Nats have wasted another week to make their move and one of their best chances to make up ground against Braves.
I still fear them getting their rotation and lineup back into place and going on a streak that will ruin someone's season.
I still think it is entirely possible they finish ahead of either the Braves or Phillies and still will not be shocked if they win the division. But I feel like that's a good bit less likely than a week ago and said I would bet on the former.
The Braves have 47 games remaining, and the Nats have 44 games remaining.
If the Braves play sub-500 ball and go 23-24 from here on out, they will finish with 87 wins.
Just to tie the Braves in that scenario, the Nats have to go 27-17, which is a .613 winning percentage and 99+ win pace.
Sorry, but I don't find it very likely that the Braves play losing baseball over the next 47 games, and I don't see the Nats playing at a 100 win pace, much less both occurring simultaneously.
When we hit Sept 20th I fully expect both the Phils and Braves to be mathematically within striking distance of each other, and the NL East crown will come down to one of them handling business.
Super (08-13-2018)
The Braves are in a great spot. They are exactly where their run differential says they should be, which is about a 90-91 win team. That is a playoff team, and this year, that is probably the NL East champion.
The Phillies still seem to be playing above their heads a bit, so there is a pretty good chance the Braves stay where they are and the Phillies slide a little. Even if the Nats make a run, it'll have to be a really good one to catch Atlanta.
So, basically, everything Enscheff just said. You're welcome.
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Super (08-13-2018)