Talkingchop article about trading Kimbrel

[Enscheff]

http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/10/2...#comment_tease

He basically says it's now or never to trade Kimbrel. While I don't completely disagree that it MAY be wise to trade him this offseason, I do disagree that this is the only time to get value for him.

Personally, I think Wren should hold onto him for at least this year, and then trade him next offseason or at this year's deadline if the Braves fall out of contention. Why? Glad you asked...

1. Based on Pap's arb numbers, Kimbrel will likely make the following salaries in 2014/15/16: $7M+/$10M+/$13M+. There will be no problem fitting a $7M salary into the budget next year. No other legit closer can signed for that price anyways.

2. If Venters, EOF and Walden were all returning at full strength next year the BP might be able to haqndle the loss of Kimbrel. None of them ended the year healthy and/or effective, so losing Kimbrel would hurt even more.

3. The big budget teams won't flinch at $10M-$13M per year for the best closer in the game, so losing one more year of "cheap" control shouldn't hurt his value by much. Kimbrel's value lies in the fact that he is THE elite closer, not the fact that he is still affordable.

Now, if someone offers something silly for Kimbrel, then Wren has to listen. What constitutes silly? The Rangers offering Profar. The Yanks offering Robertson for Kimbrel plus Uggla and eating all of Uggla's money. Or someone else offering a cost controlled impact player at a position of need, or offering to eat Uggla's contract plus add a 9th inning BP arm.

[cajunrevenge]

As always depends what is offered but I would definitely be shopping him. We could sign Nathan,Balfour, or Wilson for the same money Kimbrel would make in arbitration. Kimbrel's real value comes in the playoffs, how can we make it in the playoffs if our best player only pitches 1.1 innings in a whole series. The 12-15 innings a closer pitches in the playoffs in a world series run is where the real difference between Kimbrel and the average closer show up. Since we are stuck with a manger who treats October like a game in April we might as well have an average closer instead of an elite one.

I dont think Kimbrel will be traded but if he is then I think its in a scenario where we get prospects to flip to the Rays for Price. We would still need to add on to what we get for Kimbrel but it would lessen the impact on the farm system.

[thethe]

Kimbrel was great when he was cheap but he has more value to the Braves moving forward in a potential return then what his value would be as our closer. Bottom line is we can't afford him in two years. Always better to trade a guy a year too early than a year too late.

[50PoundHead]

I know the closer role is somewhat overvalued, but I've seen teams without good closers and if you are a team that is going to have to play at the margins (which the Braves might have to) to contend, the closer takes on a larger and more valuable role. That said, if someone bowled the Braves over with an offer, they'd have to listen. But make no mistake, you build your bullpen from the 9th inning backwards and if Kimbrel isn't around, you won't be starting on solid ground.

I don't know how much Nathan has left in the tank, but he's been very good over his career. Brian Wilson might be good for the money, but he's such a freak.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Ive been on this one for awhile but what is interesting is todays Cincy Enquirer has an article up about trading Chapman for Castellanos.
That was my thought some time back tho i would want more such as Rondon thrown in.
Then Detroit Free Press lists Tigers needs as closer, LFer and 2nd. I highly doubt that they would even sniff at Uggla. But would Kimbrel, Wood, Justin Upton get their attention for Castellanos (our future 3rd), Scherszer (our ACE for 2014) Rondon (a young pen arm) and Porcello (our 5th starter if Hudson doesnt come back and a very good trade chip if he does) Money is just about a wash BTW.

[Heyward]

I said this on scout and got bashed for it.

Robertson has 1 yr left of arby, heck no.

Profar i would definately do even if we have to throw in something, i doubt that happens though.

There are guys like Benoit, Wilson, Balfour, Mujica, etc you could sign for 4-5 mil for 2 years, and use that extra money on a bat, or keeping in-house talent.

[zitothebrave]

Disagree with it.

If someone offers us something bonkers for him then you do it, but no one is going to do that.

[Runnin]

http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/10/2...#comment_tease

2. If Venters, EOF and Walden were all returning at full strength next year the BP might be able to haqndle the loss of Kimbrel. None of them ended the year healthy and/or effective, so losing Kimbrel would hurt even more.

Venters, EOF, Walden and likely Kimbrel as well, will not return at full strength but that's not a big worry. I would definitely listen to offers but I wouldn't trade him for anything less than an elite ace.

[thethe]

Venters, EOF, Walden and likely Kimbrel as well, will not return at full strength but that's not a big worry. I would definitely listen to offers but I wouldn't trade him for anything less than an elite ace.

Thats unrealistic IMO. Braves dont even need an elite ace. It doesn't guarantee anything. Braves need to ensure that there will be talent through the pipeline in two years.

[clvclv]

Thats unrealistic IMO. Braves dont even need an elite ace. It doesn't guarantee anything. Braves need to ensure that there will be talent through the pipeline in two years.

If we've learned anything, it should be that NOTHING'S "unrealistic". Unlikely maybe, but never "unrealistic". I seem to recall quite a few people telling me that Justin Upton would never be a Brave - that that was "unrealistic". I seem to recall quite a few people stating that it was completely "unrealistic" to think that Evan Gattis would be successful at this level.

Never say never.

I actually can see a potential deal where including Kimbrel nets us an "Ace".

[Hudson2]

I love Kimbrel as much as the next but I'd rather keep Freeman and Heyward then have the best closer n baseball and pay him what it'll take. With as hard as he throws he will probably be a TJ candidate in the next few years. I'd really hate to trade him, but if we could reload the system while keeping some of our other players then I'm all for it.

[cajunrevenge]

The time to trade kimbrel is at the trade deadline. Right now anyone team can throw the same or less money to get a decent closer that they don't have to give up any prospects.

Come July if a big market team has issues with their closer then the braves leverage skyrockets. Wren just needs a good back up option. Even if its prospects in return we can flip them for another big player. Maybe even someone like David Price.

[zitothebrave]

Flipping Kimbrel while we're winning is a bad idea.

[Enscheff]

It will be odd to see Kimbrel treated like a salary dump or non-tender candidate next offseason.

[nsacpi]

The case of Jim Johnson illustrates how there has been a divergence between the arbitration system and the latest thinking on the part of front offices when it comes to the valuation of closers. At a salary of $10M, there wasn't much of a market for him. Basically his "surplus value" (expected production minus salary) was viewed as close to zero. And all the Orioles got in return for him was Jemile Weeks, who is basically a replacement level second baseman.

It is possible that we'll reach the same point with Kimbrel. Not this year. Not next year. But for his third year of arbitration. Especially if he is successful in arbitration.

[Enscheff]

The case of Jim Johnson illustrates how there has been a divergence between the arbitration system and the latest thinking on the part of front offices when it comes to the valuation of closers. At a salary of $10M, there wasn't much of a market for him. Basically his "surplus value" (expected production minus salary) was viewed as close to zero. And all the Orioles got in return for him was Jemile Weeks, who is basically a replacement level second baseman.

It is possible that we'll reach the same point with Kimbrel. Not this year. Not next year. But for his third year of arbitration. Especially if he is successful in arbitration.

This is an interesting thought experiment though...

Let's pretend that Jim Johnson is "worth" $10M, and that just so happens to be his salary as a 2 WAR closer. Further, let's pretend Kimbrel is a 3 WAR closer and "worth" $15M, and that is also his salary 2 years from now.

You are building a WS contending team with a $180M+ payroll. Don't you try to cram as much WAR into each of your roster spots as possible, thus making Kimbrel more valuable despite the equal $/WAR ratios? Isn't the fact that spuerstars concentrate so much WAR into a single roster spot the very reason superstars are paid so well?

[jpx7]

Probably for lack of high leverage situations.