Mike Trout and the Quest to be the Best

[zitothebrave]

I don't think enough can be said about this man.

In the history of the game, through their 27 year old season, only 6 players currently have a higher fWAR than Trout: Ott, A-Rod, Foxx, Hornsby, Mantle, and Cobb. And Trout is only in his 26 year old season. Assuming he doesn't fall off a cliff before the end of this season, he will pass all but Mantle and Cobb, needing only about a 5 WAR season to pass them.

Now we have to look at the quest for the best ever and consider some things. Trout is quite likely to finish this season in the top 90 players in terms of fWAR of all time. To climb into the top 30 from where he is now, he needs about 25 fWAR, or for him an average of less than 3 seasons of work. So assuming relative health and no unforeseen epic collapses trout will likely be one of the 30 best players in MLB history before turning 30. How can he keep climbing at this point? At this point his career win totals will rival Chipper Jones, Wade Boggs, and teammate Albert Pujols. Truly great, but not the best ever. Now who is the best ever? If we toss Ruth down a peg because he didn't play integrated ball and his competition was pretty miserable, and if we toss Bonds down a peg because of Roids, that would be WIllie Mays. 149.9 fWAR. Currently about 89 higher than trout. So the question comes in how can he get to that total. Well first lets project that he stays relatively healthy into his early 30s. He's a virtual lock for about 9fWAR per season. But there's no way he can continue that well into his 30s. So lets say he continues that all the way until he's 33. So throwing this season into that average, that would be 8 seasons at 9 per would add on 72 fWAR. Something that's not super hard to do. If he can stick around another few years being a 4-5 fWAR player, than it's certainly possible he could pass Mays if he can stay a starter into his late 30s. So the basic math is up til 25 about 55 fWAR, 26-33 72 fWAR, 34-40 35 fWAR. ALl that comes to 162, which is well past Mays, but I wouldn't bet on the finish being that strong for Trout.

I think it's truly fascinating that we're looking at one of the best to play the game. A player who's almost certainly the best to play the game up til this age. What will determine his final ranking though is ultimately health. I see nothing stopping this man from being crowned one of the inner circle hall of famers and maybe the best to ever play the game mentioned in the same breath as Ruth, Aaron, Mays, Williams, Cobb, and Musial.

[nsacpi]

merican acuna

[msstate7]

Off topic, but how do fangraphs and BR come up with def value and dWAR for players that played years in the past? Just wondering how accurate comparing WAR for today's players vs old timers is

[The Chosen One]

Get it done AA.

[chop2chip]

It’s not an opinion that will be very much liked, but Barry Bonds is the greatest. There isn’t a player in any sport ever that can rival the stretch of dominance he had the early aughts. Look at the numbers, they aren’t even close to real.

Yeah, yeah, yeah... steroids. Doesn’t change what I saw. He’s probably the last remnant of an era where baseball was nationally relevant.

[jpx7]

Pretty sure I was clearly told Bryce Harper is the best evar.

[zitothebrave]

Off topic, but how do fangraphs and BR come up with def value and dWAR for players that played years in the past? Just wondering how accurate comparing WAR for today's players vs old timers is

It isn't hyper accurate, but there is some data. It's not quite as accurate as UZR and DRS, but still decent, it uses Total Zone

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/tz-tzl/

[thewupk]

It’s not an opinion that will be very much liked, but Barry Bonds is the greatest. There isn’t a player in any sport ever that can rival the stretch of dominance he had the early aughts. Look at the numbers, they aren’t even close to real.

Yeah, yeah, yeah... steroids. Doesn’t change what I saw. He’s probably the last remnant of an era where baseball was nationally relevant.

I would agree that Bonds is the greatest baseball player to ever play. The fact that Trout has a chance to match him is pretty incredible. I have a feeling in 10-15 years my top 5 overall will be Bonds, Trout, Ruth, Williams, and Mays in no particular order.

[Carp]

A roided Bonds was the best hitter outside of Ted Williams and Ruth. But he still blatantly cheated, so he is completely tossed out of discussion.

[Southcack77]

The calculation of the defensive element of WAR for historical players seems pretty crude. So crude as to make comparisons based on those numbers to be of questionable use in my book.

People do like to compare things and try to pretend there is some certainty to it though.

Trout is amazing.

[thewupk]

The calculation of the defensive element of WAR for historical players seems pretty crude. So crude as to make comparisons based on those numbers to be of questionable use in my book.

People do like to compare things and try to pretend there is some certainty to it though.

Trout is amazing.

Crude..yes. Close to being as accurate as what we have now...no. Still valuable...absolutely. It's still a system that after it's done has luminaries like Mays, Andruw, Robinson, and Smith being the best at their positions. It's doing something right.

[thewupk]

A roided Bonds was the best hitter outside of Ted Williams and Ruth. But he still blatantly cheated, so he is completely tossed out of discussion.

Performance enhancement was going on way before Bonds and will be happening for years to come. I'm not going to ostracize one player because people got butt hurt he set the homerun record.

[Southcack77]

I would agree that Bonds is the greatest baseball player to ever play. The fact that Trout has a chance to match him is pretty incredible. I have a feeling in 10-15 years my top 5 overall will be Bonds, Trout, Ruth, Williams, and Mays in no particular order.

Roided Bonds was the most unreal thing I've ever seen. he went a whole damn season crushing everything that he was given to hit, which wasn't much. We thought we'd seen something from the roid boys before, but that really took it to the next level.

I always had some sympathy for him because he was the best player in baseball and then got eclipsed by players who frankly couldn't hold his jock. He chose to join them in their cheating and he proved his point, I would say.

I have less sympathy for the one trick hacks who had somewhat undeserved runs as elite players.

[thewupk]

Roided Bonds was the most unreal thing I've ever seen. he went a whole damn season crushing everything that he was given to hit, which wasn't much. We thought we'd seen something from the roid boys before, but that really took it to the next level.

I always had some sympathy for him because he was the best player in baseball and then got eclipsed by players who frankly couldn't hold his jock. He chose to join them in their cheating and he proved his point, I would say.

I have less sympathy for the one trick hacks who had somewhat undeserved runs as elite players.

I fee like when Bonds saw what Big Mac and Sosa did in 98 plus him getting hurt in 99 was a 'hold my beer' moment.

[Carp]

Performance enhancement was going on way before Bonds and will be happening for years to come. I'm not going to ostracize one player because people got butt hurt he set the homerun record.

I will ostracize any roid user from these sort of discussions. I don't blame them for taking roids. I probably would have been tempted as well, especially if I was a borderline MLB player and the difference could mean millions of dollars and setting my family up for generations. But steroids clearly spiked their numbers to levels previously unseen. Bonds accomplishments are completely watered down now.

[thewupk]

I will ostracize any roid user from these sort of discussions. I don't blame them for taking roids. I probably would have been tempted as well, especially if I was a borderline MLB player and the difference could mean millions of dollars and setting my family up for generations. But steroids clearly spiked their numbers to levels previously unseen. Bonds accomplishments are completely watered down now.

Steroids were a factor. There is no doubt about that. But at the same time you were getting smaller ballparks and had two 4 expansion teams within like 5 years. The overall quality of pitching was a joke.

[smootness]

He won't ever be considered the best, but that doesn't mean it won't end up being true. He doesn't do anything that makes him stand out from the crowd of the best ever - he just does just about everything at an elite level.

[Enscheff]

At what point is Trout considered as good as Acuna? Taylor...?

[thewupk]

He won't ever be considered the best, but that doesn't mean it won't end up being true. He doesn't do anything that makes him stand out from the crowd of the best ever - he just does just about everything at an elite level.

I dunno. The old generation will always revere the Mays, Williams, and Ruth's of the world and rightly so. But the current WAR generation is going nowhere. People that are new to baseball or will become baseball fans will mainly hear about WAR totals as consideration for best player. And Trout is going to be that guy. The old generation will likely never consider Trout the best but the current and future generations very well may depending on how his career shapes up. And going forward that's all that will matter.

[zitothebrave]

He won't ever be considered the best, but that doesn't mean it won't end up being true. He doesn't do anything that makes him stand out from the crowd of the best ever - he just does just about everything at an elite level.

The thing is he does everything well. There's no chink in his armor. He has power, he hits for average, he walks, he steals, he just generally runs the bases well. He's a great but not legendary defender. There isn't a weakness to his game. For a counting stat comparison, since 1960, only Darryl Strawberry and A-Rod had 150+ Home Runs and Stolen bases before their 26 year old season. The man is truly great at everything. That's where he's most similar to Bonds, Mays, and Aaron. He doesn't have a flaw to his game. If he has one it's his K rate, but it really hasn't slowed him down at all yet, I don't anticipate it slowing him down anytime soon.