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Thread: Baseball America New Top 100

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    *chances are especially good if they're already only throwing 89-90
    Down and away. Not a tremendous amount of difference in velocity to results in those areas.

    Being able to hit those spots consistently and surviving on that diet is a serious skill though. Not a big margin of error.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Well hell I only hit 72 on the radar gun, but I could knock a dime off an ant's ass with my control. You think I might have a shot?!?!
    Depends. Can you throw an eephus?
    AKA International Bonus Pool Slot

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    *chances are especially good if they're already only throwing 89-90
    Being LH helps quite a bit. There's been more than a few soft tossing lefties have long, successful careers. If he can locate well and not walk batters, he'll be a solid pitcher.
    Last edited by Carp; 07-19-2018 at 10:48 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Being LH helps quite a bit. There's been more than a few soft tossing lefties have long, successful careers. If he can locate well and not walk batters, he'll be a solid pitcher.
    sure. it just limits his ceiling dramatically.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by OcalaBrave View Post
    If you were 20 posting a sub 3 ERA in AAA you'd certainly deserve one, despite what the radar gun says.
    This is the exact type of straw man argument that does nothing but make someone look foolish.

    Nobody is saying Allard doesn't deserve a shot. Literally not a single person. Not one. Zero.

    Folks are saying it is reasonable to project a guy throwing 89-91 at a young age to end up being a back of the rotation SP. Many back end SPs post incredible numbers in AAA because their stuff is good enough to beat those hitters when paired with good command, and then get shelled at the MLB level.

    We will see what Allard's stuff really is when we get MLB statcast data on him. Until then, all we can do is go by the opinions of the guys writing in the public sphere. None of them appear to be very high on Allard.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Maybe, maybe not... you have no way of knowing this as fact. We sure destroyed greinke and his 90-91 last Saturday, right? No, I'm not saying allard will be greinke, but he doesn't walk guys and seems to stay off bats. Will he succeed? Probably not, but that's pretty much every prospect. We drafted him 1st round, so not like he's total crap stuff
    LOL, seriously, bringing up Greinke and his 80 grade control?

    It never changes around here haha.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    LOL, seriously, bringing up Greinke and his 80 grade control?

    It never changes around here haha.
    Maddux and Greinke could do it. Allard should be able to

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    LOL, seriously, bringing up Greinke and his 80 grade control?

    It never changes around here haha.
    Greinke's last year full year in milb was 2006...
    105.2 ip 27 bb 2.3 bb9

    Allard this season...
    104.1 ip 31 bb 2.7 bb9

    Allard has good control too.

    Again though, douch... I mean escheff, I even said in the post you quoted, I'm not saying allard is greinke.

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    Allard’s 2.7 BB to 8.2 K does intrigue me.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Allard’s 2.7 BB to 8.2 K does intrigue me.
    where did you get 8.2 k/9? he's at 6.99 this year.
    control is a lot different in the minors than it is in the majors. ask mike soroka.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    where did you get 8.2 k/9? he's at 6.99 this year.
    control is a lot different in the minors than it is in the majors. ask mike soroka.
    Career

    Sometimes the control a rookie starter shows gets better. Hell, newcomb has the best bb9 he's had since rookie ball this season

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Career
    dropping every year.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    dropping every year.
    Control improving

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Control improving
    not as much as the Ks are dropping
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    not as much as the Ks are dropping
    Prefer to use career. If you want to parcel then he has 8 per 9 since June 1st.

    Still can’t buy a beer legally and still dominating the league.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    sure. it just limits his ceiling dramatically.
    But his floor seems pretty high too, which should still hold a good bit of value. Hopefully he can at least be another Wandy Rodriguez/JA Happ type with the small possibility of bucking the odds and becoming another Zito.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This is the exact type of straw man argument that does nothing but make someone look foolish.

    Nobody is saying Allard doesn't deserve a shot. Literally not a single person. Not one. Zero.

    Folks are saying it is reasonable to project a guy throwing 89-91 at a young age to end up being a back of the rotation SP. Many back end SPs post incredible numbers in AAA because their stuff is good enough to beat those hitters when paired with good command, and then get shelled at the MLB level.

    We will see what Allard's stuff really is when we get MLB statcast data on him. Until then, all we can do is go by the opinions of the guys writing in the public sphere. None of them appear to be very high on Allard.
    People also need to re-set the idea of a back end starter. That is valuable.

    If Allard is a really good 5 while under team control that will be very useful. I don't see why he cannot be a 4/5. I know that isn't what you want from a top pick but it will be way more valuable than most picks.

    We all want to dream of a rotation of studs. That is very rare in baseball history.

    The other option is see if he can do whatever Charlie Morton has done. Not everyone is on a linear projection. He's still young. Maybe he has some velocity to unlock.

    Jeremy Moyer made a lot of money as a soft tossing lefty. I have no idea why Sanchez is so good for us. I like Allard. I'd also deal him for an impact bat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    But his floor seems pretty high too, which should still hold a good bit of value. Hopefully he can at least be another Wandy Rodriguez/JA Happ type with the small possibility of bucking the odds and becoming another Zito.
    Umm....

    You might want to go take a look at Happ's AA/AAA K rates before declaring that as Allard's "at least" outcome.

    I would be very interested to see some work done on how successful pitchers are at the MLB level after posting K rates around 7 in AA/AAA. I'm going to guess they didn't fair very well at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Umm....

    You might want to go take a look at Happ's AA/AAA K rates before declaring that as Allard's "at least" outcome.

    I would be very interested to see some work done on how successful pitchers are at the MLB level after posting K rates around 7 in AA/AAA. I'm going to guess they didn't fair very well at all.
    It was just a lazy comparison I made based on the fact they are both soft tossing lefties. I didn't put too much research into it.

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    Of the guys that recently posted a below 7 K/9 at AAA, the only guy worth putting in a starting rotation is Daniel Mengden and even he's been absolutely drilled recently, which should tell a lot.

    Guys that have a lower K rate in the majors but were guys that have learned the ropes are fine (but even they are suspect to days where everything just falls), but a guy in the minors that hasn't is likely not going to perform well in the majors.

    I'd sell high on Allard after 2018.
    Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.

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