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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

  1. #5161
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Sure they all count, but when you have a 3-4 month sample against a 3 and a half year sample, I think its fair to question whether or not that should represent an outlier. Given Markakis' age and track record, I think that is the correct conclusion.
    See prior posts.

    I won’t argue with wisdom of projecting 1-1.5 win.

    Picking his last two months and saying, “aha, I was right along, the pattern fits exactly” is not good analysis.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    See prior posts.

    I won’t argue with wisdom of projecting 1-1.5 win.

    Picking his last two months and saying, “aha, I was right along, the pattern fits exactly” is not good analysis.
    I would bring Neck back at $11m rather than give up anything of value for Gallo any day of the week and twice on Sunday. And i’d also be pissed to have Neck back because that means something terrible has happened and we checked way down on the upgrades
    " The 2018 Braves give fans reason to believe again." - Bowman

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    archaic style of thinking...dems fightin words

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    Look at Gallos home vs away splits.

    6 less home runs on the road
    .186 avg on the road vs .227 avg at home
    .285 OBP on the road
    .716 OPS on the road vs .906 at home

    I see Dan Uggla 2.0 with a few more homeruns and a little better defense....
    " The 2018 Braves give fans reason to believe again." - Bowman

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    Look at Gallos home vs away splits.

    6 less home runs on the road
    .186 avg on the road vs .227 avg at home
    .285 OBP on the road
    .716 OPS on the road vs .906 at home

    I see Dan Uggla 2.0 with a few more homeruns and a little better defense....
    4 years of uggla-like production on the cheap? where do i sign
    "You show your bias against me with your consistently negative reaction to my brazen lies."

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    It's OVER 5,000! msstate7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    4 years of uggla-like production on the cheap? where do i sign
    What's cheap? What prospects we talking?

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Well that proposed package was ludicrous... and Gallo will be much more than 5-10 homers... he's hit 40 two years in a row. Pederson has never hit more than 26

    Do you realize how special a ~.300 ISO is in the majors? And he's only 25 and has only experienced one organizational staff... even a tiny tweak could change him tremendously.

    Also, he's basically the same solid player against lefties or righties... Joc couldn't hit a lefty if his life depended on it...
    His ISO is also inflated by his home park, where he has .875 OPS and 50 homers compared to a .753 OPS and 38 homers away in roughly the same amount of games. Even still, Joc Pederson had a .273 ISO last season whilst playing half his games in one of the best pitchers parks in the game.

    So again, when adjusting for park and league, it's likely a 5-10 homer difference. Pederson also is better defensively and better on the basepaths. He does have issues hitting lefties, but Gallo isn't exactly amazing either. And with 350 career at bats against lefties, we run into sample size issues as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    Look at Gallos home vs away splits.

    6 less home runs on the road
    .186 avg on the road vs .227 avg at home
    .285 OBP on the road
    .716 OPS on the road vs .906 at home

    I see Dan Uggla 2.0 with a few more homeruns and a little better defense....
    If you dig a bit deeper into his career splits, the gaps shrink to .875/.753. If you dig deeper than that, you'll see that he has an .820 OPS or higher against RHP both home and away. Against LHP, its pretty interesting. He MURDERS LHP at home to the tune of a .998 OPS, but for some reason struggles against LHP on the road with a .561 OPS. That is what brings down his overall OPS away from Arlington.

    So, are there any explanatory factors? Well, he only has 165 Plate Appearances against LHP away from Arlington in his career, so we are dealing with a pretty small sample size. But the real thing that catches your eye is that his K% goes up by almost 10 points while his BB% goes down by about 6 points in those situations and that probably accounts for a large % of the split difference. So it seems like the screwiness of small sample sizing against LHP away from home probably has a lot to do with the dramatic home/road splits. Unless there is some reason to believe that being on the road can cause your K% and your BB% to swing that dramatically. I haven't seen any evidence that would be the case.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    His ISO is also inflated by his home park, where he has .875 OPS and 50 homers compared to a .753 OPS and 38 homers away in roughly the same amount of games. Even still, Joc Pederson had a .273 ISO last season whilst playing half his games in one of the best pitchers parks in the game.

    So again, when adjusting for park and league, it's likely a 5-10 homer difference. Pederson also is better defensively and better on the basepaths. He does have issues hitting lefties, but Gallo isn't exactly amazing either. And with 350 career at bats against lefties, we run into sample size issues as well.
    See my post above. An unexplained 10 point spike in K% and 6 point downturn in BB% over 165 plate appearances can do screwy things to your numbers. Maybe I could be convinced that there is something other than sample size that would cause such dramatic shifts, but right now I'm skeptical of him being a guy that will maintain a .561 OPS against LHP in games away from Arlington. Other than them predicting a rise in BABIP, I bet that has a lot to do with Fangraphs predicting an increase in production from him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    What's cheap? What prospects we talking?
    If it were for the package that I first mentioned, it would give me pause. It seems about right from a value standpoint, though.

    If we could get him for Newcomb or for a package like Newcomb, Wilson, and some random 40 FV then I'd do it in a heartbeat. That'd probably be our cheapest path to acquiring a young 3 win outfielder with multiple years of control.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    See my post above. An unexplained 10 point spike in K% and 6 point downturn in BB% over 165 plate appearances can do screwy things to your numbers. Maybe I could be convinced that there is something other than sample size that would cause such dramatic shifts, but right now I'm skeptical of him being a guy that will maintain a .561 OPS against LHP in games away from Arlington. Other than them predicting a rise in BABIP, I bet that has a lot to do with Fangraphs predicting an increase in production from him.
    Coversely, I could argue the same as to why his home numbers are heavily skewed in the opposite direction. He absolutely benefits from hitting in Arlington. I'm way more skeptical of a left handed hitter with a poor hit tool and a K rate over 35% being able to maintain a .900+ OPS against left handed pitching at home, than him struggling against lefties away from home.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    If it were for the package that I first mentioned, it would give me pause. It seems about right from a value standpoint, though.

    If we could get him for Newcomb or for a package like Newcomb, Wilson, and some random 40 FV then I'd do it in a heartbeat. That'd probably be our cheapest path to acquiring a young 3 win outfielder with multiple years of control.
    Pederson, Rosario, Keppler, and Peralta each have multiple years of control and are all 3 WAR caliber players. Aside from Rosario, all should be cheaper than your proposed offers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    His ISO is also inflated by his home park, where he has .875 OPS and 50 homers compared to a .753 OPS and 38 homers away in roughly the same amount of games. Even still, Joc Pederson had a .273 ISO last season whilst playing half his games in one of the best pitchers parks in the game.

    So again, when adjusting for park and league, it's likely a 5-10 homer difference. Pederson also is better defensively and better on the basepaths. He does have issues hitting lefties, but Gallo isn't exactly amazing either. And with 350 career at bats against lefties, we run into sample size issues as well.
    Bored, so I'll play:

    Get them both, trade Inciarte, play Acuna in RF, keep Pache and Waters so in a couple of years one of them takes over CF (ideally). Use Inciarte to bring back prospects. Trade for Gray and Frazier from Yankees.

    Teheran & Bryse Wilson for Pedersen & Homer Bailey (assumes Dodgers get Harper and want to move payroll)
    Newcomb, Fried & Cruz for Gallo & Mike Minor
    Gohara, Allard & Wentz for Gray & Frazier (assumes NY signs Machado and wants to move Gray)
    Inciarte, Jenista to Cleveland for Kipnis, Nolan Jones and Ethan Hankins

    Moves result in Braves net add of ~$25M in payroll
    End up with:

    RF Acuna
    2B Albies
    1B Freeman
    3B Donaldson
    LF Gallo
    CF Pedersen
    SS Swanson
    C McCann

    Bench: C Flowers, Util Camargo, Util Culberson, Util Kipnis, OF Frazier

    SP: Folty, Gausman, Gray, Minor, Bailey/Soroka
    RP: Viz, Minter, O'Day, Venters, Biddle, Winkler, Carle/Sobotka

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Pederson, Rosario, Keppler, and Peralta each have multiple years of control and are all 3 WAR caliber players. Aside from Rosario, all should be cheaper than your proposed offers.
    Yeah, I should have said 3+ years of control. If we are looking to solve the OF long term, he would be one of the better options. Kepler and his 3 years of control would definitely be cheaper though. I forgot about him.

    Its kinda funny with Rosario. I was a big advocate for him early on, but after digging in to his numbers I've soured on him considerable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Coversely, I could argue the same as to why his home numbers are heavily skewed in the opposite direction. He absolutely benefits from hitting in Arlington. I'm way more skeptical of a left handed hitter with a poor hit tool and a K rate over 35% being able to maintain a .900+ OPS against left handed pitching at home, than him struggling against lefties away from home.
    That's true, and I wouldn't expect him to maintain that high of an OPS against LHP in Arlington. However, his K% and his BB% are relatively in line with his career norms vs. RHP. So I trust that he would maintain an .800+ OPS in that scenario more than I believe he'll maintain a 46 point K% and an 8 point BB% away from Arlington. To my knowledge, there should be no meaningful reason for those numbers to have such extreme home and away splits.

  17. #5176
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    I think since we added Donaldson, AA is. It “as” worried about upgrading RF abs could easily go with a platoon.

    If we do sign/trade for someone...it probably won’t be anyone we’be talked about lol.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    There is no world where it makes sense to dismiss 60% of his season to embrace the last two months as the true representative sample.

    You play games to protect your biases.

    All the numbers count. Not just the ones that fit your frame.
    It's called a small sample size. 4 months out of 4 years is a small sample.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post

    With Gallo I see him striking out too much ending a rally with a runner on 2nd or 3rd.
    As opposed to hitting a pop up or a weak comebacker to the pitcher. Even with all the strikeouts in the league still gets a runner home from 3rd with less than 2 outs 50% of the time. Which is what it's always been. Contact just for the sake of contact is vastly overrated when it comes to scoring runs.
    Last edited by thewupk; 12-26-2018 at 11:50 PM.

  20. #5179
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    Yup only 2 months... plus oh just 3 years of obvious trends.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    See prior posts.

    I won’t argue with wisdom of projecting 1-1.5 win.

    Picking his last two months and saying, “aha, I was right along, the pattern fits exactly” is not good analysis.
    So where do you think his wrc+ ends up next year

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