This is for our numbers-guys as well as anyone else.
Everyone has their line (or untouchables) - I'm guessing AA does as well - but how far would you go/believe you'd HAVE to go?
This is for our numbers-guys as well as anyone else.
Everyone has their line (or untouchables) - I'm guessing AA does as well - but how far would you go/believe you'd HAVE to go?
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
His framing sucks. Does that really hamper his value in AA's eyes?
fWAR of 3.7 in 2016, 3.8 in 2017, and 4.8 in 2018.
Has 2 more arb years left.
Would project him at 4.5 per year for those two years.
Salary in 2018 was $2.9M.
Lets say it goes up to $5M in 2019 and $9M in 2020. So he will be paid the equivalent of 1.5 wins at the going market rate.
Surplus value is 4.5+ 4.5-1.5=7.5 expected wins.
That gets you a Top 25 prospect. But not a Top 5 prospect.
The Braves top prospect at MLB pipeline is Soroka at #20. I don't think that would quite do it given the injury uncertainty. Maybe Soroka plus Fried. That would be a fair value package. Of course the Marlins will be looking for some team to overpay.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Originally Posted by nsacpi
OK - so IF we can assume Soroka's likely one of those that's "off-limits" (and obviously without your charts and using that same Pipeline Top 100 which Fried isn't on), after seeing the Yelich package, is it really THAT unrealistic to think that a quantity over quality offer of Gohara, Fried, A-Jax, and Allard would at the very least be worth making given the state of their system?
That's three arms who would immediately compete for starts in their rotation, plus a Catcher with experience handling each. Their current 2019 rotation looks something like Urena, Chen, Alcantara, Trevor Richards (and his Teheran-like velocity), and Jeff Brigham. Gohara and Fried would almost certainly replace Richards and Brigham, and would instantly upgrade their rotation. The only one of their next-best arms that's even close to ready is Nick Neidert, (who profiles as a #4/#5 at best), and he could arguably use another full year in the minors. Their closest "impact" arms (Guzman, Cabrera, and Garrett) are still in A-ball or injured.
They definitely aren't going to hand out market-value deals to SPs in their current state, and Gohara and Fried would certainly allow them to swallow some of the money that's due Chen that much earlier. Given the depth of RH starters in our system that are getting close (Touki, Soroka, Wright, Anderson, and Weigel) and the fact that we control Folty, Gausman, and Julio until some (if not all) of them are ready, I might even go so far as to tell them I'd substitute Wilson for Allard if that got it done - even though I'd try to avoid doing so if at all possible.
While that's a fairly substantial amount of controllable talent in a vacuum, from our perspective it really wouldn't hurt THAT much - and it would also be selling high on the guys most people have the most questions about around here to land arguably the biggest upgrade at a position of need that won't even cause a ripple in our financial pond. It's a big package, sure, but not the "monster package" Carp's talking about trying to avoid.
Last edited by clvclv; 10-04-2018 at 02:14 PM.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
Its worth trying. We snookered the Orioles into doing a quantity over quality deal. The Jeter regime is unproven. So who knows.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
clvclv (10-04-2018), The Chosen One (10-04-2018)
I don't recall Zook ever being considered a great framer before he got here (not that he necessarily fits into that category now - haven't seen the numbers). You'd have to think that Fasano and Flow have helped him in that department - no reason to think they couldn't do the same for Realmuto assuming he's coachable.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
Curious ... given the acquisition price, how much better is Realmuto than Grandal?
Would be interesting to hear that from our numbers-friends as well.
I'd personally rather make that type of deal for Realmuto because I think Grandal is going to get a pretty big offer (even if it's not crazy money), and I hate the idea of tying up big money in a "non-regular" - even though we have it. Plus, even though I understand everybody's reservations about trading that much depth, AA's going to have to do something to clear up some of the logjam at some point even if it's converting some of these guys to pen pieces. Touki, Soroka, and Wright need spots soon, and Anderson and Muller are coming fast.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
Yasmani is about a win less valuable by fWAR. But I don't think they include pitch framing. Properly valuing pitch framing might put Yasmani ahead.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Quite of few of them are going to end up as relievers. It will just take some time to sort out who fits best where.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
I think his numbers improved by the end of the year. He was posting some pretty horrid numbers around June if I remember correctly, and ended up around league average.
I'm not too keen on trading a monster package for any position player that plays < 140 games a year, but his pitch framing stats don't bother me as much. I'd be fine with resigning Zuk or bringing the Mac Attack back.
He hit well in April and hit well in a short stint to end the season, but the knee injury in May pretty much killed his year. Now, knee pain for an aging catcher doesn't exactly bode well for the future, but his hitting ability doesn't seem to be an issue as much as expecting him to stay healthy enough to catch for 80-90 games or more.
In a perfect world - the one where Mac could stay healthy enough to be behind the plate for 80-ish games - a Flow/Mac pairing would be ideal for me, but only because I'm sold on Contreras and believe that he could replace Mac in that situation if we picked up Flow's 2020 option.
I'm as big a Mac fan as exists - I just don't see that happening. Then you have to also have him healthy during this time of year if you're contending
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
I could support trading for say degrom, an established consistent ace with below market salary for limited time. Paying the inconsistent Corbin for 4-5 market rate seasons is less appealing, especially since he’s had whispers of injury concerns.
Depends on what they get, I suppose.
At this point I’m ready to trade for Realmuto lol
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