8/13/18 DH GAME THREAD vs MARLINS

[Enscheff]

Agreed. No excuse not to use Allard in game one with an 8-1 lead and save Biddle and Sobatka for game two, sets up a good shot at sweeping even if Folty goes five. Now Allard may be used in game two and that gives the Marlins a better shot.

That said, I really like Sobatka. He has closer stuff and I wanted him saved for game two at least. I don't want him going two innings and 40 pitches though, he looked much better in the first one.

Snit could have had Allard go 3 low leverage innings, or Biddle/Sobotka go 3 low leverage innings.

He chose Biddle/Sobotka, which means those guys can't pitch in higher leverage innings in game 2....but Allard can.

Who do you want throwing 3 higher leverage innings? Biddle/Sobotka, or Allard?

These 3 innings were guaranteed to be low leverage...Allard should have pitched them. If there are 3 low leverage innings in game 2, Sobotka or Biddle could be used in them just as easily as Allard could have.

[Enscheff]

FIFY

As usual, folks are allowing recency bias to completely cloud their judgement on a player haha.

But yes, Acuna is good and is almost certainly going to be great. That much was true even when he was struggling and folks were down on him.

Now if Snit can just stop batting him lead off while a .380 OBP hitter with little power bats behind him...

[Braves1976]

Snit could have had Allard go 3 low leverage innings, or Biddle/Sobotka go 3 low leverage innings.

He chose Biddle/Sobotka, which means those guys can't pitch in higher leverage innings in game 2....but Allard can.

Who do you want throwing 3 higher leverage innings? Biddle/Sobotka, or Allard?

These 3 innings were guaranteed to be low leverage...Allard should have pitched them. If there are 3 low leverage innings in game 2, Sobotka or Biddle could be used in them just as easily as Allard could have.

exactly, we agree totally here. This is the sort of thing Snit is the worst at, but hopefully our offense is strong tonight and Folty too. Not just to sweep today but to have the pen as fresh as possible for Sanchez's start.

[jpx7]

Snit could have had Allard go 3 low leverage innings, or Biddle/Sobotka go 3 low leverage innings.

He chose Biddle/Sobotka, which means those guys can't pitch in higher leverage innings in game 2....but Allard can.

Who do you want throwing 3 higher leverage innings? Biddle/Sobotka, or Allard?

These 3 innings were guaranteed to be low leverage...Allard should have pitched them. If there are 3 low leverage innings in game 2, Sobotka or Biddle could be used in them just as easily as Allard could have.

I say thank you to you for this useful post.

[striker42]

As usual, folks are allowing recency bias to completely cloud their judgement on a player haha.

But yes, Acuna is good and is almost certainly going to be great. That much was true even when he was struggling and folks were down on him.

Now if Snit can just stop batting him lead off while a .380 OBP hitter with little power bats behind him...

The FIFY was about 60% humor. Acuna is a fantastic player but is still pretty raw and will experience growing pains.

[Russ2dollas]

Watched this game after work. Looked to me like there was a ton of variety in touki delivery and arm slot. Calming that down could really shoot up his command and control

[CrimsonCowboy]

Better late than never

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

This day couldn't have gone any better.

[The Chosen One]

Watched this game after work. Looked to me like there was a ton of variety in touki delivery and arm slot. Calming that down could really shoot up his command and control

I think he looks up to Cueto.

[Enscheff]

Watched this game after work. Looked to me like there was a ton of variety in touki delivery and arm slot. Calming that down could really shoot up his command and control

Part of Touki's projection is his supposed plus athleticism that allows him to even attempt to do stuff like he does on the mound.

I expect him to settle down and dial things in once he realizes he doesn't need 5 different arm slots that results in 5 slightly differently shaped breaking balls.

[Enscheff]

I expect to see an amped up Touki throwing 97+ early, probably a bit wild...or maybe completely lights out filth.

I expect to see Touki settle in at ~94 with 9"+ VMov and ~5" arm side HMov on the FA.

I expect to see the CU have 7"+ of sink and ~3" of glove side movement, basically Fried's from the other side.

I expect to see Touki flash a CH vs LHHs that is good enough that we can dream on it, but only thrown a handful of times.

I expect to see wildness, but not the "miss the zone by 3 feet" kind we tend to see from Newk...typical 22 year old wildness.

Touki threw 4 pitches 16+ times last night, so we can get a decent look at his arsenal. For some reason FG doesn't have the exact movement data available for his outing from yesterday that I usually use, but the data they do have posted should be in the ballpark. Since it isn't exact apples-to-apples comparisons, I won't give grades to the decimal point like usual.

FA: 93.8 mph (Grade 50+), 5.6" HMov (Grade 50+), 4.5" VMov (Grade 20)

This is a very odd pitch...a four seamer with off the charts rise so bad that it actually acts as a sinker. That 4.5" of "rise" actually grades out as a Grade 55 sink on a sinker. His spin rate of 2169 isn't great, but it doesn't explain this movement. Either the data is wrong, or something about his arm angle prevents his FA from getting anything even resembling rise. I don't even know how to grade this pitch based on statcast data.

SI: 93.2 mph (Grade 55), 9.0" HMov (Grade 55), 1.5" VMov (Grade 70+)

This pitch is nasty, pure and simple. Easily the best sinker on the roster. Above average velocity with plus-plus sink. This is a Grade 65+ pitch.

CU: 76.6 mph (Grade 40+), 8.6" HMov (Grade 75), -8.3" VMov (Grade 70)

We all saw it, and it was better than I hoped. The scary part is that these values represent the average of attempts at throwing a few diffrent curves. When he finds a consistent arm slot he could dial it in even more. As is, the data says it's a slowish pitch with plus-plus movement in both directions. I wanted to see Fried's 60/65 CU from the opposite side. Well, this thing is Fried's CU with an additional 4" run and 1" sink. This pitch is a Grade 70+.

FS: 8.1 mph delta (Grade 50+), 3.0" HMov (Grade 20), -0.7" VMov (Grade 70+)

So...this is another pitch with plus-plus sink. Compare to Gausman's Grade 65 FS (FS: 10.7 mph delta (Grade 64.4), 8.3" HMov (Grade 54.3), 1.0" VMov (Grade 65.8), this is a bit firmer with less run and more sink. I would probably hang a 60 on this pitch right now.

Command: We all saw him around the zone for the most part. We all saw him hang quite a few breaking balls and fail to locate arm side. FG has him at 40/45 command, and I agree that it is currently below average. I think he is young enough that he has a real chance to improve that command higher than the 45 future they give him. I would say it is 45 now, and he has the athleticism and youth to get it to 50+.

What is a guy with an unexplainable FA, a 65 SI, a 70 CU, a 60 FS, and below average control? It's a guy who's control determines how productive he is. If these numbers are accurate, Touki has serious weapons and he just needs to fine tune his control.

I can't believe the Braves got him for $5M...

[atl717]

Regarding a curve or even slider, is it sometimes a negative to have too much movement? Meaning it breaks early that it becomes easier for the hitter to pick up or read? I don't know, just asking. I know when it comes to sliders, a tight slider is usually better than one that has a lot of sweeping movement but I guess it depends on how it complements the fastball.

[BeanieAntics]

Touki threw 4 pitches 16+ times last night, so we can get a decent look at his arsenal. For some reason FG doesn't have the exact movement data available for his outing from yesterday that I usually use, but the data they do have posted should be in the ballpark. Since it isn't exact apples-to-apples comparisons, I won't give grades to the decimal point like usual.

FA: 93.8 mph (Grade 50+), 5.6" HMov (Grade 50+), 4.5" VMov (Grade 20)

This is a very odd pitch...a four seamer with off the charts rise so bad that it actually acts as a sinker. That 4.5" of "rise" actually grades out as a Grade 55 sink on a sinker. His spin rate of 2169 isn't great, but it doesn't explain this movement. Either the data is wrong, or something about his arm angle prevents his FA from getting anything even resembling rise. I don't even know how to grade this pitch based on statcast data.

SI: 93.2 mph (Grade 55), 9.0" HMov (Grade 55), 1.5" VMov (Grade 70+)

This pitch is nasty, pure and simple. Easily the best sinker on the roster. Above average velocity with plus-plus sink. This is a Grade 65+ pitch.

CU: 76.6 mph (Grade 40+), 8.6" HMov (Grade 75), -8.3" VMov (Grade 70)

We all saw it, and it was better than I hoped. The scary part is that these values represent the average of attempts at throwing a few diffrent curves. When he finds a consistent arm slot he could dial it in even more. As is, the data says it's a slowish pitch with plus-plus movement in both directions. I wanted to see Fried's 60/65 CU from the opposite side. Well, this thing is Fried's CU with an additional 4" run and 1" sink. This pitch is a Grade 70+.

FS: 8.1 mph delta (Grade 50+), 3.0" HMov (Grade 20), -0.7" VMov (Grade 70+)

So...this is another pitch with plus-plus sink. Compare to Gausman's Grade 65 FS (FS: 10.7 mph delta (Grade 64.4), 8.3" HMov (Grade 54.3), 1.0" VMov (Grade 65.8), this is a bit firmer with less run and more sink. I would probably hang a 60 on this pitch right now.

Command: We all saw him around the zone for the most part. We all saw him hang quite a few breaking balls and fail to locate arm side. FG has him at 40/45 command, and I agree that it is currently below average. I think he is young enough that he has a real chance to improve that command higher than the 45 future they give him. I would say it is 45 now, and he has the athleticism and youth to get it to 50+.

What is a guy with an unexplainable FA, a 65 SI, a 70 CU, a 60 FS, and below average control? It's a guy who's control determines how productive he is. If these numbers are accurate, Touki has serious weapons and he just needs to fine tune his control.

I can't believe the Braves got him for $5M...

This analysis makes me wet. I think its one of the best you've ever given one of our pitchers. Touki got me hyped.

[Enscheff]

This analysis makes me wet. I think its one of the best you've ever given one of our pitchers. Touki got me hyped.

Watching the game I chalked the fact they didn’t punish all his poorly located breaking pitches up to luck or unfamiliarity with those pitches. It looks like they were simply nasty enough that he could get away with poor location.

He will need to tighten up the command to be better than a 3 though. I’m guessing he can.

[chipchildress]

Watching the game I chalked the fact they didn’t punish all his poorly located breaking pitches up to luck or unfamiliarity with those pitches. It looks like they were simply nasty enough that he could get away with poor location.

He will need to tighten up the command to be better than a 3 though. I’m guessing he can.

can you find some data to back this rational thought up? thanks.