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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    Who are the 3B free agents next year?

    That makes sense I guess if the Braves don’t think that highly of Riley, but everything I’ve heard says they are big on him. Could just be fluff I guess.
    Arenado, Donaldson, and Rendon are the big 3. Arenado will get 30+ per year imo but he’s as solid of a ball player as it gets. But I agree with encheff, if we trade Riley and Camargo becomes the super sub we hope he does then 3b will be our big target next offseason.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    So I thought Anderson was supposed to be the best of the bunch and the one pitcher we would NOT trade. What has changed? I guess Iíve missed some info somewhere....
    for me he's always been behind Soroka and Gohara...those are my two keepers

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    Arenado, Donaldson, and Rendon are the big 3. Arenado will get 30+ per year imo but he’s as solid of a ball player as it gets. But I agree with encheff, if we trade Riley and Camargo becomes the super sub we hope he does then 3b will be our big target next offseason.
    I would be surprised if we arenít a top bidder for Rendon if the JD experiment fails

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    Arenado, Donaldson, and Rendon are the big 3. Arenado will get 30+ per year imo but he’s as solid of a ball player as it gets. But I agree with encheff, if we trade Riley and Camargo becomes the super sub we hope he does then 3b will be our big target next offseason.
    I really hope we target Rendon if he makes it to FA. Arenado's home/away splits scare me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by UNCBlue012 View Post
    I would be surprised if we aren’t a top bidder for Rendon if the JD experiment fails
    Whether he fails or not I think JD is a stopgap. I think AA wants to fill 3B longterm and JD isn't that guy due to his age.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I really hope we target Rendon if he makes it to FA. Arenado's home/away splits scare me.
    Yeah Rendon would be hard to not target. We should be pretty familiar with him since he’s been in our division and we’ve seen him as much as anybody. It all depends on the Nats imo. If they don’t resign Harper then they will throw that money at resigning Rendon and they’ve already been discussing it from what I’ve read.

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    Quote Originally Posted by UNCBlue012 View Post
    I would be surprised if we arenít a top bidder for Rendon if the JD experiment fails
    Arenado will never happen. Heís asking $30 just in arbitration. I donít see us outbidding the Nationals for Rendon either. We wonít be able to sign Donaldson back most likely unless he just loves playing here a takes a discount.

    Our best chance would be if Donaldson has a good but not great year (which is still well above average for a 3B), and we can sign him to a two or three year deal for about the same money...and THEN he has a few more monster years. That is unlikely.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    for me he's always been behind Soroka and Gohara...those are my two keepers
    Iíve been the same way, but until now...Iíve heard he was the best shot to be an ACE in the Braves system. I guess though by picking him we also were able to nab Wentz and Muller...so Iíll take that.

    Iím honestly more ok with Anderson than Riley, because we have so many pitchers. Riley is really our only infield prospect in the system that is less than two years away.

    I know he probably wonít be a canít miss All Star, but I wish we didnít have so many dang pitchers in out top ten.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    Arenado will never happen. Heís asking $30 just in arbitration. I donít see us outbidding the Nationals for Rendon either. We wonít be able to sign Donaldson back most likely unless he just loves playing here a takes a discount.

    Our best chance would be if Donaldson has a good but not great year (which is still well above average for a 3B), and we can sign him to a two or three year deal for about the same money...and THEN he has a few more monster years. That is unlikely.
    We could absolutely outbid the Nats for him lmao

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    Arenado will never happen. He’s asking $30 just in arbitration. I don’t see us outbidding the Nationals for Rendon either. We won’t be able to sign Donaldson back most likely unless he just loves playing here a takes a discount.

    Our best chance would be if Donaldson has a good but not great year (which is still well above average for a 3B), and we can sign him to a two or three year deal for about the same money...and THEN he has a few more monster years. That is unlikely.
    Donaldson will be 32. And how could we not afford him? Nobody will give him more per year then he’s getting from us right now imo. 30 million a year is never in JD’s future. 25 is tops

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    Jon Heyman

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    Sonny Gray settled st $7.5M. Important for the reds and other potentially interested teams to know. #yankees #reds #others
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    Iím becoming worried that our window is becoming smaller because our prospects beat their projected advancement timeline. Now, they are all bunched up at the top and there isnít room for them.

    This is ďsomewhatĒ of a good problem to have, but at the same time itís not.

    1. Too many highly rated pitchers means you have to make a few trades. Thatís good right? To me not really, because everyone of these trades are NEVER just pitchers. You are always adding another prospect that isnít a pitcher in on a deal...which we have very few.

    2. Trading prospects is a two or three to one gamble. So say Anderson and Riley plus another for JT. Anderson alone represents a top five pick that we spent a year of suffering just to get. Riley was a second round pick, but was also one positive thing from the HO debacle (if I remember right...or was that Wentz).

    3. Making a trade also turns a prospect with six years of control into a MLB player with two or three years control. In trading Riley and Anderson, we give up six years of cheap control times TWO, for TWO years of control for JT and they arenít really cheap years.

    Number three is what worries me. We only have to make a few of these trades to gut the farm and turn us into a win now team, with the lower levels of the farm in bad shape.

    I donít have the answer because there isnít an easy one, but we need to hit a happy medium somehow.

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    Between the arbitration signings and the pick being secured I feel like AA has all the info he needs now. Iím expecting some trade news soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    I’m becoming worried that our window is becoming smaller because our prospects beat their projected advancement timeline. Now, they are all bunched up at the top and there isn’t room for them.

    This is “somewhat” of a good problem to have, but at the same time it’s not.

    1. Too many highly rated pitchers means you have to make a few trades. That’s good right? To me not really, because everyone of these trades are NEVER just pitchers. You are always adding another prospect that isn’t a pitcher in on a deal...which we have very few.

    2. Trading prospects is a two or three to one gamble. So say Anderson and Riley plus another for JT. Anderson alone represents a top five pick that we spent a year of suffering just to get. Riley was a second round pick, but was also one positive thing from the HO debacle (if I remember right...or was that Wentz).

    3. Making a trade also turns a prospect with six years of control into a MLB player with two or three years control. In trading Riley and Anderson, we give up six years of cheap control times TWO, for TWO years of control for JT and they aren’t really cheap years.

    Number three is what worries me. We only have to make a few of these trades to gut the farm and turn us into a win now team, with the lower levels of the farm in bad shape.

    I don’t have the answer because there isn’t an easy one, but we need to hit a happy medium somehow.
    This is what I mean by timing or "windage." When you rebuild you have to develop a realistic goal range of when you should begin to compete. When you get close to the "time to compete and stay competing" time, you need waves of talent lined up throughout the minors (which the Braves have, at least in a limited way - the lower waves are much smaller than they should be or could have been due to a number of issues mainly regarding the team breaking rules and/or flirting with the idiotic "reload" narrative for so long) and you need payroll space to feed the fire from available ML talent (mainly FA but possibly taking contract money on in a trade in effort to have a young player come as well that doesn't cost much).

    The braves aren't exhibiting the payroll space necessary to really feed the fire right now. They got better ahead of schedule in enough areas to build the fan expectation that they are ready to compete, but still had a significant number of holes, holes that can't be filled, today, from within. That means that they need to compete, have holes but have no money to correctly address those holes which leads to a necessity of filling those holes through trade. Because of that necessity other teams see that and sense opportunity and ask for the best of the best of the minor league trading chips who are part of the close wave of young talent available. So far AA appears to be unwilling to give in to those demands or the temptation which leads to discussions about how Muk coming back on a short deal isn't so bad when in reality it is a move that says we aren't ready to compete.

    If you take that a step further "we're not really ready to compete" then becomes a confession that they completely wasted the whatever trade value Teheran had (no question) and likely Freeman's value as well since his very good play will all likely occur during his peak years which fall into an overall area of a time when the team isn't ready to compete WHILE tieing up payroll space that could be better used elsewhere to actually drive the rebuild.

    I've said many times: I have no problem with Freeman as a player, person or anything else. He's a very good baseball player who can occasionally show flashes of great. But keeping him around during the enactment and advancement of the rebuild was the equivalent of malpractice UNLESS there was going to be enough payroll space available in the future at some point (say, like now) to finish off the team to the point where young talent can be used in trades of desire as opposed to trades of necessity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    Between the arbitration signings and the pick being secured I feel like AA has all the info he needs now. I’m expecting some trade news soon.
    Agreed....i'd imagine he gets more aggressive this week.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    This is what I mean by timing or "windage." When you rebuild you have to develop a realistic goal range of when you should begin to compete. When you get close to the "time to compete and stay competing" time, you need waves of talent lined up throughout the minors (which the Braves have, at least in a limited way - the lower waves are much smaller than they should be or could have been due to a number of issues mainly regarding the team breaking rules and/or flirting with the idiotic "reload" narrative for so long) and you need payroll space to feed the fire from available ML talent (mainly FA but possibly taking contract money on in a trade in effort to have a young player come as well that doesn't cost much).

    The braves aren't exhibiting the payroll space necessary to really feed the fire right now. They got better ahead of schedule in enough areas to build the fan expectation that they are ready to compete, but still had a significant number of holes, holes that can't be filled, today, from within. That means that they need to compete, have holes but have no money to correctly address those holes which leads to a necessity of filling those holes through trade. Because of that necessity other teams see that and sense opportunity and ask for the best of the best of the minor league trading chips who are part of the close wave of young talent available. So far AA appears to be unwilling to give in to those demands or the temptation which leads to discussions about how Muk coming back on a short deal isn't so bad when in reality it is a move that says we aren't ready to compete.

    If you take that a step further "we're not really ready to compete" then becomes a confession that they completely wasted the whatever trade value Teheran had (no question) and likely Freeman's value as well since his very good play will all likely occur during his peak years which fall into an overall area of a time when the team isn't ready to compete WHILE tieing up payroll space that could be better used elsewhere to actually drive the rebuild.

    I've said many times: I have no problem with Freeman as a player, person or anything else. He's a very good baseball player who can occasionally show flashes of great. But keeping him around during the enactment and advancement of the rebuild was the equivalent of malpractice UNLESS there was going to be enough payroll space available in the future at some point (say, like now) to finish off the team to the point where young talent can be used in trades of desire as opposed to trades of necessity.
    curious...do you think we wasted Freeman's value in 2018

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Completely depends on how much you believe in Pache's bat - there have been plenty of others who have questioned it, including some here.

    I'm not campaigning to move him by any stretch, but given the fact that we control Ender and Waters is coming behind him I would if it got you someone that fits as well as Peralta. AA was told "no" based on what he offered earlier, and I'm sure he wouldn't have included Pache in that offer so early on. Under any other circumstances I wouldn't trade him either, but doing so wouldn't hurt nearly as much or shorten the window since you'd still have Waters.
    I donít particularly believe in his bat and still think itís bad.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    curious...do you think we wasted Freeman's value in 2018
    Of course Freeman helped us, but whoís to say the three high prospects attained by trading him back in 2016-2017 might have helped us just as much or more.

    The rebuild went well, but it could have been a lot more efficient.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    curious...do you think we wasted Freeman's value in 2018
    Yes and here's why:

    Freemans good year helped drive the team forward into a premature posture of being ready to really compete. It created the situation that AA is in today. He can't do nothing, so he gambles $23M on Donaldson. That might pay off and, assuming it was one of the few holes on the team, could certainly be justified. For instance, let's say the Braves had an internal RF ready to go and be a 2-3 win player with opportunity to develop into more and let's say that they had something similar for catcher, then bringing Donaldson in as a bridge/final piece for a really good 2019 team makes sense (all given the financial outlook that appears to be the case). Then AA can use his leftover cash to fill bullpen holes and bench and maybe spend some prospect capital if he chooses.

    But that's not where he is. He gambles on a production boon out of Donaldson. Then he positions himself to fill other major holes by trading away his prospect capital because he really has no other choice given his payroll constraints. Other teams know he isn't a position of trading because he wants to, but has to so every team wants an overpay. He's got a choice: pay the price in prospect capital and try to compete now as 2018 suggests, spending prospect capital at a rate and level of talent not conducive to a long term window OR not pay the price, hold the prospects, try to sell the idea of scrap heap and declining guys like Muk as the answer and pray. Either option isn't really good.

    This argument is completely different than: Was Freeman good in 2018? Is he worth his contract? Is he likely to be worth the rest of his contract? etc. etc. The tactical answer is yes, yes, yes.

    The strategic answer is that when the Braves decided to rebuild they should have maximized all asset returns to very best ability with an eye on competing some time years in the future (given the expected payroll levels of the future). If ownership says in 2014: OK, we rebuild BUT in 2019 you can count on the payroll being top 5 in baseball (projected $180M+), no worse than top 10 in baseball (projected $160M+) then that informs the way you rebuild and fits closer to what the Braves have done. If ownership says modest payroll growth to flat by 2019 slotting you somewhere in the range of mid-point to below in baseball, then you rebuild like the Astros did - sell your assets for talent and draft position, take payroll very low and grow over time leaving yourself room as 2019 approaches to spend as necessary to fill in the blanks, all the while you try to lock up your best assets on good contracts and work ownership around to the idea of growing payroll y/y/y to maintain the excellence once you reach excellence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    Of course Freeman helped us, but whoís to say the three high prospects attained by trading him back in 2016-2017 might have helped us just as much or more.

    The rebuild went well, but it could have been a lot more efficient.
    Who's to say those 3 prospects would ever make a significant impact? Maybe they all bust. It's happened plenty of times before.

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