09/09/18 GDT Braves (Toussaint) vs. D’Backs (Ray) I guess I have to do everything

[bravesfanMatt]

Man, second place since last Friday feels so good....

Probably third behind the sand fleas by this Friday.

[Hulavol]

Oh, most definitely. Maybe even fall behind the Mets by next Monday.

[msstate7]

Quite a bit. You joined here in 2015. But his nickname here when we were actually decent was Absolute Filth.

I just didn't remember him hitting that high. Guess I'm getting old

[50PoundHead]

Oh, most definitely. Maybe even fall behind the Mets by next Monday.

Top ten draft slot!

[Southcack77]

Actually, I was just eating a slice of thin crust pizza and one of the pieces of crust lodged into my gums. Chewing that crust is like chewing shrapnel. So its pretty painful. Bleeding from my mouth a good bit. Other than that I'm good.

You may have scurvy.

[Southcack77]

I believe I am too low on Camargo based on the evidence to date.

Man, he's been a big surprise. His second half is again BABIP fueled, but I think maybe he could repeat something like this.

Because I'm stubborn perhaps, I still doubt he will.

[UNCBlue012]

I believe I am too low on Camargo based on the evidence to date.

Man, he's been a big surprise. His second half is again BABIP fueled, but I think maybe he could repeat something like this.

Because I'm stubborn perhaps, I still doubt he will.

I'm actually with you on this. I like Camargo and have never had an issue with him, but I just figured he'd fizzle out at some point. Well, he hasn't and I'm not sure he actually will. He's a near-perfect fit anywhere in the lineup, produces pop and is versatile defensively. No matter what happens longterm, he would likely be a big piece in a championship-worthy team.

[nsacpi]

Camargo's second half numbers probably represent a hot streak. His career numbers probably give the most accurate read on what we can expect going forward. He's the kind of player we want to give 500 or so ABs to.

[UNCBlue012]

Give me .286/.350 with really solid defense and some pop all day.

[nsacpi]

I would guess Camargo would also be a fairly good outfielder (a la Martin Prado), which will make it easier to get at bats for Riley when the time comes. Its a good problem to have to worry about getting all our hitters some at bats. The Cubs have managed fine in recent years with a lot of position sharing.

[msstate7]

this guy here pays attention.

Acuna certainly looks to the better hitter now. I certainly would rather have him. Soto still damn good at .922 ops to Acuna's .948

[bravesfanMatt]

Acuna certainly looks to the better hitter now. I certainly would rather have him. Soto still damn good at .922 ops to Acuna's .948

Yeah but Soto will likely get busted for taking enhanced geritol and juicing with prunes. Not sure I would want to risk him

[Chipper]

Man, second place since last Friday feels so good....

After Friday's game, Braves were 3-7 in the last 10 games. Nothing to be proud of.

[Enscheff]

After Friday's game, Braves were 3-7 in the last 10 games. Nothing to be proud of.

It' almost like a 10 game sample is small enough to be nearly meaningless...

[nsacpi]

It' almost like a 10 game sample is small enough to be nearly meaningless...

what's cute is when someone tries to use a small sample to project over a small sample....ayyy

[Super]

After Friday's game, Braves were 3-7 in the last 10 games. Nothing to be proud of.

1st place by 4.5 games.
i'm proud

[striker42]

I believe I am too low on Camargo based on the evidence to date.

Man, he's been a big surprise. His second half is again BABIP fueled, but I think maybe he could repeat something like this.

Because I'm stubborn perhaps, I still doubt he will.

His blistering second half is definitely BABIP fueled (.371 BABIP) but his first half was BABIP suppressed (.279). His BABIP for the year is .319 which is probably about right.

I'll take .278/.359/.475 with 20 HRs and great defense from a 3B every day of the week.

Just for context, Johan's 3.2 WAR puts him 8th just after Eugenio Suarez and just before Travis Shaw. He also has the lowest number of PAs of any of the top 15 3B in WAR.

[Enscheff]

We will have to take a deep dive into the numbers in the off season, but it appears 3b isn’t a glaring need with Camargo and Riley in the system. That’s good news because the Braves May not have as much cash to spend as we hope, so cheap production at 3b would be huge

A cursory look over Camargo's numbers shows a bit of "luck".

Of the 12 regular and semi-regular players on the Braves roster, Camargo ranks as the 3rd most "lucky" batter in terms of xOBA-xwOBA:

1 Charlie Culberson 0.340 - 0.271 0.069
2 Preston Tucker 0.323 - 0.290 0.033
3 Johan Camargo 0.358 - 0.328 0.030
4 Ozzie Albies 0.330 - 0.314 0.016
5 Dansby Swanson 0.298 - 0.285 0.013
6 Ender Inciarte 0.303 - 0.298 0.005
7 Ronald Acuna Jr. 0.399 - 0.403 -0.004
8 Nick Markakis 0.356 - 0.369 -0.013
9 Ryan Flaherty 0.263 - 0.278 -0.015
10 Kurt Suzuki 0.335 - 0.351 -0.016
11 Freddie Freeman 0.378 - 0.403 -0.025
12 Tyler Flowers 0.320 - 0.363 -0.043

Culberson is obviously producing way above his true talent level. We all know this already.

I've spent a lot of time delving into whether or not it's a skill for a player to consistently outproduce his xwOBA, and came to the conclusion that Ender was one of the guys who has some skill in that area (he had done it 3 years in a row). Suddenly in 2018 he's not. He hasn't changed in 2 of the skills that contribute to outproducing xwOBA (being LHed and having above average speed), but he has stopped spraying the ball around as well as he had previously, and perhaps he's gotten a bit unlucky.

Camargo isn't particularly fast, he doesn't spray the ball around very evenly, but he does bat LHed a majority of the time. Taken all together, Camargo doesn't profile as a guy who will consistently beat his xwOBA by much.

Looking into the wOBA-xwOBA by contact quality reveals where much of Camargo's "luck" has been happening...

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site...nch-anglespeed

Barrels: 0.113 (#2 behind only Culberson's insane 0.431)
Solid: 0.420 (#1 ahead of Ender at 0.234)
Flare: 0.069 (#2 behind Culberson at 0.098)
Under: -0.009 (Middle of the pack)
Topped: -0.012 (Middle of the pack)
Weak: 0.040 (Middle of the pack)

What we are seeing is Camargo regularly getting extremely fortunate outcomes when he makes Solid contact. This isn't Barrel contact, rather it's the contact just below that quality of contact. Rather than producing a ~.700 wOBA on those 20 batted balls, Camargo has produced a 1.091 wOBA.

There have been 126 MLB batters with 20+ Solid contact balls in 2018. Camargo ranks #2 in "luck" on those types of batted balls. When that luck regresses, some of those HRs and doubles will turn into fly outs, and his BABIP and HR/FB rate will drop.

Camargo's 94.0 FB/LD exit velocity RHed supports a Top 25% HR/FB rate (17%-18%), but his 89.6 FB/LD exit velocity (86.8 since August 1) LHed still only supports a ~9% HR/FB rate. If Camargo plays everyday, and faces roughly 2:1 RHP:LHP, we should expect an overall HR/FB rate around 12%.

So what is a guy who profiles as a hitter with a 7%-8% BB rate, a ~20% K rate, a .300-.310 BABIP and a 12% HR rate while hitting 30%-35% FBs?

Almost exactly the .260/.320/.415 line FG projects for him going forward. That's an average-ish hitter overall with plus defense at 3B, who would be best served seeing more LHP than RHP. The Braves could still use a LHH 3B, and I hope to see them get one this off season.

[Tapate50]

A cursory look over Camargo's numbers shows a bit of "luck".

Of the 12 regular and semi-regular players on the Braves roster, Camargo ranks as the 3rd most "lucky" batter in terms of xOBA-xwOBA:

1 Charlie Culberson 0.340 - 0.271 0.069
2 Preston Tucker 0.323 - 0.290 0.033
3 Johan Camargo 0.358 - 0.328 0.030
4 Ozzie Albies 0.330 - 0.314 0.016
5 Dansby Swanson 0.298 - 0.285 0.013
6 Ender Inciarte 0.303 - 0.298 0.005
7 Ronald Acuna Jr. 0.399 - 0.403 -0.004
8 Nick Markakis 0.356 - 0.369 -0.013
9 Ryan Flaherty 0.263 - 0.278 -0.015
10 Kurt Suzuki 0.335 - 0.351 -0.016
11 Freddie Freeman 0.378 - 0.403 -0.025
12 Tyler Flowers 0.320 - 0.363 -0.043

Culberson is obviously producing way above his true talent level. We all know this already.

I've spent a lot of time delving into whether or not it's a skill for a player to consistently outproduce his xwOBA, and came to the conclusion that Ender was one of the guys who has some skill in that area (he had done it 3 years in a row). Suddenly in 2018 he's not. He hasn't changed in 2 of the skills that contribute to outproducing xwOBA (being LHed and having above average speed), but he has stopped spraying the ball around as well as he had previously, and perhaps he's gotten a bit unlucky.

Camargo isn't particularly fast, he doesn't spray the ball around very evenly, but he does bat LHed a majority of the time. Taken all together, Camargo doesn't profile as a guy who will consistently beat his xwOBA by much.

Looking into the wOBA-xwOBA by contact quality reveals where much of Camargo's "luck" has been happening...

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site...nch-anglespeed

Barrels: 0.113 (#2 behind only Culberson's insane 0.431)
Solid: 0.420 (#1 ahead of Ender at 0.234)
Flare: 0.069 (#2 behind Culberson at 0.098)
Under: -0.009 (Middle of the pack)
Topped: -0.012 (Middle of the pack)
Weak: 0.040 (Middle of the pack)

What we are seeing is Camargo regularly getting extremely fortunate outcomes when he makes Solid contact. This isn't Barrel contact, rather it's the contact just below that quality of contact. Rather than producing a ~.700 wOBA on those 20 batted balls, Camargo has produced a 1.091 wOBA.

There have been 126 MLB batters with 20+ Solid contact balls in 2018. Camargo ranks #2 in "luck" on those types of batted balls. When that luck regresses, some of those HRs and doubles will turn into fly outs, and his BABIP and HR/FB rate will drop.

Camargo's 94.0 FB/LD exit velocity RHed supports a Top 25% HR/FB rate (17%-18%), but his 89.6 FB/LD exit velocity (86.8 since August 1) LHed still only supports a ~9% HR/FB rate. If Camargo plays everyday, and faces roughly 2:1 RHP:LHP, we should expect an overall HR/FB rate around 12%.

So what is a guy who profiles as a hitter with a 7%-8% BB rate, a ~20% K rate, a .300-.310 BABIP and a 12% HR rate while hitting 30%-35% FBs?

Almost exactly the .260/.320/.415 line FG projects for him going forward. That's an average-ish hitter overall with plus defense at 3B, who would be best served seeing more LHP than RHP. The Braves could still use a LHH 3B, and I hope to see them get one this off season.

What I think people easily forget about Camargo is that he wasn't "supposed" to be a MLB player at all with the bat, so for us to even be discussing it is a testament to his improvement. He has come a LONG LONG way in the last 2 years.

Fwiw, I think he ends up a shade better than your FG projection.

[nsacpi]

So what is a guy who profiles as a hitter with a 7%-8% BB rate, a ~20% K rate, a .300-.310 BABIP and a 12% HR rate while hitting 30%-35% FBs?

I'm curious, is a .300-.310 BABIP consistent with the xwOBA of .328.

His career data indicates he might be able to sustain a higher BABIP. In the majors he's got a career BABIP of .336. In relatively small samples in AAA he was at .324 and .333 in 2017 and 2018. And in AA, he was at .317.

Makes me think he could sustain a BABIP in the .320-.330 range.