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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    So hypothetically there are a set of prices where Muk is the best choice.
    best *value* choice, maybe. he is almost definitely not the best choice overall however.
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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    That's way too much for Gallo... however, if we could pick up him reasonable and JTR plus a Gray(also trading JT)... I'd be happy there
    Is it too much for Gallo? He's projected for 3.3 fWAR next year and is controlled cheaply for 4 years. He's actually projected to be better than Mitch Haniger next year and is controlled for the same amount of time. Even if you just project him out for 12 WAR over the next 4 years, that's gonna end up being ~80 million in surplus value that we have to cover. We could probably do that with just Wright and Gohara or a package like Wright, Wentz, and Wilson. But he is gonna be pretty expensive, and I think I'd be willing to pay that for him.

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    we also have to factor in a roster spot for BILOTY Ryan Flaherty.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    best *value* choice, maybe. he is almost definitely not the best choice overall however.
    Well isn't value considered when determining best choice?

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    I accidentally attributed his Steamer BABIP for 2019 as his career since they are right next to each other... doesn't matter though... the gap is still huge. Is his production really that much below recent season norms though? 1.4, 1.2, 0.5 those the 3 seasons of fWAR he put up before last year... guess you don't want to address that 3 year trend of mediocrity and decline, huh?
    It's difficult to rely upon it as a reliable trend of decline when the next season is 2.6 WAR.

    I think the outlier in these numbers and his career in general is really the .5 WAR season.

    Sure, I suppose the 1-1.5 WAR range is the most likely result. I don't see that as disastrous, particularly if he his cheap with no club commitment. I think it's possible he does something similar to last season.

    I'd especially like to see him get more rest if he is returned given his second half swoon has been exceptionally bad, far below his career norms, each of the last two years. Even with peripherals remaining constant.

    I'd actually prefer that the Braves bring in someone who can get a couple of starts of week in his place with him, though that certainly could be Camargo. Camargo in that role is certainly worth looking at as he's someone that very easily could still be getting better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Well isn't value considered when determining best choice?
    You could argue it's worth overpaying for a position to increase production there in a contention window when you have so many other positions accounted for. But the Braves aren't really putting out "all-in" vibes right now. And AA has pretty consistently proven to be a bargain bin shopper, with possible exception of Donaldson. But even that is a pretty frugal acquisition. You acquired him below his projected production with no long term commitment. Which happens to fit the Braves long term needs perfectly.

    I would have done Brantley, personally.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Well isn't value considered when determining best choice?
    not necessarily. i'm saying that yeah, if markakis signs one year for, say, $6 million, it may be the best value. but he still may not be the best choice.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    not necessarily. i'm saying that yeah, if markakis signs one year for, say, $6 million, it may be the best value. but he still may not be the best choice.

    you obviously have to fill in context for that statement.

    I would prefer Brantley at 2/32 over 1/6 for Markakis. But tell me how you spent the 10 million you saved.

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    10 yr, $185 million Extension zbhargrove's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    It's difficult to rely upon it as a reliable trend of decline when the next season is 2.6 WAR.

    I think the outlier in these numbers and his career in general is really the .5 WAR season.

    Sure, I suppose the 1-1.5 WAR range is the most likely result. I don't see that as disastrous, particularly if he his cheap with no club commitment. I think it's possible he does something similar to last season.

    I'd especially like to see him get more rest if he is returned given his second half swoon has been exceptionally bad, far below his career norms, each of the last two years. Even with peripherals remaining constant.

    I'd actually prefer that the Braves bring in someone who can get a couple of starts of week in his place with him, though that certainly could be Camargo. Camargo in that role is certainly worth looking at as he's someone that very easily could still be getting better.
    The next season was a 2.6... buoyed by a half putting up HR/FB rate and BABIP way outside his career norms, especially recently.... again, which of these is not like the other? Its not rocket science... but sure less discount the yearly trend but not discount one "out of his mind" half... makes sense. If he didn't have that one half, the yearly trend would look exactly the same.
    Last edited by zbhargrove; 12-26-2018 at 01:37 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Is it too much for Gallo? He's projected for 3.3 fWAR next year and is controlled cheaply for 4 years. He's actually projected to be better than Mitch Haniger next year and is controlled for the same amount of time. Even if you just project him out for 12 WAR over the next 4 years, that's gonna end up being ~80 million in surplus value that we have to cover. We could probably do that with just Wright and Gohara or a package like Wright, Wentz, and Wilson. But he is gonna be pretty expensive, and I think I'd be willing to pay that for him.
    I get it... however, this is one case I'm not sure I'd be buying the projections... Haniger has 2 years of reliable data and so does Gallo at this point. Gallo has never put up more then 2.8 fWAR with two years of 500+ PA (yet all the sudden 3.6/3.3 projections?) and Haniger has put up a 2.5 fWAR with 410 PA and 4.6 with 683 PA... yet he's only being projected for 3 fWAR.... so projections are saying Gallo will do something he's never done with no trends suggesting its moving that way... and they are also saying Haniger is going regress significantly even though there's absolutely zero in the stats suggesting his 2 consistent years were flukes?

    Don't get me wrong... I wasn't a fan of the Gallo idea until, like you, I started looking closer. I just think Wright plus another guy who has had success in MLB would could end up being an ace in Gohara is a bit steep. I'm also higher on Gohara than most because I think he was a 20 year old kid depressed last year losing his Dad and almost his Mom...
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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    The next season was a 2.6... buoyed by a half putting up HR/FB rate and BABIP way outside his career norms, especially recently.... again, which of these is not like the other? Its not rocket science... but sure less discount the yearly trend but not discount one "out of his mind" half... makes sense. If he didn't have that one half, the yearly trend would look exactly the same.

    And his second half was well below his career norms in both categories. His HR/FB and BABIP for full season settled just about exactly on his career rates.

    You would prefer to break his season down into two smaller sample sizes that aren't reflective of career norms. You dismiss one four month sample as unrepeatable because of luck factors and take the two month sample at face value.

    I think the likely result in 2019 is that he doesn't have the one red hot month. With more rest his August/Sept might not be quite as dismal as that is starting to look like an age factor.

    But I've said a million times, he's not my first choice. It's just not as bad as an option as I think you are making it out to be.
    Last edited by Southcack77; 12-26-2018 at 01:56 PM.

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    It's old fashioned maybe, but I want no part of someone who reliably strikes out 35% of the time and gets on base less than 1/3 of the time.

    The idea of paying through the nose for that in prospects makes me want to throw up a bit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    But I've said a million times, he's not my first choice. It's just not as bad as an option as I think you are making it out to be.
    i think if the braves go into the season with a guy projected for, say, 1.2 WAR in LF and no other significant upgrades, it's a pretty terrible option. i think that should make us feel pretty bad.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    It's old fashioned maybe, but I want no part of someone who reliably strikes out 35% of the time and gets on base less than 1/3 of the time.

    The idea of paying through the nose for that in prospects makes me want to throw up a bit.
    Cost is obviously the biggest determinant, but it looks a hellofalot more appealing at a reasonable cost than employing Markakis for another year.
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    If it takes half of that package to get Gallo then it would be a mistake. We have seen guys who are DH/1b with one tool get cut all the time. Why the hell would we give actual assets up for it. It is not the 90s. 40 homers and 250 Ks is not the player I want to commit a ****load of resources too.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i think if the braves go into the season with a guy projected for, say, 1.2 WAR in LF and no other significant upgrades, it's a pretty terrible option. i think that should make us feel pretty bad.
    I won't feel that bad. Donaldson is a big acquisition.

    I think Camargo only got .5 to 1 win out of his defense at 3B. If he plays a neutral LF, that's another potential 2.5 Win option with room to improve offensively.

    I think they could easily survive Markakis coming back.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    Cost is obviously the biggest determinant, but it looks a hellofalot more appealing at a reasonable cost than employing Markakis for another year.
    I would be accepting of gallo. But as you stated. Cost is the key. No thanks to wright and Gohara.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    Cost is obviously the biggest determinant, but it looks a hellofalot more appealing at a reasonable cost than employing Markakis for another year.
    I'd probably prefer bringing Markakis back at 6m then giving up anything of note for Joey Gallo.

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    10 yr, $185 million Extension zbhargrove's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    And his second half was well below his career norms in both categories. His HR/FB and BABIP for full season settled just about exactly on his career rates.

    You would prefer to break his season down into two smaller sample sizes that aren't reflective of career norms. You dismiss one four month sample as unrepeatable because of luck factors and take the two month sample at face value.

    I think the likely result in 2019 is that he doesn't have the one red hot month. With more rest his August/Sept might not be quite as dismal as that is starting to look like an age factor.

    But I've said a million times, he's not my first choice. It's just not as bad as an option as I think you are making it out to be.
    His HR/FB percentage every year since 2013:

    5.7 - 2013
    7.3 - 2014
    2.1 - 2015
    7.3 - 2016
    5.6 - 2017
    8.4 - 2018

    Is 5.7% (second half of last year) really out of the norm in his past 6 years (average of 6%)? Could have fooled me
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I would be accepting of gallo. But as you stated. Cost is the key. No thanks to wright and Gohara.
    It would almost certainly cost at least one player of that caliber and the Rangers are looking for pitching. I think people are underestimating the value that 4 years of a 3 win player carries.

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