The mood around here is very positive, almost giddy, about the starting pitching we have accumulated. I think when evaluating the developments this year, the picture is more mixed than is generally realized. Still let me start with the positives:
1) Wilson. Made his major league debut at 20. He started the season in High A. I would give him some additional seasoning in AAA next year, but for me he is now a favorite for a long-term spot in the major league rotation.
2) Touki. Had some bad luck last year in terms of results not matching the peripherals. I'm not surprised to see the results converge to the peripherals this year. I think now he is a bit overrated around here. But definitely a positive story for 2018.
3) Folty. I'm including guys at the major league level in this assessment and he is making a case for turning into that homegrown TOR guy.
4) Gausman. I like what I've seen so far. Obviously the results have exceeded what the peripherals suggest. Still, we have to put the acquisition of this guy into the plus column.
5) Suarez. Obviously a nice surprise. Does not matter in terms of implications beyond this year.
6) Muller. Has really stepped it up and is now a legitimate prospect.
Now the minuses. Not as many as positive developments, but they involve two of our brightest prospects.
1) Soroka. I've had a nagging concern as he has zipped through the system that he was being pushed too hard too fast. The promotions have been aggressive and the workload heavy for a teen-age pitcher. Hope that's not why the shoulder problems cropped up. But this is a big minus for me given that I rated him very highly.
2) Gohara. I rated him and Soroka above all others in our system. So another big minus to me whatever the reason. Hopefully he bounces back.
3) Allard. Even though he did ok in AAA, I think we have all had to lower our expectations based on what we have seen in the majors.
4) Wentz. An almost lost year due to injuries. And I wasn't that impressed even before this year.
Now for the guys who essentially held serve:
1) Anderson. Continues to advance steadily. He doesn't flash the potential that guys like Soroka and Gohara did. But that still leaves room for plenty of value.
2) Wright. Similar to Anderson but one level closer to the majors.
3) Fried. Quite a bit of potential. But can't seem to have a long stretch of success. Hopefully, a solution is found to the problem with blisters.
4) Newcomb. I think we know what he is. Some of us are too easily seduced by the occasional outstanding performance.
5) Teheran. Innings eater is what he is now.
For me the negative developments with respect to Soroka and Gohara carry a lot of weight because those two are the guys who I think had the most upside. Wilson, Touki and Folty have been very nice positive developments. I would say Folty is the biggest positive development, partly because it is happening at the major league level. I think he hasn't reached his peak yet.
My Top 5 overall: Folty, Soroka, Gohara, Gausman, Wilson. Ranked by expected peak for a single major league season.
In terms of those expected peak seasons in terms of fWAR, I think Folty has a 5 WAR season in him (he's at 3.2 so far this year). I'd peg Soroka and Gohara at 4.5. Gausman at 4 and Wilson at 3.5. ymmv
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