2018 Offseason And Targets

[Horsehide Harry]

high top tax rate =! socialism.
and, still no. players will not leave the USA to go live in japan a majority of the year, regardless of marginal tax rates. the stars won't have more earning power in japan regardless.
our highest marginal rate is 39.6% with tons of loopholes. why aren't the worlds best soccer players coming here rather than playing in Germany, Italy, Spain, etc?

Again, it was answer to a hypothetical, one where it was stated that the tax rate goes to 70% or above.

As for soccer players, they also play where the money is. The average MLS salary was about $175 in 2018. The EPL was $3.2M. La Liga $1.6M. Manchester United had an average player salary of $7.6M.

Even with higher tax rates, they make more money. That is possible because MLS isn't really a thing in the US in comparison to European leagues. But, if the effective tax rates in Europe forced the comp levels below the effective levels of MLS, then you would see an influx of talent into the US which would improve the play and eventually increase the level of fan interest and franchise value and TV contracts which would, in theory, make the MLS even more attractive. Right now, it's not that way.

People go play where they can make the most money. That's the crux of the argument from the beginning.

[Super]

You literally wrote "JD greatly improves two positions"... and why do you think Camargo over performed and isn't likely to repeat? Any specific stats you can point to?

I mean, I guess we'll never know since we relegated him to the bench... even getting steady ABs we have no idea how that will impact him.

Donaldson WAS an MVP level player. It remains to be seen if he can recapture that form after his prime is over.

it's been laid out quite a few times how he was lucky last year especially in regards to power output. comprehending it means understanding numbers, tho.

[Super]

Even with higher tax rates, they make more money.

and this exact same thing would be true of the US vs Japan. the salaries are not close.

[Horsehide Harry]

I think the point he's trying to make is that, even in a world where the US passed Ocasio-Cortez's 70% marginal tax rate on income over $10 million, it's not going to be profitable for players to leave for Japan, or any other baseball-playing country because a) the 70% rate is marginal, meaning it only applies to income over $10 million, b) despite being the second largest baseball market in the world, Japan's 3 highest-paid players only made ~$4.5 million in 2017, and the average Japanese player's salary is less than one-tenth that of MLB players, and c) Japan already taxes income over $365,000 at 45% so it's not like they're some tax-free utopia.

The point was always that players play where they can make the most money. "IF" it becomes a situation where that becomes Japan, then they will play in Japan. This is their profession. It really has nothing to do "with the joy of the game" and very little to do with "the level of competition."

[Horsehide Harry]

and this exact same thing would be true of the US vs Japan. the salaries are not close.

Nice cherry picking

[Super]

The point was always that players play where they can make the most money. "IF" it becomes a situation where that becomes Japan, then they will play in Japan. This is their profession. It really has nothing to do "with the joy of the game" and very little to do with "the level of competition."

do you think the best players in the MLB are close to making $4.5MM/year?
that's wade miley money, son.

[Super]

Nice cherry picking

lol what?
how is that cherry picking?
MLB players make WAY more than Japanese league players. even with the down FA years, WADE MILEY just signed a contract for close to what the top japanese league players make. you think that's in danger of closing in any time soon? i'll just laugh at that suggestion, i guess.

[Horsehide Harry]

do you think the best players in the MLB are close to making $4.5MM/year?
that's wade miley money, son.

You're just arguing for the sake of it and I'm done with it.

And that's not relevant to Wade Miley's money, son.

[bravesfanMatt]

How about a -.048 delta between his wOBA and xwOBA against right handed pitching? Or even a -.020 point delta against left handed pitching. The dude was pretty lucky last year and its relatively unlikely that he'd be able to repeat a 3 win season.

I love xwOBA. But this is a far too young of a stat to use as reference at this point. That coupled with Johan having one year of batted ball profile. I just don’t think you can draw that conclusion so definitely. I would take an over 3 bet on Johan if he starts 120+ games. He was terrible as a pinch hitter.

[Enscheff]

How about a -.048 delta between his wOBA and xwOBA against right handed pitching? Or even a -.020 point delta against left handed pitching. The dude was pretty lucky last year and its relatively unlikely that he'd be able to repeat a 3 win season.

Out of 332 qualified batters, Camargo ranked #219 in Brls/BBE and #236 in average FB/LD exit velocity.

That correlates roughly to a HR/FB rate of 9.6%-10.6% and an ISO of .138-.145.

Camargo's HR/FB in 2018 was 15.0%, and as a result, his ISO was .185.

Camargo simply doesn't hit the ball hard enough to support the power numbers he displayed in 2018. Additionally, his overall 9.7% BB rate was largely inflated by a huge spike in BBs early in the season that regressed heavily in the 2nd half.

When his ISO normalizes to the .150 range, and his BB rate normalizes to well below 10%, he becomes the ~100 wRC+ hitter his projections say he is rather than the 115 wRC+ hitter he was in 2018.

There's a reason the Braves made a big move to force Camargo to the bench...he's a (good) bench player...exactly as I said he was over a year ago.

[bravesfanMatt]

Out of 332 qualified batters, Camargo ranked #219 in Brls/BBE and #236 in average FB/LD exit velocity.

That correlates roughly to a HR/FB rate of 9.6%-10.6% and an ISO of .138-.145.

Camargo's HR/FB in 2018 was 15.0%, and as a result, his ISO was .185.

Camargo simply doesn't hit the ball hard enough to support the power numbers he displayed in 2018. His overall 9.7% BB rate was also largely inflated by a huge spike in BBs early in the season that regressed heavily in the 2nd half.

When his ISO normalizes to the .150 range, and his BB rate normalizes to well below 10%, he becomes the ~100 wRC hitter his projections say he is rather than the 115 cWRC hitter he was in 2018.

There's a reason the Braves made a big move to force Camargo to the bench...he's a (good) bench player...exactly as I said he was over a year ago.

Why did he hit better in the second half when his BB% normalized?

[Super]

You're just arguing for the sake of it and I'm done with it.

And that's not relevant to Wade Miley's money, son.

ok buddy.
if 1,000,000 very unlikely things happen the MLB will begin losing players to Japan. totally worthwhile, fantastic point you've made there.

[bravesfanMatt]

Why did he hit better in the second half when his BB% normalized?

To answer my own question. It does look like his batted ball profile showed more luck in the second half.

[CrazyTrain]

it's been laid out quite a few times how he was lucky last year especially in regards to power output. comprehending it means understanding numbers, tho.

I'm a F engineer, you idiot... I clearly haven't seen the numbers... hence "why do you think..."?

[rawwr]

The point was always that players play where they can make the most money. "IF" it becomes a situation where that becomes Japan, then they will play in Japan. This is their profession. It really has nothing to do "with the joy of the game" and very little to do with "the level of competition."

You said:

Trying to keep it to baseball, if the Occasional Cortex's of the world ever get their way, you'll see the best players in Japan and other leagues and/or you'll see a lot of contracts for $9,999,999 plus deferred years and money to infinity.

Which is what I was referring to, and my point was that even in a world where Occasional Cortex got her way, the US would still be easily the most profitable place to play.

And more to DirkPiggler's point, in the event that Harper/Machado sign a contract for 10/$300 and then the US implements a 70% marginal tax rate, there's nothing stopping them from renegotiating the contract to spread the payments out - that would be a win for both sides.

[Carp]

The point was always that players play where they can make the most money. "IF" it becomes a situation where that becomes Japan, then they will play in Japan. This is their profession. It really has nothing to do "with the joy of the game" and very little to do with "the level of competition."

You also aren't factoring in the big task of moving your whole family to another country. You're never going to see big MLB stars leave for Japan because the money will never be significant enough to leave, even if your Doomsday scenario played out.

[Enscheff]

To answer my own question. It does look like his batted ball profile showed more luck in the second half.

If we haven't seen enough Braves hitters ride a lucky streak to unsustainable results by now, no amount of data will "prove" it.

This is not the Coppy FO that pretends to be smart, but doesn't actually know anything about the modern game. AA has all the same data I do, plus more I've never even heard of. His comment “Camargo has some lightning from the right side” made me dig into the data and confirm he is correct. He knows what Camargo is, just like I know what Camargo is. That's why Camargo is on the bench providing value in a utility role, and JD was given $23M for 2019.

[Enscheff]

I'm a F engineer, you idiot... I clearly haven't seen the numbers... hence "why do you think..."?

Does F mean fail in this case like it does everywhere else?

You must be the worst engineer on the planet lol. What types of projects do you work on? Hopefully nothing that requires more math skills than the ones you used in the Gausman quote in my sig haha!

[The Chosen One]

This has been quite a thread. 404 pages covering so many different topics.

[bravesfanMatt]

This has been quite a thread. 404 pages covering so many different topics.

I blame AA and the broken American baseball system. We need to take this thread over seas to get the best value.