So, how much of the difference between baseball and football can be attributed to the difference in N in the two seasons? Football necessarily has a small N, so we would predict that luck (chance) has a disproportionate impact; it's possible to come up with teams with win percentages of 81% or 19%. In baseball, the much higher N means that most teams are between a 40% and 60% win rate. Maybe there just less of an overall effect of luck in baseball, and so the teams look like they are closer in quality.
In football the QB has the most impact on the outcome of games of any major sport...except for the pitcher in baseball. You either have Rodgers and win, or you have a scrub and lose. Rodgers gets to impact every single game in a hugely out sized way. If MLB played 1 game per week, the Nats would face off against every other team with Scherzer...and they would likely dominate.
The number of games certainly has something to do with it because 162 games forces teams to use many different pitchers. It would be like an NFL team having to play nearly everyday and being forced go with a 5 man QB rotation. Teams would be a lot more even if Rodgers only got to play in 20% of the games, with the rest being handled by guys who aren't even in the league right now.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
this isn't true really. they were a pretty young but talented team. peca, zhitnik, satan, i think woolley was on the squad..hasek was definitely their main reason for success tho. but i think that's more of an anomaly than anything else. a lot of times it's not great goalies in the playoffs and such. of course, last season in the NFL was a strange one, with the likes of case keenum, nick foles, and blake bortles all making it to the conference finals. but i think last year was a legitimate down year in the NFL.
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
I can't even discuss hockey due to sheer ignorance, so I concede you may very well be right.
The overall point still stands though: baseball does not allow a single elite player to dominate enough games to create the same level of super teams we see in football (and to some extent basketball).
Baseball prospectus now has our odds of making the playoffs at 91.3% with a 10.6% chance of winning the World Series. Phillies are down to a 21.4% chance of making the playoffs.
Ender will guide us to the World Series.
Forever Fredi
Last edited by nsacpi; 08-29-2018 at 02:40 PM.
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The Chosen One (08-29-2018)
The Chosen One (08-29-2018)