noticed Newks fastball is different speeds. Last night the gun was showing 89 to 95 but living mostly in the 91 to 94ish range. Wonder if he is taking some off to work on control.

I noticed that too and I think he took some off once they got the 8 run lead. I think he was trying not to walk anyone.

[Enscheff]

Has anyone noticed Newks fastball is different speeds. Last night the gun was showing 89 to 95 but living mostly in the 91 to 94ish range. Wonder if he is taking some off to work on control.

I've seen Newk toss them up there feeling for strikes. Not a fan of that tactic, at all.

Learn to repeat at 93 rather than varying speeds for control...which is probably counterproductive.

[Southcack77]

How do we know his K rate won't go back up? If that happens, doesn't it offset some of the regression?

Honestly, I agree with the underlying message that Newcomb is going to regress.

The tone seems fairly dire, but it's not that big a deal unless you thought Newcomb and Folty were both #1 lock down aces.

I don't see any particular reason why the decline in his K rate over two months is necessarily determinative. It would seem entirely possible for it to pop back up with more of a sample. Unless their is a physical issue driving it, but I don't know why we would conclude that.

Personally, I think given Newcomb's control problems that his pitching more to contact isn't such a bad thing. May well let him stay deeper into games, given his weak contact rates.

While that may spike his results somewhat, it may well be better for the team to trade that off for longer outings. Don't know, depends on how you feel about the depth of the Braves pen.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Honestly, I agree with the underlying message that Newcomb is going to regress.

The tone seems fairly dire, but it's not that big a deal unless you thought Newcomb and Folty were both #1 lock down aces.

I don't see any particular reason why the decline in his K rate over two months is necessarily determinative. It would seem entirely possible for it to pop back up with more of a sample. Unless their is a physical issue driving it, but I don't know why we would conclude that.

Personally, I think given Newcomb's control problems that his pitching more to contact isn't such a bad thing. May well let him stay deeper into games, given his weak contact rates.

While that may spike his results somewhat, it may well be better for the team to trade that off for longer outings. Don't know, depends on how you feel about the depth of the Braves pen.

With predictive stats/sabermetrics, I'd rather not just use 1 stat. That's my only case here. I'd rather use the whole deal.

Yes Newcomb is getting lucky. No, it's not dire right now if you use the whole shebang of stuff available to you and xwOBA and xSLG off pitchers is available. Both are minimal differences. Yes he likely shouldn't be allowing so few HR, but his xSLG is like .302. That's not far from the actual SLG off him.