NLDS Game 1 vs LAD prep

[Enscheff]

We know the Braves will be playing the LAD in Game 1 of the LAD, and we know they will be facing a LHP...Kershaw or Ryu.

We also know Folty will be taking the hill for the Braves. The Dodgers lined up as follows vs a RHP in the tie-breaker game:

1. Pederson (L) LF - severe standard platoon splits
2. Turner (R) 3B - standard platoon splits
3. Muncy (L) 1B - standard platoon splits
4. Machado (R) SS - minimal platoon splits
5. Grandal (S) C - better vs RHP
6. Bellinger (L) CF - large standard platoon splits
7. Puig (R) RF - reverse platoon splits
8. Hernandez (R) 2B - standard platoon splits
9. Pitcher

This is a very balanced and very potent lineup.

Folty should be good for 18 batters, but there is no way Pederson can be allowed to face anything other than LHP after his first 2 PAs. No matter what is happening in the game, Venters faces Pederson for his 3rd PA, pitches around Turner, and then goes after Muncy. This happens. Period.

Someone then pitches around Machado, and a fresh LHP (probably Freeman) faces the Grandal/Bellinger/Puig portion of the lineup. Viz might come in here to face Puig if it's late and Freeman has struggled vs Grandal/Bellinger.

A fresh RHP faces Hernandez (Viz if it's the 8th, or if he's already in), and play match up with whomever bats in the 9th spot for the 3rd PA.

Minter faces Pederson/Turner/Muncy in their 4th PA...period. He can be allowed to face Machado if it's still the 8th inning. If the game isn't in the 8th by then, the Braves probably aren't in this game anyways.

Viz pitches the 9th if he hasn't been used. If he has been used that means he faced Hernandez in 7th or 8th and the game is over anyways.

The overall strategy should be (27 outs):

1. Folty pitches to 18 batters. (12-15 outs)
2. Venters faces the top of the lineup for PA 3. (2-3 outs)
3. Minter faces the top of the lineup for PA 4. (3-4 outs)
4. Viz pitches between Venters and Minter if it's late, or after Minter it isn't late. (3-4 outs)
5. Match up as best they can for all other batters. (1-5 outs)
6. Don't let Turner or Machado beat them.

[msstate7]

Snit is leaving folty in there for 6 unless he's being blasted

[CyYoung31]

We know the Braves will be playing the LAD in Game 1 of the LAD, and we know they will be facing a LHP...Kershaw or Ryu.

We also know Folty will be taking the hill for the Braves. The Dodgers lined up as follows vs a RHP in the tie-breaker game:

1. Pederson (L) LF - severe standard platoon splits
2. Turner (R) 3B - standard platoon splits
3. Muncy (L) 1B - standard platoon splits
4. Machado (R) SS - minimal platoon splits
5. Grandal (S) C - better vs RHP
6. Bellinger (L) CF - large standard platoon splits
7. Puig (R) RF - reverse platoon splits
8. Hernandez (R) 2B - standard platoon splits
9. Pitcher

This is a very balanced and very potent lineup.

Folty should be good for 18 batters, but there is no way Pederson can be allowed to face anything other than LHP after his first 2 PAs. No matter what is happening in the game, Venters faces Pederson for his 3rd PA, pitches around Turner, and then goes after Muncy. This happens. Period.

Someone then pitches around Machado, and a fresh LHP (probably Freeman) faces the Grandal/Bellinger/Puig portion of the lineup. Viz might come in here to face Puig if it's late and Freeman has struggled vs Grandal/Bellinger.

A fresh RHP faces Hernandez (Viz if it's the 8th, or if he's already in), and play match up with whomever bats in the 9th spot for the 3rd PA.

Minter faces Pederson/Turner/Muncy in their 4th PA...period. He can be allowed to face Machado if it's still the 8th inning. If the game isn't in the 8th by then, the Braves probably aren't in this game anyways.

Viz pitches the 9th if he hasn't been used. If he has been used that means he faced Hernandez in 7th or 8th and the game is over anyways.

The overall strategy should be (27 outs):

1. Folty pitches to 18 batters. (12-15 outs)
2. Venters faces the top of the lineup for PA 3. (2-3 outs)
3. Minter faces the top of the lineup for PA 4. (3-4 outs)
4. Viz pitches between Venters and Minter if it's late, or after Minter it isn't late. (3-4 outs)
5. Match up as best they can for all other batters. (1-5 outs)
6. Don't let Turner or Machado beat them.

[nsacpi]

They are likely to pinch hit for Pederson rather than leave him in for a high leverage AB against a lefty. Something to keep in mind. Do we prefer Kemp against Venters or Pederson against one of our righty pitchers.

[NYCBrave]

They are likely to pinch hit for Pederson rather than leave him in for a high leverage AB against a lefty. Something to keep in mind. Do we prefer Kemp against Venters or Pederson against one of our righty pitchers.

I was going to say the same. With their game 1 lineup and using their lefty batters, they'll have a few righties on the bench to counter any LH reliever we bring in. They won't be shy about pinch hitting for Pederaon, maybe even Muncy.

[Enscheff]

They are likely to pinch hit for Pederson rather than leave him in for a high leverage AB against a lefty. Something to keep in mind. Do we prefer Kemp against Venters or Pederson against one of our righty pitchers.

If bringing in Venters gets Pederson and Muncy out of the game in the middle innings, the Braves won that exchange. I would be shocked if it happens.

Pederson does not face a RHP other than Folty. Period. Whatever else happens is better than Pederson facing a RHP in his 3rd PA. I take Kemp vs Venters over Pederson vs any RHP not named Viz, with Pederson out of the game the rest of the way. I would be shocked if Pederson get's taken down vs Venters in the middle innings, and if he gets taken down vs Minter I still want Minter vs Kemp.

Now, if the Dodgers send a LHH to the plate in the 9 spot late, and Snit counters with a LHP, who is then countered with a RHH who the LHP must face, you leave the LHP in to face Pederson in hopes of forcing them to PH for Pederson. If they do PH for Pederson, Snit can swap to a RHP to face the PH and Turner.

But the overall strategy should be focused around the top of the lineup...Folty twice, Venters once, and Minter once. If the top of the lineup comes up a 5th time, the Braves have probably lost the game anyways.

[nsacpi]

Now, if the Dodgers send a LHH to the plate in the 9 spot late, and Snit counters with a LHP, who is then countered with a RHH who the LHP must face, you leave the LHP in to face Pederson in hopes of forcing them to PH for Pederson. If they do PH for Pederson, Snit can swap to a RHP to face the PH and Turner.

Yes. Unless it is a very unfavorable matchup/situation, once we go to the pen we shouldn't be afraid to have a lefty pitching against the #9 hitter. That would allow us to still have the right matchup if the Dodgers pinch hit for Pederson. Snitker better be ready to play some chess in this series.

[nsacpi]

The stretch of Muncy/Machado/Grandal/Bellinger/Puig is a chance for us to conserve arms. Use a lefty and walk Machado if the situation calls for it against that part of the lineup. If there is no room to walk Machado, we have to be willing to burn a righty just to face him and come back with a second lefty for the rest of that stretch.

I think having a lot of arms in the pen and using them optimally is going to be important in this series.

[Enscheff]

The stretch of Muncy/Machado/Grandal/Bellinger/Puig is a chance for us to conserve arms. Use a lefty and walk Machado if the situation calls for it against that part of the lineup. If there is no room to walk Machado, we have to be willing to burn a righty just to face him and come back with a second lefty for the rest of that stretch.

I think having a lot of arms in the pen and using them optimally is going to be important in this series.

Agreed. The Dodgers have 2 main LHP killers...Turner and Machdo. They can NOT be allowed to beat the Braves with a LHP on the mound.

In fact, I would actually extend the line to "Machado can not be allowed to beat the Braves with ANYONE on the mound". Machado should be pitched around in almost all circumstances since he isn't neutralized by much of anything.

[bravesfanMatt]

You guys are giving way to much credit to the intelligence of our manager and pitching coach. They just want them to pitch really good and see what happens. I am 100% certain twit and chuckie don’t have much of a game plan outside of if Folty is in trouble in the six this is my lefty righty if we are within 2 runs either direction and this is my lefty righty if we are within 3 runs either diretion. Then repeat for 7,8,9.

[nsacpi]

You guys are giving way to much credit to the intelligence of our manager and pitching coach. They just want them to pitch really good and see what happens. I am 100% certain twit and chuckie don’t have much of a game plan outside of if Folty is in trouble in the six this is my lefty righty if we are within 2 runs either direction and this is my lefty righty if we are within 3 runs either diretion. Then repeat for 7,8,9.

If its not a close game, it won't matter. But I am sure Snit and company will have mapped out all the various scenarios in much more detail than what we are discussing in this thread. There will be scenarios for starting pitchers leaving after pretty much any given inning and what to do in each case. What to do in each case to ensure you set up for a long extra inning game.

[Enscheff]

If its not a close game, it won't matter. But I am sure Snit and company will have mapped out all the various scenarios in much more detail than what we are discussing in this thread. There will be scenarios for starting pitchers leaving after pretty much any given inning and what to do in each case. What to do in each case to ensure you set up for a long extra inning game.

There are like a dozen or so scenarios to plan for...most involving when to double switch based on where the Braves are in their lineup at the time Folty needs to come out. The Braves want Venters and Minter to face both Pederson and Muncy, so a double switch might be required to make sure neither of those LHP come to the plate.

The rest can pretty much be planned out batter by batter and followed like a script. There is no excuse for Snit to not have every one of the dozen or so scenarios that matter accounted for and planned around. The FO needs to make sure of it. If I can plan like this in minutes, they can do a much more detailed plan over the course of several days.

This is why I wanted to see the Braves play 2-3 of their last games as if they were the NLDS to get used to managing the game in this manner.

[nsacpi]

There are like a dozen or so scenarios to plan for...most involving when to double switch based on where the Braves are in their lineup at the time Folty needs to come out. The Braves want Venters and Minter to face both Pederson and Muncy, so a double switch might be required to make sure neither of those LHP come to the plate.

The rest can pretty much be planned out batter by batter and followed like a script. There is no excuse for Snit to not have every one of the dozen or so scenarios that matter accounted for and planned around. The FO needs to make sure of it. If I can plan like this in minutes, they can do a much more detailed plan over the course of several days.

This is why I wanted to see the Braves play 2-3 of their last games as if they were the NLDS to get used to managing the game in this manner.

With Culberson in the lineup, it will be harder to execute a double switch.

[Enscheff]

You guys are giving way to much credit to the intelligence of our manager and pitching coach. They just want them to pitch really good and see what happens. I am 100% certain twit and chuckie don’t have much of a game plan outside of if Folty is in trouble in the six this is my lefty righty if we are within 2 runs either direction and this is my lefty righty if we are within 3 runs either diretion. Then repeat for 7,8,9.

As great as Folty has been this year, he still suffered greatly from the 3rd TTO penalty:

1st TTO: .250 wOBA
2nd TTO: .237 wOBA
3rd TTO: .328 wOBA
4th TTO: .366 wOBA

Surely the Braves know this, and surely they won't let Folty face the Pederson/Muncy portion of the Dodgers lineup 3 times.

[thewupk]

The Braves are going to blast Kershaw so Folty will have some breathing room.

[thewupk]

As great as Folty has been this year, he still suffered greatly from the 3rd TTO penalty:

1st TTO: .250 wOBA
2nd TTO: .237 wOBA
3rd TTO: .328 wOBA
4th TTO: .366 wOBA

Surely the Braves know this, and surely they won't let Folty face the Pederson/Muncy portion of the Dodgers lineup 3 times.

Sucks that Kapler isn't our manager right now

[Enscheff]

With Culberson in the lineup, it will be harder to execute a double switch.

The most logical place to execute a double switch will be the catcher spot batting 5th/6th. That means a 3rd catcher might be more valuable than usual without Culberson on the bench. Camargo in the 5th/6th slot is also a likely place to double switch, but that means Flaherty for the rest of the game.

I don't want to see anyone other than Swanson or Culberson at SS in a playoff game.

[GeorgiaGirl]

As I've said before, the 3rd time through the order stuff is a bridge too far for Snitker. He won't have guys go the 4th time unless they're really dealing and have pulled guys because of that in inning even when they're pitching well, but the 3rd time? It's a bridge too far. Expect Folty to go for as long as he can.

[nsacpi]

If he is pitching well, I would let Folty go through the order a third time until he lets someone on. At that point I bring in someone from the pen. First batter he lets on (even via error) is the last one he faces.

[Enscheff]

If he is pitching well, I would let Folty go through the order a third time until he lets someone on. At that point I bring in someone from the pen. First batter he lets on (even via error) is the last one he faces.

The "if he's pitching well" holds zero predictive value. The 3rd TTO numebrs already have a large survivor bias baked in due to the fact that struggling pitchers never get to face the order a 3rd time. Folty's .338 3rd TTO wOBA is only made up of starts where he was "pitching well".

And vs Pederson, Turner, Muncy and Machado, that 1 batter he lets on could very well be a HR in a close game. If Folty faces Pederson a 3rd time, Snit made a playoff game management mistake.

Of course all this assumes a close game. If the Braves are up by 4 the situation changes dramatically.