Page 3 of 7 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast
Results 41 to 60 of 137

Thread: Extenting Acuna

  1. #41
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,669
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    Offer him a version of Trout's contract. If you include his pre-arb, Trout was signed for an 8/146 deal. So honestly I would say that I would offer him an 8/160 contract. Or going to your 10 year old model, 10/200 may get it done.
    Of course Trout was already established as the best player in baseball we he signed that deal. I don't think there has been enough inflation since then to justify it.

  2. #42
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    3,381
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    68
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,171
    Thanked in
    773 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I actually do not believe you are properly factoring in the risk of injury or disappointment.

    I think you are just assuming it won’t happen while assuming Acuna is going to be what he’s been for two months for the rest of his career.

    If Acuna is a 3 WAR player in years 7-10 he will earn his contract which would not particularly help the Braves.

    He’s really got to exceed that significantly to really move the needle.
    First of all, I think you are over-factoring the injury risk and disappointment risk. It is absolutely a risk, but saving a potential 15 million per year on his prime seasons is more than worth that risk. You are almost assuming it will certainly happen to justify not offering him the aforementioned deal. The second part of this simply isn't true. You don't have to provide surplus value to help a team. It makes the value proposition less appealing, sure. But we would still be getting market value on an impact player. That isn't easy and that is definitely beneficial to the Braves.

    Given what we currently know about Acuna's trajectory, its almost unreasonably bearish to assume that he would produce 3 wins per year or less during his prime seasons. He has produced more than that in half a season as a 20 year old. The only reason we set that 3 win number is to illustrate the bar that he would have to meet to make it worthwhile. A 3 win bar for a player of his caliber is not that high at all and I think the bearishness of that number properly bakes in the proposed injury/regression risk.

    Look at what the market currently is. Bryce Harper has averaged like 2.5 bWAR over the past 3 seasons and people are talking about giving him a 40 million+ AAV. Factor in inflation and Acuna could be seeing mind blowing numbers in 2025 or whenever.

  3. #43
    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    DANGERZONE
    Posts
    24,622
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,428
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    3,432
    Thanked in
    2,463 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Of course Trout was already established as the best player in baseball we he signed that deal. I don't think there has been enough inflation since then to justify it.
    It's been 3 years since Trout signed. 2 years of solid inflation. Though you're largely correct about being more established, but if we wait we'll have to pay more than that if he's as legit as he has been so far.
    Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg

  4. #44
    Gwinnett Bound
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Posts
    614
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    3
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    195
    Thanked in
    118 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    That's just false. I will go ahead and say that Acuna is going to be a monster bat in his last 20's. Having him on the team even at ~30 million a year will keep the Braves contention window open. I've been on board with this type of deal for awhile now. The point is you are keeping Acuna through his prime years. Paying near market value for that and then cutting them loose is not really an issue. You run into problems if you are the team that signs a 28-30 year old Acuna to a big contract and pay big money for his 35+ year old seasons. That almost guarantees non competitive seasons like you are seeing with the Tigers and Cabrera.
    Because of the current debt load I wouldn’t expect to see any extensions or signings beyond 3 - 4 years and 80-100 million. Player contracts are debt just like the debt for the brick and mortor at suntrust. I think it will take four years to bring the debt down to a point that mega contracts are even an option for the Braves. Remember how much of the Marlins debt was tied to Stanton.
    The strategy to invest in brick and mortor stinks for fans in the short term.

  5. #45
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    7,772
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    270
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,491
    Thanked in
    1,150 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    That's just false. I will go ahead and say that Acuna is going to be a monster bat in his last 20's. Having him on the team even at ~30 million a year will keep the Braves contention window open. I've been on board with this type of deal for awhile now. The point is you are keeping Acuna through his prime years. Paying near market value for that and then cutting them loose is not really an issue. You run into problems if you are the team that signs a 28-30 year old Acuna to a big contract and pay big money for his 35+ year old seasons. That almost guarantees non competitive seasons like you are seeing with the Tigers and Cabrera.
    You can’t create a window by paying players what they are worth as a mid-payroll franchise.

    You have to have surplus value elsewhere. The cheap production creates the window.

  6. #46
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,669
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    You can’t create a window by paying players what they are worth as a mid-payroll franchise.

    You have to have surplus value elsewhere. The cheap production creates the window.
    Having good/great players creates the window. The idea that the Braves can only be good when Acuna is cheap is dumb. The Braves will have high paid players on it's team and I think Acuna will be the best player of this group and is worth extending.

  7. #47
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    7,772
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    270
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,491
    Thanked in
    1,150 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    First of all, I think you are over-factoring the injury risk and disappointment risk. It is absolutely a risk, but saving a potential 15 million per year on his prime seasons is more than worth that risk. You are almost assuming it will certainly happen to justify not offering him the aforementioned deal. The second part of this simply isn't true. You don't have to provide surplus value to help a team. It makes the value proposition less appealing, sure. But we would still be getting market value on an impact player. That isn't easy and that is definitely beneficial to the Braves.

    Given what we currently know about Acuna's trajectory, its almost unreasonably bearish to assume that he would produce 3 wins per year or less during his prime seasons. He has produced more than that in half a season as a 20 year old. The only reason we set that 3 win number is to illustrate the bar that he would have to meet to make it worthwhile. A 3 win bar for a player of his caliber is not that high at all and I think the bearishness of that number properly bakes in the proposed injury/regression risk.

    Look at what the market currently is. Bryce Harper has averaged like 2.5 bWAR over the past 3 seasons and people are talking about giving him a 40 million+ AAV. Factor in inflation and Acuna could be seeing mind blowing numbers in 2025 or whenever.
    Acuna is going to get 500 PA. That’s much more than half a year.

    I understand that you think Acuna is going to be a perennial MVP candidate.

    That’s implied by the fact you think committing to pay him 30 million dollars is a good deal.

    You are essentially pencilling him into the hall of fame if you think he’s going to put up ten years of far better than 4 WAR production

    I’m not bearish on him, but you aren’t seriously considering the downside, imo.

    .

  8. #48
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    7,772
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    270
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,491
    Thanked in
    1,150 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Having good/great players creates the window. The idea that the Braves can only be good when Acuna is cheap is dumb. The Braves will have high paid players on it's team and I think Acuna will be the best player of this group and is worth extending.
    Don’t be stupid. That’s nothing like what I said.

    Paying Acuna fairly for production doesn’t create or eliminate a window.

    A fairly compensated Acuna can be a good player on a great team or he can be a good player on a bad team.

    You’ve all decided he’s a superstar. I might agree with you. But you aren’t actually considering the risk f his breaking his face and losing his power. Or never being able to fix a hole in his swing. Or of injuring his legs sufficient enough to make him a corner bat that doesn’t stay in great shape. Or of being derailed by constant nagging injuries. Or any of the 1000 things that regularly impact once hall of fame promising careers.

  9. #49
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    7,772
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    270
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,491
    Thanked in
    1,150 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by JxnMissFan View Post
    Because of the current debt load I wouldn’t expect to see any extensions or signings beyond 3 - 4 years and 80-100 million. Player contracts are debt just like the debt for the brick and mortor at suntrust. I think it will take four years to bring the debt down to a point that mega contracts are even an option for the Braves. Remember how much of the Marlins debt was tied to Stanton.
    The strategy to invest in brick and mortor stinks for fans in the short term.
    I think none of this is actually a concern.

  10. #50
    NL Rookie of the Year Acuña’s Bat Flip's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2018
    Location
    Gaffney, South Carolina (Home of the Big Butt "Peach" on I-85)
    Posts
    2,306
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    276
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    539
    Thanked in
    280 Posts
    Give him whatever he wants. I'm sure some people here would chip in.

  11. #51
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    3,381
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    68
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,171
    Thanked in
    773 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Acuna is going to get 500 PA. That’s much more than half a year.

    I understand that you think Acuna is going to be a perennial MVP candidate.

    That’s implied by the fact you think committing to pay him 30 million dollars is a good deal.

    You are essentially pencilling him into the hall of fame if you think he’s going to put up ten years of far better than 4 WAR production

    I’m not bearish on him, but you aren’t seriously considering the downside, imo.

    .
    Acuna had like 3.3 bWAR at the 81 game mark of his career. Half a season. His trajectory puts him squarely on course to exceed that in his prime years. By a lot. But even if he doesn't, I think 3 WAR is on the absolute floor of what you could expect of a prime aged healthy Acuna. Of course there is injury downside. But yeah if the worst realistic non-injury scenario for Acuna is paying him market value, while the upside is him being one of the top 5 players in baseball, you bet your a** I would pay him 25 million a year 6 years from now.

    What is your argument here? Is it that we should let him walk no matter what? Is it that we need more data? Because if we spend 3 more seasons getting data on Acuna so we are 100% sure that he is going to be a stud in his prime years, it'll be too late. We'll have to either pay him upwards of 40 million a year (while also guaranteeing him a contract that extends wayyyyy beyond his age 30 season) or watch him walk after arbitration. The downside to both of those are not only likely, but inevitable. We would either being paying an absurd amount of money for a declining 36 year old in 16 years or he'll be a Yankee/Dodger/Red Sock/Cub in 6 years.

  12. #52
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    just to be clear I'm not interested in paying Acuna fairly...that's why the offer I outlined in my opening post only pays him the current going rate for a 3 win player...I'm only interested in extenting our homegrown talent on team friendly terms...I'm not wedded to any particular player...but for reasons I've articulated in this thread I think AA should approach Acuna and his agent about a long-term deal this off-season
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  13. The Following User Says Thank You to nsacpi For This Useful Post:

    Jaw (09-11-2018)

  14. #53
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    3,381
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    68
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,171
    Thanked in
    773 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Don’t be stupid. That’s nothing like what I said.

    Paying Acuna fairly for production doesn’t create or eliminate a window.

    A fairly compensated Acuna can be a good player on a great team or he can be a good player on a bad team.

    You’ve all decided he’s a superstar. I might agree with you. But you aren’t actually considering the risk f his breaking his face and losing his power. Or never being able to fix a hole in his swing. Or of injuring his legs sufficient enough to make him a corner bat that doesn’t stay in great shape. Or of being derailed by constant nagging injuries. Or any of the 1000 things that regularly impact once hall of fame promising careers
    .
    No we absolutely are factoring that in and we are saying that the risk is easily worth the reward. There are very few non-injury things that could happen to him that would make me think he'll be worth less than 3 WAR from ages 27-30. Going by your logic, you should never ever give extensions to young players or really any kind of long term contract to anyone. All of the things you just described could happen to anyone. The fact is that its probably more likely to happen to Mike Trout in this time span than it is Acuna, given the age difference. But I'd still be willing to pay him a ton if the Braves could afford such a contract. The Braves probably couldn't. But they could afford 25-30 in a few years and Acuna is exactly the type of player that you'd wanna make that deal for.

  15. #54
    Arbitration Eligible
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    3,381
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    68
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,171
    Thanked in
    773 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    just to be clear I'm not interested in paying Acuna fairly...that's why the offer I outlined in my opening post only pays him the current going rate for a 3 win player...I'm only interested in extenting our homegrown talent on team friendly terms...I'm not wedded to any particular player...but for reasons I've articulated in this thread I think AA should approach Acuna and his agent about a long-term deal this off-season
    Yeah my argument is that I think the floor for age 27 Acuna is 3 wins, making 25 million a relatively safe bet. The most likely outcome is that he ends up being underpaid by 10-15 million a year.

  16. #55
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Yeah my argument is that I think the floor for age 27 Acuna is 3 wins, making 25 million a relatively safe bet. The most likely outcome is that he ends up being underpaid by 10-15 million a year.
    yup...and there is both upside and downside to that most likely outcome...that's the case with any contract
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  17. #56
    NL Rookie of the Year Acuña’s Bat Flip's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2018
    Location
    Gaffney, South Carolina (Home of the Big Butt "Peach" on I-85)
    Posts
    2,306
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    276
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    539
    Thanked in
    280 Posts
    He probably wouldn't take our offer.

  18. #57
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Ozzie's Chainz View Post
    He probably wouldn't take our offer.
    that's ok...what's not ok imo is not trying for that kind of deal
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  19. #58
    NL Rookie of the Year Acuña’s Bat Flip's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2018
    Location
    Gaffney, South Carolina (Home of the Big Butt "Peach" on I-85)
    Posts
    2,306
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    276
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    539
    Thanked in
    280 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    that's ok...what's not ok imo is not trying for that kind of deal
    I agree with that.

  20. #59
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,669
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Don’t be stupid. That’s nothing like what I said.

    Paying Acuna fairly for production doesn’t create or eliminate a window.

    A fairly compensated Acuna can be a good player on a great team or he can be a good player on a bad team.

    You’ve all decided he’s a superstar. I might agree with you. But you aren’t actually considering the risk f his breaking his face and losing his power. Or never being able to fix a hole in his swing. Or of injuring his legs sufficient enough to make him a corner bat that doesn’t stay in great shape. Or of being derailed by constant nagging injuries. Or any of the 1000 things that regularly impact once hall of fame promising careers.
    Every contract has risks. Some are worth making over others. Acuna at 30 million in his prime is a much better value than paying market value for a meh outfielder to replace him after he leaves

  21. #60
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    7,772
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    270
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,491
    Thanked in
    1,150 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Acuna had like 3.3 bWAR at the 81 game mark of his career. Half a season. His trajectory puts him squarely on course to exceed that in his prime years. By a lot. But even if he doesn't, I think 3 WAR is on the absolute floor of what you could expect of a prime aged healthy Acuna. Of course there is injury downside. But yeah if the worst realistic non-injury scenario for Acuna is paying him market value, while the upside is him being one of the top 5 players in baseball, you bet your a** I would pay him 25 million a year 6 years from now.

    What is your argument here? Is it that we should let him walk no matter what? Is it that we need more data? Because if we spend 3 more seasons getting data on Acuna so we are 100% sure that he is going to be a stud in his prime years, it'll be too late. We'll have to either pay him upwards of 40 million a year (while also guaranteeing him a contract that extends wayyyyy beyond his age 30 season) or watch him walk after arbitration. The downside to both of those are not only likely, but inevitable. We would either being paying an absurd amount of money for a declining 36 year old in 16 years or he'll be a Yankee/Dodger/Red Sock/Cub in 6 years.
    I’ve already said what I’d do. You can scroll back if you want.

    I don’t particularly care if he wears another uniform if it doesn’t make sense to keep him.

    That’s life. I’m beyond having player heroes at this point. Sometimes wish I wasn’t.

Similar Threads

  1. GDT 8/31 - Acuna's Day Off
    By Freshmaker in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 267
    Last Post: 09-01-2019, 08:13 AM
  2. Acuna, Kemp, DH, and the 10 day DL
    By Enscheff in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 11-29-2017, 03:25 PM
  3. Acuna to AAA
    By mqt in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 162
    Last Post: 07-14-2017, 10:20 PM
  4. Acuna
    By IslandBrave in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 273
    Last Post: 04-02-2017, 10:30 AM
  5. Extenting the Yute
    By nsacpi in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 05-17-2016, 08:11 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •