GDT - August 7, 2018 - Game 2 of 2 - 7:05 @ Nationals

[Enscheff]

I'm referring to the 1 game they won 25-4. Really padded the run differential there.

That only matters for first order winning percentage. Second and third order winning percentages take into account lower level stats.

As of August 6...

Braves: 60 61.3 61.2 60.8 - this suggests the Braves had "really" played like a ~61 win team.
Nats: 57 62.6 63.0 61.9 - this suggests the Nats had "really" played like a 62-63 win team.
Phils: 63 59.5 60.4 60.0 - this suggests the Phils had "really" played like a ~60 win team.

I think those W1/W2/W3 values pretty accurately reflect how the teams have played thus far.

Folks claiming the Phils have gotten lucky are mostly correct. Some teams ride luck like this all year, but usually it runs out.

The Nats are pretty clearly the best team in the NL East, and the Braves have to hope they can fend them off with the benefit of their early lead.