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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

  1. #8561
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    Phils upgraded by about 3 wins, and will upgrade by another 3-4 wins when they sign Machado or Harper.

    That leaves the projected NL East to be roughly

    Nats 91 wins
    Mets 85 wins
    Phils 85 wins
    Braves 82 wins

    The Braves are still certainly contenders, but they are pretty clearly on their way to being the 4th best team on paper.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I think he improved our baseline in wins. Literally every other team besides the Marlins are trying to for it. Like 90% of moves in the NL are from teams in the East.
    If you want to use projections as your fallback as more numerically-inclined posters do (without trying to re-hash all the old arguments about how close those projections will actually look like the real numbers come October), that's more than defensible.

    The problem is - no matter how one wants to juggle the numbers and projections - anyone who says they're happy with this offseason given the assets and money AA had is lying. If you're not disappointed in an MVP-level guy with huge injury concerns, Mac (and his injury issues), and Markakis (and his expected steeper decline) as your "upgrades", you're at least telling a pretty big white lie.

    No matter what points more analytically-leaning posters toss out there, the Braves fanbase in general is understandably *issed about this winter.
    Last edited by clvclv; 02-07-2019 at 04:01 PM.
    Waters is intersting too. Would prefer a guy that projects to more power though. (2017 Draft Thread)

    If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team. (What's the best we could hope for in 2018?)


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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Anthopolous made the first major signing of the offseason (Donaldson) well before anything happened on the cOF market.

    I think people are being ridiculously low on Donaldson, who is a fairly good bet to be the best hitter of the free agent class in 2019.

    3B in my opinion was a need and the combination of Donaldson, Markakis and Camargo on the bench is better than most of the alternatives, I've seen.
    Well, I am fairly sure folks are expecting too much. Once a player breaks down, particularly his hitting base they are never the same. One need not look any further than Chipper. What looked like 3000/500 HR synch went away quickly with bad legs, followed by shoulder and back.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think it is slightly higher at this point. There are various ways of estimating payrolls (some include pro-rated bonuses, salaries of guys on the 40 man but not 25 man, etc). So make sure it is an apples to apples comparison.

    I would also make the point that every team has the option of moving forward wins from future seasons by trading prospects for major league talent. I would argue that the extent to which we choose to do that should not be overly influenced by what the other teams in our division are doing. Rather it should mainly be based on what I call the value proposition. If we focus relentlessly on value (and AA seems to be doing that) everything else will take care of itself.
    IIRC, the 2018 opening day payroll was $110M, or $118M if you counted Kazmir's deferred money all up front.

    The Braves currently sit at $114M, and will almost certainly add around the edges of the roster before ST.

    Payroll went up, but not by nearly the amount folks were hoping. It seems to me AA understands contention is not guaranteed, and neither is the extra revenue contention would provide.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

  5. #8565
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Need to factor in framing too
    Also Suzuki is being paid more on a multi-year year deal.
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    I’d be perfectly fine with Mac if we wouldn’t have brought back Neck bc we had to upgrade 1 of the 2 spots by a good margin and we didn’t do that. Bringing back Neck to be a starter while trying to compete with all the other teams in our division getting better was unacceptable imo. We just won the division and had a ton of ammo to use and we just fell flat. I know all about how many wins he added and at what cost but that’s my biggest pet peeve about the whole thing. It’s mostly tied to just one guy.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Phils upgraded by about 3 wins, and will upgrade by another 3-4 wins when they sign Machado or Harper.

    That leaves the projected NL East to be roughly

    Nats 91 wins
    Mets 85 wins
    Phils 85 wins
    Braves 82 wins

    The Braves are still certainly contenders, but they are pretty clearly on their way to being the 4th best team on paper.
    How did the Braves drop to 82 wins from 85 wins in your post half an hour ago?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    I’d be perfectly fine with Mac if we wouldn’t have brought back Neck bc we had to upgrade 1 of the 2 spots by a good margin and we didn’t do that. Bringing back Neck to be a starter while trying to compete with all the other teams in our division getting better was unacceptable imo. We just won the division and had a ton of ammo to use and we just fell flat. I know all about how many wins he added and at what cost but that’s my biggest pet peeve about the whole thing. It’s mostly tied to just one guy.
    Who we have to pray the DH gets added in 2019 so we can hope he has a better chance of making it through 140+ games.
    Waters is intersting too. Would prefer a guy that projects to more power though. (2017 Draft Thread)

    If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team. (What's the best we could hope for in 2018?)


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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Phils upgraded by about 3 wins, and will upgrade by another 3-4 wins when they sign Machado or Harper.

    That leaves the projected NL East to be roughly

    Nats 91 wins
    Mets 85 wins
    Phils 85 wins
    Braves 82 wins

    The Braves are still certainly contenders, but they are pretty clearly on their way to being the 4th best team on paper.
    What was this projection last year? Do you have access to that?

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    I expect the Phils to bring in Keuchel and maybe Kimbrel. If they add Harper or Machado then they are clearly the best team in the division.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Who we have to pray the DH gets added in 2019 so we can hope he has a better chance of making it through 140+ games.
    If Donaldson goes down for a long period of time we are done for the season without really overpaying for somebody in a trade. We got lucky a lot last year and I don’t see it happening 2 years in a row.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    How did the Braves drop to 82 wins from 85 wins in your post half an hour ago?
    Disappointment from missing out on realmuto is worth -0.12 wins. Multiply that by 25 players and you get -3 wins. Math brah

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    IIRC, the 2018 opening day payroll was $110M, or $118M if you counted Kazmir's deferred money all up front.

    The Braves currently sit at $114M, and will almost certainly add around the edges of the roster before ST.

    Payroll went up, but not by nearly the amount folks were hoping. It seems to me AA understands contention is not guaranteed, and neither is the extra revenue contention would provide.
    My calculation was last year was $113M and I concur with your $114M for this year so far. It will be around 117M after we add Bud Norris.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think it is slightly higher at this point. There are various ways of estimating payrolls (some include pro-rated bonuses, salaries of guys on the 40 man but not 25 man, etc). So make sure it is an apples to apples comparison.

    I would also make the point that every team has the option of moving forward wins from future seasons by trading prospects for major league talent. I would argue that the extent to which we choose to do that should not be overly influenced by what the other teams in our division are doing. Rather it should mainly be based on what I call the value proposition. If we focus relentlessly on value (and AA seems to be doing that) everything else will take care of itself.

    It's hard to say for sure, but AJC calculated them at about 116 with the buyouts and the number seems to be around 114 now. I sort of think they'll add a good bit to the 114 though. Even if it's just a string of minor ****.

    What your opponents are doing doesn't make much difference, except that it significantly affects your chances to make the playoffs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    If Donaldson goes down for a long period of time we are done for the season without really overpaying for somebody in a trade. We got lucky a lot last year and I don’t see it happening 2 years in a row.
    If Donaldson goes down they will play Camargo at 3B, which a lot of people seem to think went well last year.

    The season is hardly over. To the extent, that a Donaldson injury would hurt their chances that would be true of an injury to any of the Braves best players.

    I've not really understood the thinking that Donaldson is a huge injury risk. He's been hurt before. He's also been a workhorse before. It's not chronic stuff.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Disappointment from missing out on realmuto is worth -0.12 wins. Multiply that by 25 players and you get -3 wins. Math brah
    hey...let's talk about Dansby...i hear his wrist is feeling really strong
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    How did the Braves drop to 82 wins from 85 wins in your post half an hour ago?
    Because I mentally add in catcher framing and the Acuna bump.

    FG doesn't.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    hey...let's talk about Dansby...i hear his wrist is feeling really strong
    .775 ops this year. It's going down




    No bet

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    I still have us at 83-85 wins, but I think we have to add at least some sort of piece before the end of the offseason. Preferably, that piece would be Marwin Gonzalez for me, but I'm not sure we have the resources to get that done. Looking at our options and limitations, I'm not really sure what pieces we could add that would move the needle a ton at this point.

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    Question for the numbers crowd (no one's taking a shot at you)...

    $31 million spent on Donaldson, Markakis, and Mac and moving Camargo to the bench (with a little left over for somewhat inconsequential signings)

    OR

    $31 million per spent on Harper, promoting Riley, and moving Camargo to the bench (with a little left over for somewhat inconsequential signings)???


    We all get that a long-term deal for Harper is a gamble, but you seriously believe one of Riley or Camargo couldn't produce enough more at 3B rather than going with Donaldson at 3B and Markakis instead of Harper in RF?

    The money will never work out exactly, but if you have Julio, Vizcaino, O'Day, Culberson, Duvall, Mac, and other marginal bench/pen options coming off the books in the not so distant future that you can replace with less-expensive options, would you really be THAT much better off running away from a big commitment???
    Last edited by clvclv; 02-07-2019 at 04:27 PM.
    Waters is intersting too. Would prefer a guy that projects to more power though. (2017 Draft Thread)

    If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team. (What's the best we could hope for in 2018?)


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