3 more with the option.Originally Posted by sturg33
3 more with the option.
No idea, but it's clear the Braves have $5M or less to upgrade the roster at the deadline.
If Camargo is playing well, they could just do one move to upgrade the pen via a lefty with conventional platoon splits.
We don't have a great bench, but we can live with it if everyone is healthy. Whoever is not playing of Flowers/Suzuki will continue to be our main pinch hitter in late inning games where we are tied or behind.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Tucker as the LHed option.
Could be worse.
To expand on this a little, I looked at the FIP and xFIP over innings 7-9 for every team. It's not perfect, but it's a pretty good indication of BP platoon strength.
vs RHH: 3.32 FIP (#9), 3.68 xFIP (#9)
vs LHH: 4.08 FIP (#17), 4.41 xFIP (#20)
So yes, the Braves could use BP help, and especially help with getting out LHed hitters. They are Top 10 vs RHed hitters, and Bottom 10 vs LHed hitters.
Biddle has reverse splits, consistent with his minor league career.
Sam Freeman has reverse splits this year. Last year he had conventional splits. For his career, he is pretty close to neutral.
So although we have some lefties in the pen, we could use someone like Avilan who has conventional splits.
In contrast, our righties tend to be strong against right-handed hitting. So really no need to reinforce that side.
We can get a cheap upgrade to take care of this imbalance. We don't need a high leverage guy. I'm comfortable entrusting innings 7-9 to Winkler, Minter and Vizcaino.
Just to add another point related to the above. Our starting rotation has four RHP. So when one of those guys needs some help finishing say the 6th inning, the need will usually be for a lefty reliever (that's why Sam Freeman leads the bullpen in innings and appearances). The opposing lineup when one of our RHP is starting will often be stacked with lefty hitters. This consideration reinforces the data showing the need for another lefty in the pen with conventional splits.
Last edited by nsacpi; 06-20-2018 at 05:21 PM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
I think the target that makes the most sense to me is Alex Claudio. He was very good in '16 and '17, while he is having a bit of a down year this year so could probably be acquired fairly cheaply. But the reason he is struggling so bad is he has been awful vs. RHH. Righties have a .987 OPS against him currently while lefties have a .583. So even if he doesn't improve back up to his career norms, he would be a pretty effective LOOGY. He will probably improve those numbers vs lefties as well. The past two seasons he held lefty hitters to an OPS below .450. I think he would be a great add to the bullpen and wouldn't come at a great cost.
Claudio is on my list too. He would also be under control for 3 arb seasons after this year. Avilan would be under control in 2019 as well. It is not a big deal for this type of player, but to the extent they are not just rentals it would be a plus.
Avilan career FIP against lefties 2.93 and against righties 3.54
Claudio career FIP against lefties 2.79 and against righties 3.76
Aaron Loup career FIP against lefties 3.00 and against righties 3.78
Loup would be a free agent after this year. Those are all low salary players who also would not cost much in the way of prospects. We could probably get any of them for Wisler.
For comparison:
Sam Freeman career FIP against lefties 4.41 and against righties 3.62
Biddle 8.78 against lefties and 2.39 against righties
Minter 0.89 against lefties and 2.78 against rigthies
Last edited by nsacpi; 06-21-2018 at 10:36 AM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Any teams desperate for pitching that would take on McCarthy's 11.5 million or whatever is left?
IF I was the braves of a couple years ago I'd want McCarthy. He's solid. He's cheap next year. Get him now for nothing and flip him at next year's deadline. Use him to keep innings off of young arms.
Padres et al should be in IMO.
Bargain shopping gets your through the daily grind, but 7 times out of 10 you're getting what you pay for.
Quality things cost more than you would like to give up. Don't die with three broken $30 dollar DVD players in the attic. Your kids don't want to throw that stuff away and it won't make you all that happy either.
When the pixie dust abandons Sanchez, we will move McCarthy back to the rotation. Sanchez has had extreme BABIP (.222) good luck this year. McCarthy has had BABIP (.338) bad luck. He is a better starting pitcher than Sanchez imo and likely will be part of our rotation in the second half.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Thing is we have a relatively small flaw in our bullpen construction that will be cheap to fix. So why not do it.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Bingo- and likely a solid log man should we make the postseason.
Ivermectin Man
New AA interview indicates that money is not as big of an issue as prospect capital.
"There hasn’t been a baseball opportunity that money has stopped us from doing it"
Sounds like while money is a consideration it's not as important as what they will lose in prospects.
I'm not sure what that means. I don't think he can say that money is a problem without pissing off the people he reports to. It's not my fault that all your dreams didn't come true--it's the evil money men. Not sure about that.
I will consign myself to thinking nothing much is going to happen and be pleasantly surprised if it does.
Shouldn't pen problems be better fixed from within? Why not be careful with Gohara/Fried/Allard/Wright's innings during the second half and keep all of them rather than wasting prospects on a rental? You'd also have them all as rotation candidates down the stretch with a shift of McCarthy and Sanchez to the pen.
The later this gets (and after listening to that DOB podcast, it certainly doesn't sound like AA's in ANY hurry), the more I like waiting things out so long as no one has stepped up for Beltre. You can keep playing Camargo somewhat regularly to stay sharp and keep Beltre healthy and use him as a serious weapon off the bench on days he doesn't play and minimize the prospect cost even further than trading for Machado or Donaldson.
Always hard to translate GM-Speak correctly, but it sure sounds like he's high enough on Riley to expect him to be seriously considered above all other options for 2019 IF he finishes the season strong after he comes back.
The longer Strasburg's down and Harper struggles, the longer AA can wait, and at this point I'd like to hold onto everybody we can - if he wants to make an acquisition of anything bigger than Beltre, wait until this winter.
Last edited by clvclv; 06-21-2018 at 12:33 PM.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
You guys nailed 3 of the 4 targets I identified before I was able to make my post.
The 4th name I'd add to this list is Blevins from the Mets.
I hadn't thought of Blevins. We did make a deal with the Mets a couple years ago (Uribe and Kelly Johnson for Gant and Whalen) when they were buyers and we were sellers. I think Blevins is a little less attractive that the other 3 guys (Avilan, Loup and Claudio). He's making a little more money than they are this year. Also he is having a very poor year. Could be a small sample thing. A third consideration is the last couple years he's been simply awful against righties. I know the main objective is to get someone who can get lefty hitters out. But lets say you have an inning where the other team has LRL coming up. Ideally, you have a pitcher you are ok facing all three. Avilan, Loup and Claudio seem to be a bit more serviceable in that kind of situation.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
First, I don't think we will will need to give up much for someone like Avilan, Loup or Claudio. Certainly not a prospect like Gohara, Fried, Allard or Wright. I think we can get them for Wisler, who will be out of options next year.
Second, if we are playing meaningful baseball in September and October, I want someone with some experience in the role we are giving them. So I'd rather have Avilan/Loup/Claudio as our situational lefty rather than a promising prospect who might have a better future but might not be used to that kind of situation: pitching on consecutive days, warming up several times, coming into the middle of the inning with men on base, etc.
McCarthy and Sanchez don't really figure into this conversation because we are discussing the fact that there is a need for a situational lefty for the pen.
Last edited by nsacpi; 06-21-2018 at 01:02 PM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
clvclv (06-21-2018)
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