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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i pose this question to you. how does a 34 year old suddenly get better? not much changed in his overall hitting profile. so what magically got better? was it the first month of 8.7% Ks and ~15% BBs that held him up? where do you see that he improved to drop his k rate by 5% after it had steadily inclined for 4 years straight? betting on that being re-found skill over a fluke is how bad teams are run.

    he was for a fact in steady decline. makes sense for a player his age. so what changed other than some flukey months? can you cite anything?

    His K and BB rate was consistent across 700 plate appearances and was not the result of an anomalous few weeks. I'm not sure it's really on me to explain how that large and consistent sample wasn't a fluke.

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    Joey Gallo, Dan Uggla, advanced stats, you are an idiot if you don’t bow down to advanced stats, and that awesome commercial from years ago.

    That sums up the last two days?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i pose this question to you. how does a 34 year old suddenly get better? not much changed in his overall hitting profile. so what magically got better? was it the first month of 8.7% Ks and ~15% BBs that held him up? where do you see that he improved to drop his k rate by 5% after it had steadily inclined for 4 years straight? betting on that being re-found skill over a fluke is how bad teams are run.

    he was for a fact in steady decline. makes sense for a player his age. so what changed other than some flukey months? can you cite anything?
    Flaherty

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    Just to chime in on the Great Muk Debate:

    1) There are late bloomers and late career resurgences in baseball. Some are one-season things. Others last longer.

    2) The improvement in Muk's strikeout rate last year has a good chance of being mostly sustained in 2019.

    3) The uptick in power was relatively small (I'm talking about the full-season data) and is less likely to be sustained.

    4) Muk did make an adjustment, trying to meet the ball earlier. When results follow from an identifiable adjustment (like Anibal and the cutter), the chances of sustaining improved results are better.

    5) It really doesn't make sense to divide up Muk's season into two halves. The full-season data tell us more than focusing on either half.

    6) Bottom line. Muk's most reasonable projection for 2019 is about 1.5 WAR. If we can get him for less than 10M on a one-year deal, it would be a decent value play.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    6) Bottom line. Muk's most reasonable projection for 2019 is about 1.5 WAR. If we can get him for less than 10M on a one-year deal, it would be a decent value play.
    this is the whole thing tho. if we only bigly upgrade 3B and bench without anything else big, adding markakis just because he's good value is, IMO, a bad play for a team that can compete. he will be right around 1.5 WAR, barely above average, and it could hurt.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    this is the whole thing tho. if we only bigly upgrade 3B and bench without anything else big, adding markakis just because he's good value is, IMO, a bad play for a team that can compete. he will be right around 1.5 WAR, barely above average, and it could hurt.
    I understand this point. It is a valid one.

    But there is another equally relevant point. Which is that AA has been making moves that preserve financial flexibility. Donaldson on a one-year deal. Ditto McCann.

    I think if we focus on a bit more than the 2019 season, Muk on a one-year deal makes a bit of sense. We avoid giving up any prospect capital. The contract comes off the books after one year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I understand this point. It is a valid one.

    But there is another equally relevant point. Which is that AA has been making moves that preserve financial flexibility. Donaldson on a one-year deal. Ditto McCann.

    I think if we focus on a bit more than the 2019 season, Muk on a one-year deal makes a bit of sense. We avoid giving up any prospect capital. The contract comes off the books after one year.
    All of this debate hinges on one very unknown thing. Currently, will Marky take a 1 year deal at under $10M? Even though Streamer projects him at 1.1 War, does he think he his better? Does he know this may be his last contract and wants multi-years? Does he want to go back to Baltimore?

    We always assume AA either did not want them or did not try to get every FA. They have to be willing to say yes also.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesguy View Post
    All of this debate hinges on one very unknown thing. Currently, will Marky take a 1 year deal at under $10M? Even though Streamer projects him at 1.1 War, does he think he his better? Does he know this may be his last contract and wants multi-years? Does he want to go back to Baltimore?

    We always assume AA either did not want them or did not try to get every FA. They have to be willing to say yes also.
    It appears AA had active interest in Brantley but not McCutchen. The price got too high for Brantley and maybe he preferred Houston for non-financial reasons.

    There are alternatives to Muk that are very similar in terms of projected production and probably cost under 10M. So there is no need for us to go beyond that.
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    So a bunch of nerds say one thing about Markakis so he shouldn’t even play anymore because they know everything?

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    So a bunch of nerds say one thing about Markakis so he shouldn’t even play anymore because they know everything?
    Muk is willing to do battle with the nerds. He don't scare so easy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    So a bunch of nerds say one thing about Markakis so he shouldn’t even play anymore because they know everything?
    He can play. Just shouldn't be starting in the OF for a contending team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesguy View Post
    All of this debate hinges on one very unknown thing. Currently, will Marky take a 1 year deal at under $10M? Even though Streamer projects him at 1.1 War, does he think he his better? Does he know this may be his last contract and wants multi-years? Does he want to go back to Baltimore?

    We always assume AA either did not want them or did not try to get every FA. They have to be willing to say yes also.

    I think there is a reasonably good chance Markakis signs well under 10m. Maybe that is unrealistic, but I have a hard time finding someone that is going to pay him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I understand this point. It is a valid one.

    But there is another equally relevant point. Which is that AA has been making moves that preserve financial flexibility. Donaldson on a one-year deal. Ditto McCann.

    I think if we focus on a bit more than the 2019 season, Muk on a one-year deal makes a bit of sense. We avoid giving up any prospect capital. The contract comes off the books after one year.
    He's taking my former role in this debate, but I no longer see the going for it options as particularly likely this winter. I don't want to pay full price for the options that have been thrown around in trade.

    In the absence of better options, I pivot to maintaining max flexibility.

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    i'm gonna be pissed if we bring back Nick
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    Quote Originally Posted by goldfly View Post
    i'm gonna be pissed if we bring back Nick
    I'm okay bringing Neck back, IF it means another significant move is made. I.E. JTR or Kluber

    If the moves this season are only Donaldson, McCann, and bringing back Neck, then the Donaldson signing has a lot more risk than originally thought.
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    Quote Originally Posted by goldfly View Post
    i'm gonna be pissed if we bring back Nick
    I suspect you're likely to be pissed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I suspect you're likely to be pissed.
    ****
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    I’m still not seeing the appeal of paying the hefty ransom for Realmuto—when the Braves have a viable catching platoon, while Realmuto only has two years of arbitration remaining and is approaching age-30—especially when many of those same advocates balk at the idea of paying for a 25-year-old cOF with four years of control, massive power, solid bb-rates, and (depending on how you value/quantify framing) likely better relative defense than Realmuto.

    I’m not saying Gallo is an end-all cure-all, but I’d rather see the Braves pay the requisite price for his services, and forge ahead with the Flowers/McCann platoon, than see them pay the requisite price for Realmuto and pivot to a Markakis/Duvall platoon. The same logic could be applied to Haniger, but Gallo seems more realistic.
    Last edited by jpx7; 12-28-2018 at 02:41 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    I’m still not seeing the appeal of paying the hefty ransom for Realmuto—when the Braves have a viable catching platoon, while Realmuto only has two years of arbitration remaining and is approaching age-30—especially when many of those same advocates balk at the idea of paying for a 25-year-old cOF with four years of control, massive power, solid bb-rates, and (depending on how you value/quantify framing) likely better relative defense than Realmuto.

    I’m not saying Gallo is an end-all cure-all, but I’d rather see the Braves pay the requisite price for his services, and forge ahead with the Flowers/McCann platoon, than see them pay the requisite price for Realmuto and pivot to a Markakis/Duvall platoon. The same logic could be applied to Haniger, but Gallo seems more realistic.
    Realmuto is a lot better player than gallo. Only player the braves had last season that was close to realmuto fWAR wise (4+) last season was FF. The braves had 7 in the Gallo range (2.5+)

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    I’m still not seeing the appeal of paying the hefty ransom for Realmuto—when the Braves have a viable catching platoon, while Realmuto only has two years of arbitration remaining and is approaching age-30—especially when many of those same advocates balk at the idea of paying for a 25-year-old cOF with four years of control, massive power, solid bb-rates, and (depending on how you value/quantify framing) likely better relative defense than Realmuto.

    I’m not saying Gallo is an end-all cure-all, but I’d rather see the Braves pay the requisite price for his services, and forge ahead with the Flowers/McCann platoon, than see them pay the requisite price for Realmuto and pivot to a Markakis/Duvall platoon. The same logic could be applied to Haniger, but Gallo seems more realistic.

    There is an argument to be made that getting Realmuto out of Miami (horrible place to hit) would give him star offensive numbers.

    Acuna, Realmuto, FF, and Donaldson is a very strong 1-4.

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