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Thread: GDT - August 7, 2018 - Game 2 of 2 - 7:05 @ Nationals

  1. #261
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I'm referring to the 1 game they won 25-4. Really padded the run differential there.
    That only matters for first order winning percentage. Second and third order winning percentages take into account lower level stats.

    As of August 6...

    Braves: 60 61.3 61.2 60.8 - this suggests the Braves had "really" played like a ~61 win team.
    Nats: 57 62.6 63.0 61.9 - this suggests the Nats had "really" played like a 62-63 win team.
    Phils: 63 59.5 60.4 60.0 - this suggests the Phils had "really" played like a ~60 win team.

    I think those W1/W2/W3 values pretty accurately reflect how the teams have played thus far.

    Folks claiming the Phils have gotten lucky are mostly correct. Some teams ride luck like this all year, but usually it runs out.

    The Nats are pretty clearly the best team in the NL East, and the Braves have to hope they can fend them off with the benefit of their early lead.

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  3. #262
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    That only matters for first order winning percentage. Second and third order winning percentages take into account lower level stats.

    As of August 6...

    Braves: 60 61.3 61.2 60.8 - this suggests the Braves had "really" played like a ~61 win team.
    Nats: 57 62.6 63.0 61.9 - this suggests the Nats had "really" played like a 62-63 win team.
    Phils: 63 59.5 60.4 60.0 - this suggests the Phils had "really" played like a ~60 win team.

    I think those W1/W2/W3 values pretty accurately reflect how the teams have played thus far.

    Folks claiming the Phils have gotten lucky are mostly correct. Some teams ride luck like this all year, but usually it runs out.

    The Nats are pretty clearly the best team in the NL East, and the Braves have to hope they can fend them off with the benefit of their early lead.
    I'd agree they have the most talent. I just they have too big of a hole with 7.5 weeks left.

  4. #263
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I'd agree they have the most talent. I just they have too big of a hole with 7.5 weeks left.
    That's certainly the hope we Braves fans have to hold onto.

    Beating them definitely helps.

  5. #264
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    I wanna know how the Phillies pitchers have all stayed pretty much totally healthy this year. Velasquez and Eflin missed like 2 starts each, and that's it. that's wild.
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