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Thread: Starting Pitching in the Majors and Minors

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    Starting Pitching in the Majors and Minors

    The mood around here is very positive, almost giddy, about the starting pitching we have accumulated. I think when evaluating the developments this year, the picture is more mixed than is generally realized. Still let me start with the positives:

    1) Wilson. Made his major league debut at 20. He started the season in High A. I would give him some additional seasoning in AAA next year, but for me he is now a favorite for a long-term spot in the major league rotation.

    2) Touki. Had some bad luck last year in terms of results not matching the peripherals. I'm not surprised to see the results converge to the peripherals this year. I think now he is a bit overrated around here. But definitely a positive story for 2018.

    3) Folty. I'm including guys at the major league level in this assessment and he is making a case for turning into that homegrown TOR guy.

    4) Gausman. I like what I've seen so far. Obviously the results have exceeded what the peripherals suggest. Still, we have to put the acquisition of this guy into the plus column.

    5) Suarez. Obviously a nice surprise. Does not matter in terms of implications beyond this year.

    6) Muller. Has really stepped it up and is now a legitimate prospect.

    Now the minuses. Not as many as positive developments, but they involve two of our brightest prospects.

    1) Soroka. I've had a nagging concern as he has zipped through the system that he was being pushed too hard too fast. The promotions have been aggressive and the workload heavy for a teen-age pitcher. Hope that's not why the shoulder problems cropped up. But this is a big minus for me given that I rated him very highly.

    2) Gohara. I rated him and Soroka above all others in our system. So another big minus to me whatever the reason. Hopefully he bounces back.

    3) Allard. Even though he did ok in AAA, I think we have all had to lower our expectations based on what we have seen in the majors.

    4) Wentz. An almost lost year due to injuries. And I wasn't that impressed even before this year.

    Now for the guys who essentially held serve:

    1) Anderson. Continues to advance steadily. He doesn't flash the potential that guys like Soroka and Gohara did. But that still leaves room for plenty of value.

    2) Wright. Similar to Anderson but one level closer to the majors.

    3) Fried. Quite a bit of potential. But can't seem to have a long stretch of success. Hopefully, a solution is found to the problem with blisters.

    4) Newcomb. I think we know what he is. Some of us are too easily seduced by the occasional outstanding performance.

    5) Teheran. Innings eater is what he is now.

    For me the negative developments with respect to Soroka and Gohara carry a lot of weight because those two are the guys who I think had the most upside. Wilson, Touki and Folty have been very nice positive developments. I would say Folty is the biggest positive development, partly because it is happening at the major league level. I think he hasn't reached his peak yet.

    My Top 5 overall: Folty, Soroka, Gohara, Gausman, Wilson. Ranked by expected peak for a single major league season.

    In terms of those expected peak seasons in terms of fWAR, I think Folty has a 5 WAR season in him (he's at 3.2 so far this year). I'd peg Soroka and Gohara at 4.5. Gausman at 4 and Wilson at 3.5. ymmv
    Last edited by nsacpi; 08-31-2018 at 09:06 AM.
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    Thanks for this thread, I’m about to just turn it into 2019 rotation speculation…

    I’m sure most of y’all have heard it, but I’ll say it here. You need at least 8-10 starters that can go planned to me as it’s rare that you’re going to have everyone stay healthy. Based off 2014, planning on having the rotation be Foltynewicz, Gausman, possibly Newcomb if no trade, and kids running around completely, isn’t a smart idea to me at all either. I’d really rather not they be the veterans of the rotation. Which is why I have backpedaled some on Teheran. I might keep him. As I see it, we know enough to trade 1 starter. Not 2, even though it’s going to disappoint some to not see 3 kids running around in the rotation all season long.
    (This is not including Sanchez, I’m talking about the Folty/Gausman/Newcomb/Teheran group)
    I think you need at least 3 established starters and at least 5 starters that can make starts through a season. The way I see it, and this is based off secondhand information more than favoritism, this is what I think we might see:

    First month or two of the season:

    1. Foltynewicz
    2. Gausman
    3. Teheran or Newcomb (I see one just not being with the team after this season)
    4. Toussaint
    5. Whoever is still here of Fried or Gohara temporarily, and then they move to the pen later.

    Later:

    1. Foltynewicz
    2. Gausman
    3. Teheran or Newcomb
    4. Toussaint
    5. Wright (I like him, but this is NOT, “NOT” about favoritism. It’s based off secondhand information that unless he has a setback, he’s likely coming to stay late spring/early summer, now IF he does have that setback, we could see Soroka or Wilson over him)

    With Mike Soroka, until we figure out what the team’s plans with him are if all is well for him, I don’t think we should be counting on him for more than 15-20 major league starts next season. They’ll likely put him in AAA (even though he’s ready for the majors) to limit his innings at the get go.

    With Bryse Wilson, if you think he can hone his off speed more, he should not be doing that in MLB and should get another half season at AAA to do it. I understand people here really, really like him, but there would be value in doing that. It’d make his ceiling a bit higher.
    Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.

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    I don't see how Anderson doesn't have at least Soroka's potential, and also how he hasn't boosted his status. He moved up a level, kept the Ks the same (pretty high) and lowered his BBs a full walk per 9. He's now in AA at the age of 20 putting up good numbers.

    I also don't really see how Touki is overrated..his stuff is phenomenal and he's shown very encouraging signs in the control department. Sky is the limit with him.

    i'll be patient with Gohara. I think that's the only option at this point.
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    Oh it’s been a few weeks since a list of the pitching/pitching prospects has popped up on here. Good job making the quota for the month!

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    I'd just make this the main thread to talk 2019 starting pitching as well, since some bring that up so much.
    Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.

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    I think it's nice having options for next year and beyond. However, I think some of the pitching, likely from both ML level and ml level, will be used to acquire needed talent in the offseason and I think there's a chance that AA plays in the FA SP pool if the right option is there.

    I hope they don't fall into the trap of holding firm under the expectation that some won't pan out. While that is likely true, the original strategy was always to build through internal pitching and trade from the surplus.

    I could see them trying to add a Corbin (probably won't break the bank because of TJ history), Happ, Harvey, Morton (assuming he still plays), Pomeranz (reclaim), Richards (long term reclaim), Smyly (reclaim), Eovaldi

    I would try to trade Newcomb I think if I could find a team who valued him high enough and Teheran for sure.

    Maybe Newk and Allard to the Cards for Dexter Fowler (salary dump for the Cards and reclaim RF for the Braves), Carson Kelly (once top catching prospect who's star has dimmed a bit and is behind Yadier) and Nolan Gorman (Cards 1st rounder in 2018 that should have gone to the Braves).

    Braves sign a value vet for the #4 spot in the rotation (let's say Happ) for a couple of years: Folty, Gausman, Teheran, Happ and numbers 5,6,7,8 in the rotation are fought for by Fried, Soroka, Wright, Wilson, Toukie, etc. Teheran is gone after 2019 and Gausman, Folty and Happ (in this case) would be gone soon after (or re-signed if desired).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skeeter31 View Post
    Oh it’s been a few weeks since a list of the pitching/pitching prospects has popped up on here. Good job making the quota for the month!
    u mad
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    Saw this tweet on Ian Anderson yesterday. He's my top pitching prospect in the system: https://twitter.com/ckurcon/status/1035266694212722688

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    Saw this tweet on Ian Anderson yesterday. He's my top pitching prospect in the system:
    embedded it
    Go get him!

    Founding member of the Whiny Little Bitches and Pricks Club

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    embedded it
    Thanks, i always forget to do that.

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    I'm guessing the 2019 opening day rotation will be Folty, Gaus, Newk, Teheran, and whoever wins the 5th job between Touki, Soroka, Fried, Gohara, Wright, Wilson and Allard. The good news is there's no reason to sign that $10M veteran presence for the 2019 rotation.

    No matter who wins the 5th spot (I'm guessing Touki because they are going to handle Soroka with kiddie gloves in 2019), he won't join the team until April 7th when they will need a 5th SP.

    The other guys will be in AAA or the BP waiting to be one of the 12-15 SPs used by the Braves throughout the season. Anderson will push into that group sometime in 2019.

    The guys likely to stick in the rotation long term are Touki, Soroka, Wright and Anderson, though we know 1-2 will be lost to injury (Soroka may be lost already). The survivors among that 4 will likely push their way into the rotation as Teheran and Newk work their way out over the next 1-2 seasons.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 08-31-2018 at 12:03 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    embedded it
    Who are those other 4 dots around him.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    Saw this tweet on Ian Anderson yesterday. He's my top pitching prospect in the system: https://twitter.com/ckurcon/status/1035266694212722688
    Where do these guys find this data? Anyone know?

    EDIT: never mind, it seems he went year by year through FG's MiLB stats page.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 08-31-2018 at 12:48 PM.

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    We had one young guy get his baptism under fire today.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozzie's Chainz View Post
    We had one young guy get his baptism under fire today.
    I thought he acquitted himself well. I’d have liked to see him left in to learn to deal with adversity but hard to do in a pennant race. That said I’m excited about the rotation in the future.

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    Yeah. I didn’t get to watch his start but know the 2 walks didn’t cost him runs so basically 3 runs on 4 hits without giving up a homer is more bad luck than bad pitching.
    Coppy

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    I'm not sure what overrating Touki consists of, but I would say whatever it is might be better or equally applied to Wilson. Wilson also has the same somewhat silly progression through the minors as Soroka did, so maybe he was pushed too quickly and is in danger of injury as well.

    I've never been quite as high on Soroka or Gohara as the rest of folks seemed to be. Soroka because he has some kind of pitching genius mystique wrapped around him that basically has originated from fan boys. Gohara because his body is atrocious at a youngish age and that's a relatively rare thing to work out well. but they both probably deserve to have another crack at the rotation if they are healthy. Soroka clearly does, I suppose, since he was pretty decent.

    Anderson did considerably more than hold serve in my book, but that's fine if you want to put it that way. Anderson to me is perhaps the best bet of the guys in the system to be dominant.

    Wright perhaps took a step forward, but I have no idea why they suddenly decided to push him forward or why he's active on MLB roster now. They don't seem inclined to use him. I've never had a personal feeling he was destined to be great, but the stuff is there to be very good.

    I personally believe Newcomb has made some progress this season, but seems to be regressing as it goes on. I could very easily see him make more progress next year. It sometimes takes awhile (you might look at Folty's 2017 for an example), so I'm looking with interest to see what he does next year. I see little reason he would cycle out of the rotation any time soon unless he is part of a trade package. He's very cheap for a long while longer and it's completely evident that he has no hit stuff and is one of the few left handed options in the Braves system.

    I still think Weigel is a starter and should be given the opportunity again.

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    What? Anderson has easily taken a step forward and has shown huge potential this year. Not sure if you realize what an amazing year he's had..
    Last edited by zbhargrove; 09-04-2018 at 09:25 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I'm guessing the 2019 opening day rotation will be Folty, Gaus, Newk, Teheran, and whoever wins the 5th job between Touki, Soroka, Fried, Gohara, Wright, Wilson and Allard. The good news is there's no reason to sign that $10M veteran presence for the 2019 rotation.

    No matter who wins the 5th spot (I'm guessing Touki because they are going to handle Soroka with kiddie gloves in 2019), he won't join the team until April 7th when they will need a 5th SP.

    The other guys will be in AAA or the BP waiting to be one of the 12-15 SPs used by the Braves throughout the season. Anderson will push into that group sometime in 2019.

    The guys likely to stick in the rotation long term are Touki, Soroka, Wright and Anderson, though we know 1-2 will be lost to injury (Soroka may be lost already). The survivors among that 4 will likely push their way into the rotation as Teheran and Newk work their way out over the next 1-2 seasons.
    There is a lot of "trade Teheran" going around on the thread (not in Enscheff's post) and if they could get value for him, I'm on that train. But why trade Teheran and sign another veteran? I doubt we could get one at the same price that would be an upgrade. If one of the younger guys is deemed ready, the addition of Gausman likely allows a trade of Teheran (and again, I'm down with that), but I don't get the veteran-for-veteran replacement plan.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    There is a lot of "trade Teheran" going around on the thread (not in Enscheff's post) and if they could get value for him, I'm on that train. But why trade Teheran and sign another veteran? I doubt we could get one at the same price that would be an upgrade. If one of the younger guys is deemed ready, the addition of Gausman likely allows a trade of Teheran (and again, I'm down with that), but I don't get the veteran-for-veteran replacement plan.
    Yeah, I worry that the Teheran trade opportunity has left with Elvis. I said back at the beginning of the rebuild that he needed to be traded then. Most everyone was against that and responded that his contract was so good that he could be traded at any time, essentially assuming a continued market. It didn't happen that way.

    Now, it's harder to trade anyone because it looks like we are firmly in the window of contention. However, I think you still have to keep one eye on 3-4 years out or risk becoming the Royals. Take Folty for example. He looks like he may be developing into an ace. However, he's got 3 years control after this year and beginning to get expensive. He has essentially spent 2+ developmental years in the ML burning through control time at a time when the Braves just needed warm bodies to field a team. He probably makes $8M next year, $14M after that and $20M after that IF he stays on the current path and enters FA as a 30 YO looking for 5 years $125M minimum. Certainly no requirement to trade him now. But it shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. Same thing goes for Gausman. But Gausman unfortunately has less value in return.

    And obviously Newk is someone who you have to be willing to consider moving given the right return.

    I guess what I'm saying is that some of the pitchers will be traded. I think it's a mistake to assume that the ones traded should or will be the prospects.

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