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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Wait. So puig is not a 2 war player because last 4 years. Which he was mostly hurt. But gray is a 3 war pitcher when healthy which he hasnt been the last four years. Narrative much?
    Also didn't realize averaging 400+ at bats a year qualified as mostly hurt.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    Gray “could” be better than Julio, but that’s not a given.

    Honestly I’d rather see Fried, Soroka, Touki, Gohora, Wilson or Wright.

    Unless we get a top of the rotation guy, Let the young guys pitch. Anything else feels like a lateral move.
    Gray's recent performance and durability issues are concerning. Of course, he's been pitching in the AL so there's a little helium to the hitters' stats. But the Yanks are asking a lot for him. I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't want to part for any of our top ten prospects for him and I would be hard pressed to give the Yankees anything other than a couple of lottery tickets. For all the crap tossed Teheran's way (some of it deserved), he's not costing us a boatload and he can always be replaced from within.

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    Quote Originally Posted by UNCBlue012 View Post
    This offseason is getting boring, come on AA! LOL
    Hasn't had time for his flight to get into town after his meeting with the Liberty folks. The extra $20 million they gave him is a little heavy, so the plane's a little slow.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Puig is a 1-2 WAR player... he's not that good and he's a punk
    how's he a punk?

    he posted a 2.7 war last year in 125 games

    i'm not saying he's great or the best player in the game but if it didn't take much to get him for his last year of his deal, i would take him
    Last edited by goldfly; 12-14-2018 at 12:23 PM.
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    Folks are letting their personal biases for/against certain players color their projections. Comments about Puig ruining Albies/Acuna/Camargo are pretty silly, as if those guys are so mentally fragile they are unable to dismiss Puig's antics and will blindly be influenced by their fellow Latin player. These are professional athletes, and there are plenty of good influences in the clubhouse to handle this type of thing. Puig's perceived issues didn't stop the Dodgers from winning while he was there. In fact, his ~.870 OPS the last 2 postseasons was probably pretty nice to have.

    Given 150+ IP and a regression of his BABIP closer to his career and/or league average marks, Gray is easily projected to be a 2-3 win pitcher...just like all the Braves young starters are.

    Given ~500 PAs and some intelligently planned days off, Puig projects as an .800-.850 OPS guy with acceptable OF defense who would slot in pretty well behind Freeman in the lineup.

    Both guys carry limited downside risk due to being controlled for 1 more year, and both guys are "change of scenery" candidates their current teams would rather unload. They both represent exactly the type of low risk short term value plays we've seen AA prefer lately, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see either (or both) in Atlanta in 2019.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 12-14-2018 at 12:28 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Because Porcello is a 2-3 WAR pitcher who had one outlier 5 WAR year. Gio is a 1-2 WAR pitcher. Gray has been a 3+ WAR pitcher when healthy and not pitching at Yankee stadium... it's pretty clear if you actually look at the stats
    And Gray hasn't had a 3 win season since 2014. Porcello is currently coming off a 3 win season. It's clear you are mistaken. Gio has been a consistent 2-3 win pitcher his over his career as well.

    What we know about Gray is that he's either been injured or not very good for the last 3 years. Even if he were to rebound in 2019, it's unlikely he'd be much (if any) better than Porcello, and likely not significantly better than Gio.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Wait. So puig is not a 2 war player because last 4 years. Which he was mostly hurt. But gray is a 3 war pitcher when healthy which he hasnt been the last four years. Narrative much?
    Nail meet head.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    And Gray hasn't had a 3 win season since 2014. Porcello is currently coming off a 3 win season. It's clear you are mistaken. Gio has been a consistent 2-3 win pitcher his over his career as well.

    What we know about Gray is that he's either been injured or not very good for the last 3 years. Even if he were to rebound in 2019, it's unlikely he'd be much (if any) better than Porcello, and likely not significantly better than Gio.
    Gray: 3.8 fWAR in 2015. 2.8 fWAR in 2017. Porcello 2.8 fWAR in 2018.

    Interesting that 2.8 is considered 3 WAR for Porcello but not Gray.

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    Quote Originally Posted by goldfly View Post
    how's he a punk?

    he posted a 2.7 war last year in 125 games

    i'm not saying he's great or the best player in the game but if it didn't take much to get him for his last year of his deal, i would take him
    He posted a 1.8 WAR last year dude

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Gray: 3.8 fWAR in 2015. 2.8 fWAR in 2017. Porcello 2.8 fWAR in 2018.

    Interesting that 2.8 is considered 3 WAR for Porcello but not Gray.
    Not to mention he was well on the way to easily surpassing 3 WAR when he was traded to the Yankees... you know the place where he struggled at home and pitched the same as before every where else? Look I don't want to pay much for him but he could be a good buy low option and he's not the scrub most are making him out to be. He's certainly better than Porcello Gio

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Gray: 3.8 fWAR in 2015. 2.8 fWAR in 2017. Porcello 2.8 fWAR in 2018.

    Interesting that 2.8 is considered 3 WAR for Porcello but not Gray.
    3.3 bWAR. But whatever. Use fWAR if you prefer. Gray has had 2 WAR or less 2 of the last 3 seasons and is coming off a pretty forgettable season. Conversely, Porcello has averaged roughly 3 WAR since 2011 and is coming off a 2.7 WAR season. I'm fine with calling them both 3 WAR pitchers. But Gray is not a "much better pitcher" than Porcello.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Nail meet head.
    Since you can't read stats very well, this really hurts me

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Not to mention he was well on the way to easily surpassing 3 WAR when he was traded to the Yankees... you know the place where he struggled at home and pitched the same as before every where else? Look I don't want to pay much for him but he could be a good buy low option and he's not the scrub most are making him out to be. He's certainly better than Porcello Gio
    The point is not to compare Gray to those other pitchers, but to compare him to how well our internal options would perform.

    If Gray is the best we can do in the trade market, I'd just as soon roll with some of the youngsters with upside and see how they do. If we can get Gray in a deal that is nearly revenue neutral and doesn't deplete prospect capital that could go towards filling more pressing needs, I'm fine with it. But I don't see the Yankees accepting such an offer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    3.3 bWAR. But whatever. Use fWAR if you prefer. Gray has had 2 WAR or less 2 of the last 3 seasons and is coming off a pretty forgettable season. Conversely, Porcello has averaged roughly 3 WAR since 2011 and is coming off a 2.7 WAR season. I'm fine with calling them both 3 WAR pitchers. But Gray is not a "much better pitcher" than Porcello.
    Keep ignoring the fact that one of those years was because of injury and one was obviously influenced by his home stadium when his velocity was still in the mid 90s and his away stats/peripherals/rates were completely in line with/better than his good seasons. I'm sure that's just a coincidence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    The point is not to compare Gray to those other pitchers, but to compare him to how well our internal options would perform.

    If Gray is the best we can do in the trade market, I'd just as soon roll with some of the youngsters with upside and see how they do. If we can get Gray in a deal that is nearly revenue neutral and doesn't deplete prospect capital that could go towards filling more pressing needs, I'm fine with it. But I don't see the Yankees accepting such an offer.
    Actually the point was comparing them since the post I replied to mentioned those pitchers would be better options.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    The point is not to compare Gray to those other pitchers, but to compare him to how well our internal options would perform.

    If Gray is the best we can do in the trade market, I'd just as soon roll with some of the youngsters with upside and see how they do. If we can get Gray in a deal that is nearly revenue neutral and doesn't deplete prospect capital that could go towards filling more pressing needs, I'm fine with it. But I don't see the Yankees accepting such an offer.
    And yes I've never advocated giving up of anything of value for him. So we can all stop acting like I want to give the farm for him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Gray: 3.8 fWAR in 2015. 2.8 fWAR in 2017. Porcello 2.8 fWAR in 2018.

    Interesting that 2.8 is considered 3 WAR for Porcello but not Gray.
    An interesting question concerning that...

    Aren't all these metrics there to help you keep from paying 3 win value for someone who hasn't been a 3 win player in years?

    Whatever the reason, Gray hasn't performed at that level in quite some time. Sure he's a buy-low candidate who may bounce back a bit. Thing is, we've already got Gausman, Newcomb, Julio, Touki, Soroka, Gohara, Fried, and Wright who have just as much chance of being that 3 win Pitcher as Gray does.

    Unless trading for Gray somehow gets you Frazier WITHOUT overpaying for either, I'll pass personally. As many have said several times, there's not much reason to go out and get what you already have - if Gray was a legit TOR option things might be different, but he's not. Given his health history, I see very little reason to gamble that he'll get through 2019 more healthy or perform better than Soroka or several others.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    Gray's recent performance and durability issues are concerning. Of course, he's been pitching in the AL so there's a little helium to the hitters' stats. But the Yanks are asking a lot for him. I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't want to part for any of our top ten prospects for him and I would be hard pressed to give the Yankees anything other than a couple of lottery tickets. For all the crap tossed Teheran's way (some of it deserved), he's not costing us a boatload and he can always be replaced from within.
    He only had one year with injury concerns and suddenly he's not durable?

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    An interesting question concerning that...

    Aren't all these metrics there to help you keep from paying 3 win value for someone who hasn't been one in years?

    Whatever the reason, Gray hasn't performed at that level in quite some time. Sure he's a buy-low candidate who may bounce back a bit. Thing is, we've already got Gausman, Newcomb, Julio, Touki, Soroka, Gohara, Fried, and Wright who have just as much chance of being that 3 win Pitcher as Gray does.

    Unless trading for Gray somehow gets you Frazier WITHOUT overpaying for either, I'll pass personally. As many have said several times, there's not much reason to go out and get what you already have - if Gray was a legit TOR option things might be different, but he's not. Given his health history, I see very little reason to gamble that he'll get through 2019 more healthy or perform better than Soroka or several others.
    He hasn't? In 2017 he was a 3 WAR pitcher and last year he was the same pitcher when not at Yankee stadium...

    Lol and the health thing again... one year

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Folks are letting their personal biases for/against certain players color their projections. Comments about Puig ruining Albies/Acuna/Camargo are pretty silly, as if those guys are so mentally fragile they are unable to dismiss Puig's antics and will blindly be influenced by their fellow Latin player. These are professional athletes, and there are plenty of good influences in the clubhouse to handle this type of thing. Puig's perceived issues didn't stop the Dodgers from winning while he was there. In fact, his ~.870 OPS the last 2 postseasons was probably pretty nice to have.

    Given 150+ IP and a regression of his BABIP closer to his career and/or league average marks, Gray is easily projected to be a 2-3 win pitcher...just like all the Braves young starters are.

    Given ~500 PAs and some intelligently planned days off, Puig projects as an .800-.850 OPS guy with acceptable OF defense who would slot in pretty well behind Freeman in the lineup.

    Both guys carry limited downside risk due to being controlled for 1 more year, and both guys are "change of scenery" candidates their current teams would rather unload. They both represent exactly the type of low risk short term value plays we've seen AA prefer lately, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see either (or both) in Atlanta in 2019.
    I'd be excited about watching both next year if we could get them really cheap but there are some here really over valuing Puig and under valuing Gray.

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