How much fun is this? Optimism thread

[UNCBlue012]

To be honest, this thread is unnecessary, but I feel like we need something unifying around these parts, so let's discuss how much fun this team is.

We have rookies/young guys playing like veterans, actual veterans finding their stroke again, talented pitchers out the butt and a bullpen that looks to improve with each excited pitcher in the system.

We're beating the good teams, semi-beating the bad ones and making walk-off hits the norm around Braves Country. For the first time since 2013, there's a legit feeling of excitement and I can't contain it!

Also, because Acuna is the s**t and has an immense amount of swag, here's this again:

Oh, and for the last time since I started it and sincerely apologize: yes, this entire team "IS" trying. lol

[Jaw]

In before thethe brings his gloom and doom to the thread.

[Tapate50]

It is a blast right now. I'm staying up watching almost every game. Very exciting to say the least. I talk last nights game with up to 3 coworkers every day to recap.

BTW, the Yankees 25 man roster resembles the MonSTARS from Space Jam. Guys are legit athletic freaks except for Greg Bird.

[nsacpi]

wasn't there a thread like this in 2014?

I think it was titled The Division is Ours.

Or was that 2011?

Anyhow, while I appreciate the positive intent of the opening poster, I have some grave concerns about a thread like this.

[sturg33]

Camargoat pacing 3.7 fWAR over 162. wRC of 119 now

[thewupk]

Camargoat pacing 3.7 fWAR over 162. wRC of 119 now

thethe was right

[Russ2dollas]

thethe was right

I still don't think so. I still think he's a utility guy. But I'm happy to be wrong.

I think it would be nice to have a platoon partner with him if we go cheap at 3B.

[thewupk]

I still don't think so. I still think he's a utility guy. But I'm happy to be wrong.

I think it would be nice to have a platoon partner with him if we go cheap at 3B.

I think a platoon would optimize the overall offense from the position but it does look like he's good enough to handle the position as a starter full-time.

[nsacpi]

I think a platoon would optimize the overall offense from the position but it does look like he's good enough to handle the position as a starter full-time.

We don't need a starting quality guy, but a lefty hitter who can occasionally spell Swanson and Camargo would be helpful. An upgraded version of Flaherty. One guy who comes to mind is Dietrich (career OPS .789 against righties and .677 against lefties). A switch hitter like Solarte (career OPS of .762 vs righties and .708 vs lefties) would work too.

By comparison Ryan Flaherty has a .650 career OPS against righties and .593 against lefties. So someone like Dietrich or Solarte would be a nice upgrade and someone we can play often against right handed pitching.

Swanson's career splits are .667 against righties and .751 against lefties.

Camargo is at .721 against righties and .956 against lefties.

I know some of the 2018 numbers are different but if you want to predict what splits will look like going forward the larger samples from career numbers are the better predictors.

When you look at the platoon data you really get a good idea of ways to cheaply round out this team. A lefty situational reliever and someone who can play on the left side of the infield against right handed pitching.

[depley]

reminds me of 1991 to honest. That same kind of vibe, where you know they are playing better than maybe they should but you enjoy being in the hunt.

[Carp]

Camargoat pacing 3.7 fWAR over 162. wRC of 119 now

The Panamanian Trout.

[thewupk]

The Panamanian Trout.

And the Venezuelan Trout. Thank God for Frank Wren

[zbhargrove]

I am all aboard the Solarte train and I can admit I was wrong about Camargo

[Enscheff]

We don't need a starting quality guy, but a lefty hitter who can occasionally spell Swanson and Camargo would be helpful. An upgraded version of Flaherty.

Perfectly stated.

There are several options, and they should be pretty cheap to acquire.

This plus a LOOGY needs to happen by the deadline.

[Enscheff]

Folks only need to look at the current Cubs and Nats as a warning about not going for it in a season where the team is in contention. The Cubs were supposed to be a 10 year dynasty, and the Nats were supposed to be WS contenders in Harper's final year. Neither are currently leading their division at the halfway mark.

The Braves are in position to win now, so AA needs to push some chips in to win now. Just because the team is young is no guarantee they will be in this position again next year, or in subsequent years.

Don't be foolish, but the roster needs a few upgrades. Those upgrades need to happen.

[mfree80]

We don't need a starting quality guy, but a lefty hitter who can occasionally spell Swanson and Camargo would be helpful. An upgraded version of Flaherty. One guy who comes to mind is Dietrich (career OPS .789 against righties and .677 against lefties). A switch hitter like Solarte (career OPS of .762 vs righties and .708 vs lefties) would work too.

By comparison Ryan Flaherty has a .650 career OPS against righties and .593 against lefties. So someone like Dietrich or Solarte would be a nice upgrade and someone we can play often against right handed pitching.

Swanson's career splits are .667 against righties and .751 against lefties.

Camargo is at .721 against righties and .956 against lefties.

I know some of the 2018 numbers are different but if you want to predict what splits will look like going forward the larger samples from career numbers are the better predictors.

When you look at the platoon data you really get a good idea of ways to cheaply round out this team. A lefty situational reliever and someone who can play on the left side of the infield against right handed pitching.

With young players who are improving, I am not sure this is true. Is there a trajectory (trend line) that might be a better predictor than just an aggregate of past data? I know it is not linear, but with young guys you have to believe that improvement is because they are growing up and getting better. It is not reasonable to assume that any improvement is certain to lead to regression. Both Swanson and Camargo are at the point of their careers where improvement is likely to be improvement, not just a lucky streak.

[Super]

Folks only need to look at the current Cubs and Nats as a warning about not going for it in a season where the team is in contention. The Cubs were supposed to be a 10 year dynasty, and the Nats were supposed to be WS contenders in Harper's final year. Neither are currently leading their division at the halfway mark.

The Braves are in position to win now, so AA needs to push some chips in to win now. Just because the team is young is no guarantee they will be in this position again next year, or in subsequent years.

Don't be foolish, but the roster needs a few upgrades. Those upgrades need to happen.

agreed. we can solidify an already-solid team without breaking the prospect bank. the roster is overall young, and the farm is still good, even with the graduations (thanks coppy). no need to try and build a "favorite" for this year. being solid with good depth and a good farm will prob give us more sustained success (and maybe even a better chance at a WS).

[nsacpi]

With young players who are improving, I am not sure this is true. Is there a trajectory (trend line) that might be a better predictor than just an aggregate of past data? I know it is not linear, but with young guys you have to believe that improvement is because they are growing up and getting better. It is not reasonable to assume that any improvement is certain to lead to regression. Both Swanson and Camargo are at the point of their careers where improvement is likely to be improvement, not just a lucky streak.

it occasionally happens that improvments by young players are split specific....Chipper against lefties is an example...but usually improvement is not split specific...i would bet Swanson's reverse splits this year do not get replicated in the second half

[mfree80]

it occasionally happens that improvments by young players are split specific....Chipper against lefties is an example...but usually improvement is not split specific...i would bet Swanson's reverse splits this year do not get replicated in the second half

You may very well be right. Something to keep watching. The overall improvement is encouraging, but the split data is interesting.

[Enscheff]

Moreso than split data, this is likely the type of data the Braves are looking at:

Camargo's 2017/2018 average FB/LD exit velocity batting RHed = 95.6 mph
Camargo's 2017/2018 average FB/LD exit velocity batting LHed = 90.8 mph

As stated by AA, they know Camargo hits the ball hard RHed. They should be looking for someone who hits the ball hard LHed (or vs RHP) to compliment him. I identified such hitters in another thread here: http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/sh...l=1#post507789