New Fangraphs Top 131 Prospects

[BeanieAntics]

well not really. is anybody claiming wright should be untouchable? ok then.

Yes. Its literally happened 3 times in this thread.


"lucas sims is on the braves roster. you've said nothing particularly noteworthy here.
anyway, the hype on a prospect barely cracking top 100 lists proves my point that trading him could be a valuable move."

Me saying 3 years to bust or be in the MLB was in regards to you saying he might not get it until he is 28. Technically its true that it COULD take that long. But lets be real, in all likelihood we will know exactly who Touki is by the time he is 24. Plus the way you said it made it seem like Touki is down in AA struggling to figure things out. But the dude has been really good. Thewupk is right, its simply prospect fatigue. If I told someone that we had a 21 year old in AA with a 3.29 ERA while striking out 11 per 9, anyone would be excited about that guys upside. And I would much rather have Touki's upside than the high floor of Wentz, which is kinda where this discussion started.

[thewupk]

well not really. is anybody claiming wright should be untouchable? ok then.

Most people, I think, consider our #5 overall pick from last year as untouchable as untouchable as a pitching prospect gets. Clearly all prospects can be moved in the right deal. And Touki is pitching quite a bit better than Wright this year too.

[Southcack77]

Touki has prospect fatigue. That's really all there is to it. He's 8 months younger than Wright. If Touki went to college, we drafted him last year, and he went on to do what he's doing now everyone would be all over him as an untouchable.

that's a nice point. They've both pitched 60 something IP in AA this year:

Kyle Wright
22 yr 8 months
AA 63 IP
8.14 K/9
4.29 BB/9
3.52 FIP

Touki Touissant
21 yr 11 months
AA 67 IP
11.01 K/9
4.03 BB/9
3.69 FIP

I think Touki probably does have the benefit of having been working on specific things in the minors longer than Wright has and Wright has been unlucky. Touki might be more free in what he throws at the moment.

to me Touki turned the corner last year and he has improved across the board so far this season in the peripherals. Still pretty excited about him. Not yet worried about Wright. But every chance Touki ends up being the better pitcher.

[nsacpi]

I don't think anyone is untouchable. For the right deal, I would trade anyone on my "keepers" list.

But for the kind of trades we are contemplating for the deadline, I don't think so. We should be able to get Moose or Beltre for a combination of say Fried plus a lesser prospect.

[nsacpi]

that's a nice point. They've both pitched 60 something IP in AA this year:

Kyle Wright
22 yr 8 months
AA 63 IP
8.14 K/9
4.29 BB/9
3.52 FIP

Touki Touissant
21 yr 11 months
AA 67 IP
11.01 K/9
4.03 BB/9
3.69 FIP

I think Touki probably does have the benefit of having been working on specific things in the minors longer than Wright has and Wright has been unlucky. Touki might be more free in what he throws at the moment.

to me Touki turned the corner last year and he has improved across the board so far this season in the peripherals. Still pretty excited about him. Not yet worried about Wright. But every chance Touki ends up being the better pitcher.

right...age is the same...but developmental age is not quite the same...i think we still have to rate Wright ahead of Touki

[chipchildress]

Yes. Its literally happened 3 times in this thread.


"lucas sims is on the braves roster. you've said nothing particularly noteworthy here.
anyway, the hype on a prospect barely cracking top 100 lists proves my point that trading him could be a valuable move."

Me saying 3 years to bust or be in the MLB was in regards to you saying he might not get it until he is 28. Technically its true that it COULD take that long. But lets be real, in all likelihood we will know exactly who Touki is by the time he is 24. Plus the way you said it made it seem like Touki is down in AA struggling to figure things out. But the dude has been really good. Thewupk is right, its simply prospect fatigue. If I told someone that we had a 21 year old in AA with a 3.29 ERA while striking out 11 per 9, anyone would be excited about that guys upside. And I would much rather have Touki's upside than the high floor of Wentz, which is kinda where this discussion started.

nothing to do with prospect fatigue. more to do with your reading comprehension.

trading wentz or touki has nothing to do with ceilings and floors. it's about obtaining value.

folty is how old? you think it's unreasonable that touki could take a similar amount to time to gain consistency?

[TheBravos]

Most people, I think, consider our #5 overall pick from last year as untouchable as untouchable as a pitching prospect gets. Clearly all prospects can be moved in the right deal. And Touki is pitching quite a bit better than Wright this year too.

Even with the stats and age....Wright holds a lot more value. You could make Wright the cornerstone of almost any trade. Even though Touki is younger with better stats....he holds WAY less value. It’s why I never consider trading Touki because you never get the value back in a trade.

[chipchildress]

i guess i have to spell it out.

option 1: keep and develop touki. maybe he turns into dwight gooden next year, but more likely he takes years to develop into a big time mlb starter, if that ever happens.

option 2: based on his recent success, talent, and hype, include him in a trade to help win the world series next year.



again the prospect fatigue thing is boring and exactly backward. touki's status as a prospect right now is growing. sorry for not being more clear earlier.

[thewupk]

Even with the stats and age....Wright holds a lot more value. You could make Wright the cornerstone of almost any trade. Even though Touki is younger with better stats....he holds WAY less value. It’s why I never consider trading Touki because you never get the value back in a trade.

I don't think the difference in trade value from a mid 20's top 100 prospect to a mid 50's top 100 prospect is all that large. Ones a 55 FV prospect and the other is a 50 FV prospect. And I think that is right given where Wright was drafted a year ago. My point is that had Touki been drafted that high last year then he would be be as high if not higher than where Wright is right now. People like to get on Touki because he's been around for awhile and is just now starting to figure things out. He could be someone that continues to jump up the lists if he doesn't have any lapses towards the end of the season.

[chipchildress]

Even with the stats and age....Wright holds a lot more value. You could make Wright the cornerstone of almost any trade. Even though Touki is younger with better stats....he holds WAY less value. It’s why I never consider trading Touki because you never get the value back in a trade.

that's a great point and the same point i made about giving povse away two years ago.

but if touki is as awesome as you guys say, but this time next year he'll be a top 30 prospect anyway and there will be little difference between the two prospects.

then again, wright is getting knocked around pretty good at AA. maybe he's better be traded asap before the luster comes off.

[chipchildress]

can we talk about why wright is supposedly so much more valuable than touki?

the data doesn't really back it up at this point.

[Southcack77]

nothing to do with prospect fatigue. more to do with your reading comprehension.

trading wentz or touki has nothing to do with ceilings and floors. it's about obtaining value.

folty is how old? you think it's unreasonable that touki could take a similar amount to time to gain consistency?

Folty is closing in on 27.

took him 5-6 years in the minors and three years in the majors to get to a top 3 rotation production.

[chipchildress]

right...age is the same...but developmental age is not quite the same...i think we still have to rate Wright ahead of Touki

why?

[chipchildress]

Folty is closing in on 27.

took him 5-6 years in the minors and three years in the majors to get to a top 3 rotation production.

and the braves want to win next year.

[nsacpi]

why?

development age is different...even at a great college program like Vandy a player will not develop as fast as they would in a pro environment

this means Wright likely has more development ahead of him than Touki

[thewupk]

can we talk about why wright is supposedly so much more valuable than touki?

the data doesn't really back it up at this point.

Draft status, even a year later, does still matter. That said, 24 to 51 isn't some great chasm either.

[msstate7]

and the braves want to win next year.

I hope they want to win 4 years from now too

[Southcack77]

why?

Touki has been working out his issues with the Braves for several seasons and is coming out the other side.

Wright just had a little short season last year where they probably were fine with him just throwing. This would be the first year where they've likely been tinkering and focusing a whole lot on weaknesses.

But honestly, just looking at the grades that fangraphs put on their stuff, the biggest difference is that Wright has more perceived command. They very well may finish this season bunched much closer together.

[Enscheff]

I like that they included the Up or Down trending arrows too. None of them come as a surprise.

FG has also started including FVs like 45+, which is a way to further differentiate these guys. I would guess when THE BOARD is updated the Braves list will look something like:

Acuna 70, Up (exactly what intelli-Braves expected him to be, with better speed)
Soroka 55+
Wright 55/55+, Down (he has not been impressive, just ok)
Gohara 55, Down (pitching mop up work in the BP is not a good look)
Pache 55
Riley 50+, Up (hopefully he picks it back up after coming off the DL)
Anderson 50/50+
Touki 50 (I keep forgetting how young he is)
Fried 50, Down (he just keeps getting shelled at the MLB level, hopefully the SI works)
Wentz 50, Down (never understood the hype with him)
Waters 50, Up (is he still a worse prospect than Randy Ventura?)
Stewart 50 (close to where I expected him to debut on these lists, though he'd be above Fried for me)
Cumberland 50, Up (this is surprising...)
Allard 50

Simply put, 4 Ups, 4 Downs...and a couple of the Downs are a pretty big deal. The Braves need one of Wright/Gohara to take off.

[Jay212033]

This list.....smh