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Thread: Extenting Acuna

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    8 years would be my offer to. Acuna may wanna sign a deal especially if we can lock up Albies for something cheap. Acuna didn’t get a big signing bonus at all so waving 150 million in his face at his age may make him go ahead and do it. I totally agree that you do it sooner than later.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Individual-1 View Post
    Didn't Freeman sign 7 /114? 8 yr 120 would be fantastic.
    Freeman's deal was 8/135. It bought out his 3 arb seasons plus 5 FA years. Freeman's situation is nothing like trying to extend Acuna right now.

    If they are going to extend Acuna it has to happen before he gets $10M in his first arb season. The Braves lose a lot of leverage the closer he gets to becoming a millionaire.

    Is now the right time to hand a kid $100M+ after fewer than 500 MLB PAs?

    Hard to judge that risk, but it's the only way the Braves can keep him more than 6 years if he turns into a perennial MVP candidate like he appears to be.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 03-19-2019 at 01:38 PM.

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  4. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Freeman's deal was 8/135. It bought out his 3 arb seasons plus 5 FA years. Freeman's situation is nothing like trying to extend Acuna right now.

    If they are going to extend Acuna it has to happen before he gets $10M in his first arb season. The Braves lose a lot of leverage the closer he gets to becoming a millionaire.

    Is now the right time to hand a kid $100M+ after fewer than 500 MLB PAs?

    Hard to judge that risk, but it's the only way the Braves can keep him more than 6 years if he turns into a perennial MVP candidate like he appears to be.
    My bad, I just remember it being like 14-15 mill per that's why I said 114. lol.
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    Thought Experiment on Acuna

    What would you think about offering Acuna a 10 year $175M contract extension tomorrow?

    I know the club control issue and arbitration issue and risk associated with him not being who we think he will be, BUT:

    If he gets close to FA and he's anywhere near as good as he is now, then the Braves won't be able to afford re-signing him.

    If he continues on the trajectory he's on now he's probably looking at (2)$0.6M, (3)$2.5M, (4)$5M, (5) $10M, (6)$20M through arbitration, so assuming those numbers are close, you overpay by about $49.5M

    Let's assume the next 5 years he averages $30M per year (which seems a good bet given his expected ability and the current market) or $150M, you underpay by $72.5M

    But you also keep him in Atlanta (which isn't happening without an extension), keep him through and a bit past his prime (31), and locks in a relatively low salary for a player of his skills (you hope) for 5 years.

    In other words, assuming performance and freedom from catastrophic injury, he's a bargain the last five years of his contract, even while overpaying on the front side.

    I realize that waiting another year, maybe two, is safer, but waiting brings its own risk. Does the AAV have to go up? Is it still 10 years, taking you through age 33? Is he in arbitration and willing to bet on himself cruising into a true FA?

    Considering the concept of ramp up to being competitive, which is what AA appears to be doing, it might make sense to gamble.

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    I saw the thread title and the poster and just assumed this was going to be 2,000 words on why the Braves needed to trade Acuna ASAP.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MadduxFanII View Post
    I saw the thread title and the poster and just assumed this was going to be 2,000 words on why the Braves needed to trade Acuna ASAP.
    I can do that if you wish. And you must, since you felt the need to add your thoughts.

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    Just get it done. Tack on some crazy option years.
    Team option starting at 30 and going up 5 million every year. Team option him up to 60 million a year.

    Present value of money is something. Risk of injury is something. Performance is a risk.

    I’d think hard about 350 for 13. Beat Harper and go all in.

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    More baselines.

    Bregman just got 6 years, 100 million, covers 2 FA years.

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    We already discussed an Acuna extension in another thread....titled “Extenting Acuna”.

    It’s literally 4 posts below this and was commented on today.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    More baselines.

    Bregman just got 6 years, 100 million, covers 2 FA years.
    Bergman entering last pre arb season gives up 2 years at 17m a pop.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    What would you think about offering Acuna a 10 year $175M contract extension tomorrow?

    I know the club control issue and arbitration issue and risk associated with him not being who we think he will be, BUT:

    If he gets close to FA and he's anywhere near as good as he is now, then the Braves won't be able to afford re-signing him.

    If he continues on the trajectory he's on now he's probably looking at (2)$0.6M, (3)$2.5M, (4)$5M, (5) $10M, (6)$20M through arbitration, so assuming those numbers are close, you overpay by about $49.5M

    Let's assume the next 5 years he averages $30M per year (which seems a good bet given his expected ability and the current market) or $150M, you underpay by $72.5M

    But you also keep him in Atlanta (which isn't happening without an extension), keep him through and a bit past his prime (31), and locks in a relatively low salary for a player of his skills (you hope) for 5 years.

    In other words, assuming performance and freedom from catastrophic injury, he's a bargain the last five years of his contract, even while overpaying on the front side.

    I realize that waiting another year, maybe two, is safer, but waiting brings its own risk. Does the AAV have to go up? Is it still 10 years, taking you through age 33? Is he in arbitration and willing to bet on himself cruising into a true FA?

    Considering the concept of ramp up to being competitive, which is what AA appears to be doing, it might make sense to gamble.
    sounds like a plan stan
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    We already discussed an Acuna extension in another thread....titled “Extenting Acuna”.

    It’s literally 4 posts below this and was commented on today.
    let a thousand extensions bloom
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    We already discussed an Acuna extension in another thread....titled “Extenting Acuna”.

    It’s literally 4 posts below this and was commented on today.
    Yeah, well glad they merged in.

    I've gotten to where I don't pay as much attention to the threads as I once did...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Bergman entering last pre arb season gives up 2 years at 17m a pop.
    Not sure where you are seeing this. Bregman's contract is a 5/100 extension over his 3 arb seasons plus 2 FA seasons, and he is still getting something like $600k in 2019.

    It probably breaks down as something like $40M-$45M for his 3 arb years and $55M-$60M for his 2 FA years.

    This contract also frames Acuna's price pretty well for those throwing around silly numbers like $200M+ for an extension. If Bregman was 5/100, Acuna is probably something fairly similar.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 03-19-2019 at 10:12 PM.

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  21. #115
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    Any extension should be full of generous monetary incentives. It will not be good if he becomes one of the best players in the league and is not getting paid his worth because he signed a contract too early.
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  22. #116
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    I would be willing to break records in order to buy out age 27-28 Acuna, but some of these offers are ridiculous. The most I could see us offering is like 8/150, and that is in the most ridiculous of circumstances. I'd probably be willing to do it to, but I have to admit that there may be a hint a irrationality in that. Once you get up into those numbers the risk/reward equation begins to change a bit. My willingness to do it relies heavily on my belief that Acuna has "best player in baseball" upside with a floor of a consistent all star. If I were a rational actor I'd have to scale that back a bit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Not sure where you are seeing this. Bregman's contract is a 5/100 extension over his 3 arb seasons plus 2 FA seasons, and he is still getting something like $600k in 2019.

    It probably breaks down as something like $40M-$45M for his 3 arb years and $55M-$60M for his 2 FA years.

    This contract also frames Acuna's price pretty well for those throwing around silly numbers like $200M+ for an extension. If Bregman was 5/100, Acuna is probably something fairly similar.
    Looks like I mixed up consecutive tweets, perhaps. The other guy in Houston got 17.5 for extra year.

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    Yeah it's 5/100, and this year pre-arb, so 3 arb years, and 2 FA years at 20 mil a year.

  25. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Yeah it's 5/100, and this year pre-arb, so 3 arb years, and 2 FA years at 20 mil a year.
    Yeah. It comes with a 10 mil signing bonus too. Smart way to get Bregman some cash now while saving the luxury tax hit until next season.

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    Some guy at TC went through this thread and converted it into an article, then slapped his name on it:

    https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/3/2...atlanta-braves

    His ultimate conclusion:

    6 years, $65 million which includes a $5 million signing bonus and two team options at $25 million each that would escalate to $30 million if he wins an MVP during the contract.

    Seems reasonable considering we laid out the entire logic path for him step by step. Specifically here:

    http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/sh...l=1#post572028
    Last edited by Enscheff; 03-21-2019 at 11:54 AM.

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