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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

  1. #2941
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Youy do realize Greinke was a 4.8 brWAR last season don't you? I don't think you fully giving Greinke the credit he's due.


    That's fine if you'd rather go down that road for one of the elite pitchers. I however, would rather not pay a King's ransom in prospects.

    Pretty sure I have to keep my metrics consistent. If I have to pick one to evaluate likely future performance I am going to go with fWAR over bWAR.

  2. #2942
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    Carrasco signs extension with the Indians

  3. #2943
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyTrain View Post
    I think Teheran would retire before going to the pen.
    Our daily dose of CT wisdom folks!
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

  4. #2944
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyTrain View Post
    Depth is great, but we aren't going to win with league average.
    Pearl of wisdom #2 of the day!!
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

  5. #2945
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    FG projects him at 3.1. It's funny seeing you describe back to back 3+ win season as "only has 2 seasons over 2 WAR" though haha.

    Guess you better tell them to scrap their projection system so you can get to work writing a new one. I mean, your spit balling projection system outlined in your post seems legit, so I'd suggest running with it.
    That's nice. Wanna bet on his WAR for 2018?

  6. #2946
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyTrain View Post
    You do realize that Zack would've had the second highest WAR in the rotation last year and that both his fangraph projections are higher than even Folty for next season?

    You don't think that improves our contention chances and that he's a BOR pitcher? He'd be our #1 for crying out loud. Honestly, if we could get he and Peralta in a deal and add a pen arm, this off season would about as good as it could've been.

    I'm just going to chalk up the apparent enthusiasm for this deal to people just thinking it is neat to address multiple perceived needs in one deal.

  7. #2947
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    That's nice. Wanna bet on his WAR for 2018?
    Sure. What's the bet?
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

  8. #2948
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Sure. What's the bet?
    Over/under 3 WAR?

  9. #2949
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Over/under 3 WAR?
    LOL, if I think 3 is a reasonable projection, why in the world would I take the over?

    Everything in your post suggests you think he will struggle to reach 2.

    Over/under of 1.5, you name the stakes. Anything higher than that means we don't disagree enough to be worth betting over.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

  10. #2950
    Anytime Now Frankie...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    FG just released the ZiPs projections for the Braves:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019...tlanta-braves/

    It's mostly projections we all expect to see (4+ win seasons from Freeman, JD, Acuna and Albies), and a few comments that echo exactly what I've been saying...

    "even if no individual pitcher has better than a coin flipís chance of being a star in 2019, the Bravesí enviable young depth can help them compensate for their lack of a true staff ace. The Braves are playing Plinko on The Price is Right, only Drew Carey gave them a hundred of those little disks. ZiPS actually projects the 11th-to-15th best starting pitchers in the organization (Max Fried, Joey Wentz, Wes Parsons, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Muller) to not be that far from league average, which is a filthy, disgusting horde of pitching to have if the projections prove true."

    As a quick reminder, the Braves used 13 different SPs last year, and 35 pitchers in total. Anyone who thinks AA won't utilize this depth of arms hasn't been paying attention. And before someone chimes in with the tired "they need a front line starter" cliche, take a look at how pitching staffs of contenders and non-contenders were put together before blabbering.
    I was told that our starting rotation would be a liability.

  11. #2951
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    Carrasco signs extension with the Indians
    and they are "increasingly motivated to move" Bauer or Kluber.
    I'm still content not pursuing any TOR arm unless the price is great.
    extension is for 3 years, 37.5M, btw. seems cheap.
    "You show your bias against me with your consistently negative reaction to my brazen lies."

  12. #2952
    It's OVER 5,000! UNCBlue012's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    and they are "increasingly motivated to move" Bauer or Kluber.
    I'm still content not pursuing any TOR arm unless the price is great.
    extension is for 3 years, 37.5M, btw. seems cheap.
    I would love to get Kluber or Bauer, but I'm fairly confident the Yankees or Phillies will grab one of the two first.
    "Can a man still be brave if he is afraid? That is the only time a man can be brave." - G.R.R.M (Game of Thrones)

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  13. #2953
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I'm just going to chalk up the apparent enthusiasm for this deal to people just thinking it is neat to address multiple perceived needs in one deal.
    I like Peralta to beat his WAR projection (2.8, 3.8 last year) next year as it seems he made some sort of adjustment to increase his power (launch angle perhaps?) and Zack instantly becomes our #1 starter. That's a win/win if you ask me. We fill our empty OF spot with a 30 homer guy who should beat 3 WAR next year and get a aging starter on a bad contract who still is quite good (3-4 WAR). That said, I'm not really advocating for this deal to happen.
    Last edited by CrazyTrain; 12-06-2018 at 03:30 PM.

  14. #2954
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    Quote Originally Posted by UNCBlue012 View Post
    I would love to get Kluber or Bauer, but I'm fairly confident the Yankees or Phillies will grab one of the two first.
    the phillies probably don't have enough to trade for either one of them
    "You show your bias against me with your consistently negative reaction to my brazen lies."

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    I was told that our starting rotation would be a liability.
    I clarified my statement to say that our rotation is a liability compared to other playoff teams, which is far from incorrect. Maybe you see a bunch of "not that far from league average" starters leading us to a ring, but I don't... at least not this year or in the next 2-3.

  16. #2956
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    They certainly can't beat our best offer if AA elects to pay it

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    Boras' Client zbhargrove's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyTrain View Post
    I like Peralta to beat his WAR projection (2.8, 3.8 last year) next year as it seems he made some sort of adjustment to increase his power (launch angle perhaps?) and Zack instantly becomes our #1 starter. That's a win/win if you ask me. We fill our empty OF spot with a 30 homer guy who should beat 3 WAR next year and get a aging starter on a bad contract who still is quite good (3-4 WAR).
    Well he can't hit lefties, that's a bit of a problem

  18. #2958
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    The Braves should trade 5+ years of playoff baseball to make one huge push the next 1-2 seasons.

    Seems like a great idea!

  19. #2959
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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Well he can't hit lefties, that's a bit of a problem
    Which wouldnít be a huge problem if Duvall wasnít so bad last year he was left off the playoff roster in favor of Lane AAAA Adams.

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    Itís pretty comical seeing folks suggest trading for Greinke act as if the prospects required to make the DBacks keep the ~$60M required for the Braves to afford him are any different than the prospects required for a guy like Bauer or Kluber.

    A trade for Peralta and Greinke plus enough cash to make the Braves payroll work will require ~$70M in prospect capital....and the Braves are still paying the duo $20M in 2019.

    There has to be better value out there.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 12-06-2018 at 03:31 PM.

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