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Thread: Depth Check at the Halfway Mark

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    Depth Check at the Halfway Mark

    Contending teams have to consider weaknesses not just in their regular lineup and starting rotation. They have to consider scenarios about injuries after the deadline and how well they are equipped to deal with injuries at each position. So lets have a look at the team's depth and see where the needs might be.

    Catcher: We have two quality players in Suzuki and Flowers. If one went down, the other would play three-quarters of the games rather than half. We have replacement level guys in Stewart and Brantley in AAA.

    Infield: On the major league bench we have Culberson, Flaherty and Santana. In the minors, Ruiz and Franco. Let's be honest here. They are all replacement level players. Culberson has been magical. But look at his history and his strikeout and walk rates this year and his BABIP this year and you can see it is 90% pixie dust. Acquiring a player who is above replacement level would help a lot whether he be a starter or bench player. I'm not sure the distinction matters.

    Outfield: Santana, Culberson and Tucker are the options. Replacement level players.

    Starting pitcher: The rotation currently has Folty, Newk, Teheran, Sanchez, Fried. There are some other options currently on the DL: McCarthy and Soroka. And other options in AAA: Allard and Gohara. I think our depth with starting pitching is pretty good, even accounting for the greater likelihood of injury.

    Right handed relievers: We have Viz, Winkler, Carle, Moylan, Wisler and Jackson in the majors. Phillips, Parsons and Sims in AAA. I'm ok with this group. Not ok if Viz is not able to come back and return to the form he has shown so far this year. There is a potential need for an acquisition here depending on Viz' health.

    Left handed relievers: Minter, Freeman, Biddle. Potentially Fried and Gohara could round out this group. Given the reverse splits of Biddle and Freeman, I think there is a need for a situational lefty.

    Summary: It is little remarked on around here, but except for catcher we have a bench of replacement level players. Pixie dust on Flaherty early in the season and Culberson more recently has camouflaged this. But it is the reality. A replacement level bench is ok if you don't plan on contending, but I think our ambitions are now to play meaningful baseball in September and October. It doesn't matter if you call a player like Solarte a regular or a bench player. His effect is to improve our depth and I think there is clearly a need to do that. Assuming it can be done at reasonable cost, we should be looking to acquire someone like that.

    Looking at things from a depth perspective also highlights the fact that we are in better shape as far as starting pitching goes and acquiring someone like Hamels is less of a priority.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 07-01-2018 at 09:56 AM.
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    I agree with the assessment that starting pitching is not a priority, our rotation as it is has the lowest ERA in the NL for starters. I think we could use 2 relievers, one left and one right. Wisler, Moylan neither strikes fear in opposing batters, Wisler can return to minors when McCarthy is ready, McCarthy can take over long relief. Jackson I guess is OK as a mop up kind of guy, just not for use in high leverage situations. I do not want to see Fried used as a reliever again, his value is in starting, period. One bench guy with power would be a welcome addition to the bench, other than that I am OK with what we are putting on the field. In case you missed it, I think it is time to move on from Moylan....
    Last edited by depley; 07-01-2018 at 09:59 AM.

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    My wishlist...

    Sergio romo
    Jerry Blevins
    Mous (straight platoon with Camargo. One who sits becomes the PH option with backup catcher that day)

    Interestingly, if you take out Blevins appearances vs the braves, here's his numbers...

    15.1 ip 10 h 5 er 10 bb 15 k
    Era = 2.98

    Obviously the walks are high, but I'd bet on those coming down.

    All 3 are in last year of contract, so cost would be reasonable. I'm from Mississippi, and enscheff would tell you, Mississippians love bargain shopping

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    My wishlist...

    Sergio romo
    Jerry Blevins
    Mous (straight platoon with Camargo. One who sits becomes the PH option with backup catcher that day)

    Interestingly, if you take out Blevins appearances vs the braves, here's his numbers...

    15.1 ip 10 h 5 er 10 bb 15 k
    Era = 2.98

    Obviously the walks are high, but I'd bet on those coming down.

    All 3 are in last year of contract, so cost would be reasonable. I'm from Mississippi, and enscheff would tell you, Mississippians love bargain shopping
    a couple observations

    1) Royals are in penny pinching mode and unlikely to pick up any of Moose's remaining salary

    2) Even excluding his bad numbers against the Braves Blevins still has a 15 to 10 strikeout to walk ratio.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 07-01-2018 at 11:06 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    a couple observations

    1) Royals are in penny punching mode and unlikely to pick up any of Moose's remaining salary

    2) Even excluding his bad numbers against the Braves Blevins still has a 15 to 10 strikeout to walk ratio.
    Obviously shopping cheap requires a little luck, but here's Blevins k to bb numbers the last 3 full seasons...

    2014 = 66 to 23
    2016 = 52 to 15
    2017 = 69 to 24

    I'm betting on his ratio to get much better 2nd half

    Mous has a 6.5 million contract. How much of that would be stilled owed if the braves got him?
    Last edited by msstate7; 07-01-2018 at 10:43 AM.

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    I said at the beginning of the year that we lack positional depth at the ML level and high minors, and that it could hurt us in the second half. Thethe of course said it wasn’t a problem.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CyYoung31 View Post
    I said at the beginning of the year that we lack positional depth at the ML level and high minors, and that it could hurt us in the second half. Thethe of course said it wasn’t a problem.
    Austin Riley getting hurt could end up being a big deal. Had he continued current pace, he could've been our 3b 2nd half with Camargo being really strong bench guy

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Obviously shopping cheap requires a little luck, but here's Blevins k to bb numbers the last 3 full seasons...

    2014 = 66 to 23
    2016 = 52 to 15
    2017 = 69 to 24

    I'm betting on his ratio to get much better 2nd half

    Mous has a 6.5 million contract. How much of that would be stilled owed if the braves got him?
    fair point on Blevins track record

    We are at the halfway point so from here on we would have to pay half or less of any contract unless part of the deal involved the other team picking up salary...i suspect other teams like the Blue Jays (Solarte/Donaldson/Loup) and Mets (Cabrera/Blevins) are willing to pay $ to improve the prospect haul. Even so none of these sort of deals are going to cost us a top prospect. The Braves are cash constrained and much more likely to deal with teams willing to eat part of a contract.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 07-01-2018 at 11:05 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Obviously shopping cheap requires a little luck, but here's Blevins k to bb numbers the last 3 full seasons...

    2014 = 66 to 23
    2016 = 52 to 15
    2017 = 69 to 24

    I'm betting on his ratio to get much better 2nd half

    Mous has a 6.5 million contract. How much of that would be stilled owed if the braves got him?
    In my opinion Mous wouldn’t move the needle very much. There is a reason he had to take a one year deal. I’m ok sticking with Camargo over spending what it would take to get Mous and I’m not a Camargo believer.

    My move as a GM would be to pick up some cheap bullpen help and find a veteran right handed bat with some power for the bench. With Ozzie and Camargo switch hitting I think the left side of the plate is covered

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Obviously shopping cheap requires a little luck, but here's Blevins k to bb numbers the last 3 full seasons...

    2014 = 66 to 23
    2016 = 52 to 15
    2017 = 69 to 24

    I'm betting on his ratio to get much better 2nd half

    Mous has a 6.5 million contract. How much of that would be stilled owed if the braves got him?
    About half at this point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Austin Riley getting hurt could end up being a big deal. Had he continued current pace, he could've been our 3b 2nd half with Camargo being really strong bench guy
    Riley's strikeout rate in AAA suggests otherwise.
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    Quote Originally Posted by JxnMissFan View Post
    In my opinion Mous wouldn’t move the needle very much. There is a reason he had to take a one year deal. I’m ok sticking with Camargo over spending what it would take to get Mous and I’m not a Camargo believer.

    My move as a GM would be to pick up some cheap bullpen help and find a veteran right handed bat with some power for the bench. With Ozzie and Camargo switch hitting I think the left side of the plate is covered
    I would lean toward a positionally versatile switch hitter such as Asdrubal Cabrera or Solarte.
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    How good would Bautista look as a part time player right now?

    .842 ops
    133 wRC
    1.0 fWAR (145 PA)

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    Quote Originally Posted by JxnMissFan View Post
    In my opinion Mous wouldn’t move the needle very much. There is a reason he had to take a one year deal. I’m ok sticking with Camargo over spending what it would take to get Mous and I’m not a Camargo believer.

    My move as a GM would be to pick up some cheap bullpen help and find a veteran right handed bat with some power for the bench. With Ozzie and Camargo switch hitting I think the left side of the plate is covered
    Moose has never done anything for me.

    He’s better than Ryan Flaherty etc but I’d probably rather roll with Camargo’s defense.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CyYoung31 View Post
    I said at the beginning of the year that we lack positional depth at the ML level and high minors, and that it could hurt us in the second half. Thethe of course said it wasn’t a problem.
    I think we will survive the SP storm that beleaguers most teams. RP is another problem and I think we will need 1-2 more stable guys to help us in the 2nd half. We should be able to find one in our minors and hopefully trade for another. I'd also like another IF spot to replace RF. Acuna coming back pushes Culberson to a clear utility spot and he will help in that area some. Santana seems like a decent enough backup OF/bench bat.

    So yeah. I think our clear needs are 1-2 RP and someone to take RF's spot. If you could add some SP depth without giving up much then I'd be all for it. I just don't think there is enough payroll space to fit all of that in there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    How good would Bautista look as a part time player right now?

    .842 ops
    133 wRC
    1.0 fWAR (145 PA)
    Showing positive UZR at 3rd and in the OF this year. Yeah....would be the perfect candidate to replace RF....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Moose has never done anything for me.

    He’s better than Ryan Flaherty etc but I’d probably rather roll with Camargo’s defense.
    Mous vs rhp = .848 ops
    Camargo vs lhp = 1.129 ops
    Both in .600s vs opposite hand

    Mous isn't the defender that Camargo is, but -0.1 def value on fangraphs and 0.4 dWAR on BR

    ETA... I put camargo's splits from last season. Please forgive me
    Last edited by msstate7; 07-01-2018 at 12:14 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Mous vs rhp = .848 ops
    Camargo vs lhp = 1.129 ops
    Both in .600s vs opposite hand

    Mous isn't the defender that Camargo is, but -0.1 def value on fangraphs and 0.4 dWAR on BR
    Im not going to look at it so I’ll probably be wrong but his defense has been worse I think the last few years than it’s been so far this year.

    I think one of the major improvements this year has been the left side of the infield not pissing all over itself on the defensive end.

    I wouldn’t mess with that to get a meh offensive player.
    Last edited by Southcack77; 07-01-2018 at 11:58 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Im not going to look at it so I’ll probably be wrong but his defense has been worse I think the last few years than it’s been so far this year.

    I think one of the major improvements this year has been the left side of the infield not loading all over itself on the defensive end.

    I wouldn’t mess with that to get a meh offensive player.
    Mous had a bad defensive season last year, but has been a positive defender pretty much his whole career. He seems to be rebounding defensively this season. Last season seems to be an aberration

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Mous vs rhp = .848 ops
    Camargo vs lhp = 1.129 ops
    Both in .600s vs opposite hand

    Mous isn't the defender that Camargo is, but -0.1 def value on fangraphs and 0.4 dWAR on BR
    What range are those splits? BRef has Camargo at .956 for his MLB career vs lhp, and .710 vs rhp, which generally jibes with his minor league disparities. However, this season, he’s posting a superior OPS against rhp (.802 vs .763)—pretty much entirely thanks to a .130 isoOBP (vs .044 as a rhb against lefties). So basically, almost all of his massive bb-rate improvement has come as a lhb—and it’s been enough to even out his splits, even though his power’s been much better as a rhb.

    If that trend holds, Camargo may not need a platoon partner after all—but the team may be best-served hitting him at different spots in the lineup, depending on the handedness of the opposing starter.

    (Tangent: interestingly, in 2012 in DSL and 2013 at Danville, before he was switch-hitting, he actually hit rhp better than lhp as a purely rh batter.)
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