2018 Offseason And Targets

[Carp]

Look, a 4.0+ BB/9 DOES mean he doesn't know where the ball is going.

Did you notice the Dodgers literally swinging at nothing those guys were throwing? Don't you think more teams might do that?

Actually that's not necessarily what it means at all. People have high walk rates for many reasons. You're the same type of fan they said Newk was better than Folty in April/May because "Folty didn't know where his fastball was going."

[BeanieAntics]

I mean hell Fried's minor league bb rate could be fairly viewed as bad. It's been worse in the majors though I agree that's two separate smallish samples.

I understand your point to be that you would not move years of control of Newk or Fried for one year of Bumgarner, because Bumgarner isn't enough of an upgrade.

I might disagree on Fried. I don't see the fit in Atlanta and I just don't think his market value is tremendous at this point in his career. It would give me heartburn to do it, but I think that shows it's getting close to a proper price. I'm not sure the Giants would see it that way. They probably are going to hold out hope for getting a real prospect.

I would absolutely not move one the 55s for him. Or any 50 position player.

Max has barely enough time to exhaust his rookie status and was ranked 78th on Fangraph's top 100. He put up a 2.93 ERA with a 3.24 xFIP since he exhausted it. I can't imagine he has lost value since being removed from the top 100. At worst, he is still right around the same value which is about 22 million.

Edit: I wouldn't call 22 million tremendously valuable, but the 5 years of control we have over Fried is certainly more valuable than the 1 year of control over Bumgarner.

[Heyward]

Once again, sure let's trade Fried. But convince me why we should trade Fried and Allard for a 10 million dollar asset when we could trade them for a 30 million dollar asset.

It has nothing to do with wanting to keep Fried when he has no place on the roster. It has everything to do with wanting to maximize whatever return we get for him.

Like who exactly?

[Heyward]

Max has barely enough time to exhaust his rookie status and was ranked 78th on Fangraph's top 100. He put up a 2.93 ERA with a 3.24 xFIP since he exhausted it. I can't imagine he has lost value since being removed from the top 100. At worst, he is still right around the same value which is about 22 million.

Edit: I wouldn't call 22 million tremendously valuable, but the 5 years of control we have over Fried is certainly more valuable than the 1 year of control over Bumgarner.

You not factoring in the comp pick we'll get for Bumgarner assuming he isnt washed enough the way people talk about him to qualify for one.

[nsacpi]

You not factoring in the comp pick we'll get for Bumgarner assuming he isnt washed enough the way people talk about him to qualify for one.

what are the chances he'll do well enough to justify a qualifying offer

[Heyward]

what are the chances he'll do well enough to justify a qualifying offer

Provided he gets in no more accidents, i'd assume he should be good enough to get one.

[BeanieAntics]

You not factoring in the comp pick we'll get for Bumgarner assuming he isnt washed enough the way people talk about him to qualify for one.

I've already factored that comp pick in another post. Its worth less than 5 million dollars and its not even guaranteed. But fine I'll say we're paying 30 million for a ~14 million dollar asset. Still bad.

[BeanieAntics]

Like who exactly?

Go read through the other posts. I've said that I'm willing to pay more than just Fried if it means that the value is more even. 50 million for 50 million > 30 million for 10 million

[clvclv]

Its fine if you don't mind overpaying, but its still unnecessary. Once again I think you make a fine argument for why you should perhaps think about consolidating some of these arms into one pitcher, but I don't buy into the argument that the pitcher needs to be Bumgarner. We probably do need to move some of the arms further down the pecking order, but we shouldn't be move them just for the sake of doing it. Its not smart teambuilding. If you want to move them, find a trade where the value lines up correctly, even if you have to pay a little more.

Put it this way, I'd rather pay 1000 dollars for a 1000 dollar TV than pay 300 dollars for a 100 dollar TV.

Which is perfectly understandable, and I haven't really looked at rotation options that fit the value charts better - to be honest, I don't see much need to fiddle with the rotation unless it's at the top - MadBum's just a popular subject (as is Greinke). Right or wrong, I'd rather gamble on Bumgarner somehow (unimaginably) stumbling back into his former form and catching lightning in a bottle than try to work out something unbelievably complicated to get Greinke and Peralta - simply because the money owed Greinke could easily completely ruin a mid-market team like the Braves if things happen to start going bad (it's certainly done that to Arizona).

Pretty interesting discussion on XM today that kinda goes along with some points I've made before. Considering you're always gambling on health to begin with and we just got who could be "the answer" we've been looking for for a long time in Donaldson, try this one on for size. Imagine Donaldson returns to relative health and All-Star level performance this year. Is there ANYBODY you'd rather have hitting behind Freddie (within reason, of course)? Rather than sinking fairly substantial money in what most everyone agrees as imperfect options in Brantley or McCutchen, make a move for Pederson to platoon with Duvall (or simply pick up Joyce). Doing so still keeps Camargo as our version of Gonzalez (stronger bench), but also leaves those funds free in the event Donaldson shines and you try to buy out his next two seasons for around $50 million.

AA has already said they're going to get OF mitts for both Johan and Riley before camp opens anyway. There are your options for LF in 2020 - and maybe you move Pederson next winter (if you went and got him for this season) to get a couple prospects back. That gives you a 2020 and 2021 lineup of Acuna, Ozzie, Freddie, Donaldson, Riley, Catcher, Ender/Pache, Dansby.

If we're assuming the window is now wide open and this is the time to "go for it", wouldn't you much rather have Freddie, Donaldson (assuming health), and Riley in 2020 and 2021 than Freddie, Brantley/McCutchen/Riley??? The $15 million you DON't spend on Brantley or McCutchen combined with Julio's commitment disappearing allows you to pay for Donaldson. Take the $25-ish million we assume AA has at his disposal now and go get one of the Cleveland guys to front the rotation for the duration of time you'll have Acuna, Freddie, and Donaldson together and get one of the guys to seriously upgrade the back-end for those three years and see how far you can go.

That doesn't fit the perpetual competitor dream (which I think is more dead than people want to admit), but would give you a *elluva chance at being a legitimate contender for three solid years - which is probably a more realistic goal anyway. Think about how ga-ga everybody was over the Cubs were set up not so long ago, and look at where they are today.

[BeanieAntics]

Which is perfectly understandable, and I haven't really looked at rotation options that fit the value charts better - to be honest, I don't see much need to fiddle with the rotation unless it's at the top - MadBum's just a popular subject (as is Greinke). Right or wrong, I'd rather gamble on Bumgarner somehow (unimaginably) stumbling back into his former form and catching lightning in a bottle than try to work out something unbelievably complicated to get Greinke and Peralta - simply because the money owed Greinke could easily completely ruin a mid-market team like the Braves if things happen to start going bad (it's certainly done that to Arizona).

Pretty interesting discussion on XM today that kinda goes along with some points I've made before. Considering you're always gambling on health to begin with and we just got who could be "the answer" we've been looking for for a long time in Donaldson, try this one on for size. Imagine Donaldson returns to relative health and All-Star level performance this year. Is there ANYBODY you'd rather have hitting behind Freddie (within reason, of course)? Rather than sinking fairly substantial money in what most everyone agrees as imperfect options in Brantley or McCutchen, make a move for Pederson to platoon with Duvall (or simply pick up Joyce). Doing so still keeps Camargo as our version of Gonzalez (stronger bench), but also leaves those funds free in the event Donaldson shines and you try to buy out his next two seasons for around $50 million.

AA has already said they're going to get OF mitts for both Johan and Riley before camp opens anyway. There are your options for LF in 2020 - and maybe you move Pederson next winter (if you went and got him for this season) to get a couple prospects back. That gives you a 2020 and 2021 lineup of Acuna, Ozzie, Freddie, Donaldson, Riley, Catcher, Ender/Pache, Dansby.

If we're assuming the window is now wide open and this is the time to "go for it", wouldn't you much rather have Freddie, Donaldson (assuming health), and Riley in 2020 and 2021 than Freddie, Brantley/McCutchen/Riley??? The $15 million you DON't spend on Brantley or McCutchen combined with Julio's commitment disappearing allows you to pay for Donaldson. Take the $25-ish million we assume AA has at his disposal now and go get one of the Cleveland guys to front the rotation for the duration of time you'll have Acuna, Freddie, and Donaldson together and get one of the guys to seriously upgrade the back-end for those three years and see how far you can go.

That doesn't fit the perpetual competitor dream (which I think is more dead than people want to admit), but would give you a *elluva chance at being a legitimate contender for three solid years - which is probably a more realistic goal anyway. Think about how ga-ga everybody was over the Cubs were set up not so long ago, and look at where they are today.

The Cubs certainly appeared to be set up for an extended window and it appears to have shrunk significantly. But I think they made several mistakes along the way that contributed to them shortening their window.

The Chapman and the Quintana trades along with the Heyward signing being the biggest examples of that. I think they just gave up too much future value for the sake of going for it. Its possible that they wouldn't have won the WS without the Chapman trade, but I think they could have still gotten it done with a more moderate swap or a swap for a longer term asset. Instead of keeping one eye on the present and one eye on the future, they locked in on winning in the present and I think that will cost them what could have been a longer window. So I'm not sure they disprove the notion of being able to consistently compete in today's climate (or at least have have 5+ year windows).

So far, it seems like AA has done a fantastic job of building a competitor and he hasn't sacrificed a single prospect that I've missed. He seems to be finely tuned to the notion of getting good value for every move. Basically, he seems like he's a master of buying without mortgaging the future. I expect to see more of the same in the future. I don't see him making a deal unless he thinks it'll be a good value.

[Enscheff]

You wouldn't trade two fringe major leaguers for a world series MVP in his prime?

lol.

You may have just set the new bar for dumbest comment...

Well done sir!

This again was the point to begin with. Fussing about Bumgarner being a World Series MVP and his playoff exploits is pretty ridiculous - if you believe his suddenly going to return to that level, you are a bit nuts.

I do think the argument about him "easily" outpitching Newk isn't a given by any means.

Look....

When clv is smarter than you, you know there's a serious problem.

[Enscheff]

He's 29! He had two successive mediocre seasons due to fluke injuries. Bum is going to have a huge season next year and he's going to cost a lot less at this moment than he will in July.

I can't wait to quote this in the future.

[Enscheff]

All the Giants are hoping for is that some antsy team offers them one real prospect for him. They'd probably jump on that.

I agree if they can't elicit that, they'll probably hold him to see if he can build up some value and maybe get someone to bite.

I'd be looking at trying to get him at that 12-14m surplus value it's fair to value him with.

The idea of trading for Bumgarner when you concede he's a 2+ win guy is silly when the Braves are loaded with young arms who can reasonably be expected to produce exactly that for free.

[Super]

saying fried has no place on the team is kinda dumb.

the thirst for bumgarner is because he’s a world series MVP in his prime, duh!

[Enscheff]

saying fried has no place on the team is kinda dumb.

the thirst for bumgarner is because he’s a world series MVP in his prime, duh!

I bet crazytrain LOVED the Matt Kemp acquisition

[Heyward]

Bowman said the Braves continue to show interest in Corbin and it would cost Pache/Wright/Touki for Kluber. Whew.

And Britton is more likely than Kimbrel.

[bravesfanMatt]

Why has no one created a thread about the trade today between the Braves and Mariners. Huge.

[clvclv]

The Cubs certainly appeared to be set up for an extended window and it appears to have shrunk significantly. But I think they made several mistakes along the way that contributed to them shortening their window.

The Chapman and the Quintana trades along with the Heyward signing being the biggest examples of that. I think they just gave up too much future value for the sake of going for it. Its possible that they wouldn't have won the WS without the Chapman trade, but I think they could have still gotten it done with a more moderate swap or a swap for a longer term asset. Instead of keeping one eye on the present and one eye on the future, they locked in on winning in the present and I think that will cost them what could have been a longer window. So I'm not sure they disprove the notion of being able to consistently compete in today's climate (or at least have have 5+ year windows).

So far, it seems like AA has done a fantastic job of building a competitor and he hasn't sacrificed a single prospect that I've missed. He seems to be finely tuned to the notion of getting good value for every move. Basically, he seems like he's a master of buying without mortgaging the future. I expect to see more of the same in the future. I don't see him making a deal unless he thinks it'll be a good value.

This is what I'd have nightmares about a Greinke trade turning into - wouldn't hurt nearly as long obviously, but the Greinke-type of money would hurt Atlanta just as bad as the Heyward money hurts a bigger-market club like the Cubs.

[Hudson2]

Bowman said the Braves continue to show interest in Corbin and it would cost Pache/Wright/Touki for Kluber. Whew.

And Britton is more likely than Kimbrel.

Yeah that trade ain't happening then. We need to get a Verlander deal hoping they turn it around like he did and Bumgarner coming back towards home could do that. The cost shouldn't be crazy either.

[clvclv]

Bowman said the Braves continue to show interest in Kluber and it would cost Pache/Wright/Touki for Kluber. Whew.

And Britton is more likely than Kimbrel.

FIFY