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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

  1. #2921
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    They will sign for more than 14 million a year.
    Eovaldi just got 67.5M over four years. The market seems a bit more robust this year than last off-season.
    It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning. Senator Bob Corker

  2. #2922
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    No you can't really. Unless you're paying a huge prospect haul for Bauer or Snydergaard. Also, you are forgetting Bradley in the deal.
    This is a confusing response.

    Not sure how Bauer and Syndergaard are comparable to Zack Greinke? Or how they are 3 WAR guys.

    I think they are on dramatically higher tiers. They're both about 27 and they both have very recent 6 WAR seasons and are both under control.

    I'd be much more in favor, personally, of getting someone like those too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    They will sign for more than 14 million a year.

    You got me there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Eovaldi just got 67.5M over four years. The market seems a bit more robust this year than last off-season.
    He's 28.

  5. #2925
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    He's 28.
    2 TJs
    It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning. Senator Bob Corker

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    You got me there.

    Not trying to get anybody. But they won't fit your 14m 3 WAR pitcher narrative

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    2 TJs
    I do think that's a ridiculous deal for Eovaldi, but he throws 97.
    Last edited by Southcack77; 12-06-2018 at 12:03 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I can get J.A. Happ or Charlie Morton, projected 3 WAR guys, for significantly less than 23m for probably a two year commitment. something like 16m rather than 14m. But in the ball park.

    But in reality, I'm probably not going to be shopping in this bin at all.
    I think you'll be surprised at what Happ will command and it will most certainly be over 2 years. He's currently the best pitcher on the FA market and Eovaldi (even though he's younger) just got 4/67.5. Happ has consistently been better and more healthy than Eovaldi however.

    And Morton has 1 season (last year) with a brWAR over 2. And only 1 other season with a brWAR over 1. Before 2018, he actually had negative career brWAR. Even if you go fWAR, he only has 2 seasons over 2 WAR. Any projection system projecting 3 wins for him should be completely scrapped.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    This is a confusing response.

    Not sure how Bauer and Syndergaard are comparable to Zack Greinke? Or how they are 3 WAR guys.

    I think they are on dramatically higher tiers. They're both about 27 and they both have very recent 6 WAR seasons and are both under control.

    I'd be much more in favor, personally, of getting someone like those too.
    Youy do realize Greinke was a 4.8 brWAR last season don't you? I don't think you fully giving Greinke the credit he's due.


    That's fine if you'd rather go down that road for one of the elite pitchers. I however, would rather not pay a King's ransom in prospects.

  10. #2930
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    FG just released the ZiPs projections for the Braves:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019...tlanta-braves/

    It's mostly projections we all expect to see (4+ win seasons from Freeman, JD, Acuna and Albies), and a few comments that echo exactly what I've been saying...

    "even if no individual pitcher has better than a coin flip’s chance of being a star in 2019, the Braves’ enviable young depth can help them compensate for their lack of a true staff ace. The Braves are playing Plinko on The Price is Right, only Drew Carey gave them a hundred of those little disks. ZiPS actually projects the 11th-to-15th best starting pitchers in the organization (Max Fried, Joey Wentz, Wes Parsons, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Muller) to not be that far from league average, which is a filthy, disgusting horde of pitching to have if the projections prove true."

    As a quick reminder, the Braves used 13 different SPs last year, and 35 pitchers in total. Anyone who thinks AA won't utilize this depth of arms hasn't been paying attention. And before someone chimes in with the tired "they need a front line starter" cliche, take a look at how pitching staffs of contenders and non-contenders were put together before blabbering.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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  12. #2931
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I think you'll be surprised at what Happ will command and it will most certainly be over 2 years. He's currently the best pitcher on the FA market and Eovaldi (even though he's younger) just got 4/67.5. Happ has consistently been better and more healthy than Eovaldi however.

    And Morton has 1 season (last year) with a brWAR over 2. And only 1 other season with a brWAR over 1. Before 2018, he actually had negative career brWAR. Even if you go fWAR, he only has 2 seasons over 2 WAR. Any projection system projecting 3 wins for him should be completely scrapped.
    FG projects him at 3.1. It's funny seeing you describe back to back 3+ win season as "only has 2 seasons over 2 WAR" though haha.

    Guess you better tell them to scrap their projection system so you can get to work writing a new one. I mean, your spit balling projection system outlined in your post seems legit, so I'd suggest running with it.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 12-06-2018 at 01:00 PM.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    "Can a man still be brave if he is afraid? That is the only time a man can be brave." - G.R.R.M (Game of Thrones)

    "So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past." - F. Scott Fitzgerald (G. Gatsby)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    FG just released the ZiPs projections for the Braves:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019...tlanta-braves/

    It's mostly projections we all expect to see (4+ win seasons from Freeman, JD, Acuna and Albies), and a few comments that echo exactly what I've been saying...

    "even if no individual pitcher has better than a coin flip’s chance of being a star in 2019, the Braves’ enviable young depth can help them compensate for their lack of a true staff ace. The Braves are playing Plinko on The Price is Right, only Drew Carey gave them a hundred of those little disks. ZiPS actually projects the 11th-to-15th best starting pitchers in the organization (Max Fried, Joey Wentz, Wes Parsons, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Muller) to not be that far from league average, which is a filthy, disgusting horde of pitching to have if the projections prove true."

    As a quick reminder, the Braves used 13 different SPs last year, and 35 pitchers in total. Anyone who thinks AA won't utilize this depth of arms hasn't been paying attention. And before someone chimes in with the tired "they need a front line starter" cliche, take a look at how pitching staffs of contenders and non-contenders were put together before blabbering.
    So Coppy and Hart were correct to load the organization with pitching instead of positional prospects.

    thethe vindicated?

    Forever Fredi


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  16. #2934
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Rump View Post
    So Coppy and Hart were correct to load the organization with pitching instead of positional prospects.

    thethe vindicated?

    no, the fact that each team usually needs so many pitchers means teams shouldn't load up on good pitching. or something.
    that logic was always bad.
    "You show your bias against me with your consistently negative reaction to my brazen lies."

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRunningAgent View Post
    Its possible they think the pen is not all that bad if.....Viz returns to form. AJ improves from his rookie season. Teheran goes to the pen. Another one of the kids goes to the pen. I mean, Gohara could be nasty in the pen. Maybe pick up one more veteran on the cheap.
    I think Teheran would retire before going to the pen.

  18. #2936
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyTrain View Post
    I think Teheran would retire before going to the pen.
    i doubt that
    "You show your bias against me with your consistently negative reaction to my brazen lies."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    You're advocating making Greinke the highest paid Brave for the next three seasons to save a few prospects. That doesn't make any sense to me.

    23m is a large chunk of the payroll and you are spending it on possibly upgrading the back end of the rotation, which is the least defensible place of allocating the Braves resources right now.

    I value the next three seasons much more highly than anything that comes after them, because they are the peak contention years. For the window to continue past the point where the Braves are fairly compensating their current young players, they will have to produce more young players who give them somewhat comparable surplus value. It could happen, but I'd wouldn't say it's the most likely outcome.

    I can't justify blowing that much money on someone I don't see as having almost any chance of significantly upgrading the Braves contention chances in the short term.
    You do realize that Zack would've had the second highest WAR in the rotation last year and that both his fangraph projections are higher than even Folty for next season?

    You don't think that improves our contention chances and that he's a BOR pitcher? He'd be our #1 for crying out loud. Honestly, if we could get he and Peralta in a deal and add a pen arm, this off season would about as good as it could've been.

  20. #2938
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ronald Rump View Post
    So Coppy and Hart were correct to load the organization with pitching instead of positional prospects.

    thethe vindicated?

    Depth is great, but we aren't going to win with league average.

  21. #2939
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    Is Julio's slider good enough to come out of the pen throwing mostly it like romo?

  22. #2940
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Is Julio's slider good enough to come out of the pen throwing mostly it like romo?
    Don't think Julio knows where his fastball and changeup are going most of the time, let alone his slider.

    It's almost like Jorge Sosa.
    Forever Fredi


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