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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

  1. #8581
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Question for the numbers crowd (no one's taking a shot at you)...

    $31 million spent on Donaldson, Markakis, and Mac and moving Camargo to the bench (with a little left over for somewhat inconsequential signings)

    OR

    $31 million per spent on Harper, promoting Riley, and moving Camargo to the bench (with a little left over for somewhat inconsequential signings)???


    We all get that a long-term deal for Harper is a gamble, but you seriously believe one of Riley or Camargo couldn't produce enough more at 3B rather than going with Donaldson at 3B and Markakis instead of Harper in RF?

    The money will never work out exactly, but if you have Julio, Vizcaino, O'Day, Culberson, Duvall, Mac, and other marginal bench/pen options coming off the books in the not so distant future that you can replace with less-expensive options, would you really be THAT much better off running away from a big commitment???
    Bryce Harper projects to be a 5 WAR player. Donaldson+McCann+Muk project to be 6 WAR players total.

    So that's the simple part.

    Then add the risk associated with a long-term commitment.

    Plus the fact Bryce is going to make an AAV north of the 31M you are assuming.

    Plus a good chance we get a draft pick from losing Donaldson.

    And your question answers itself.
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  2. #8582
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    I knew AA's plan all along was to get Harper. Markakis is going to be the super utility guy when Camargo isn't doing it. He'll play 1b, 2b, short, catcher and OF.
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  4. #8583
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    If Donaldson goes down they will play Camargo at 3B, which a lot of people seem to think went well last year.

    The season is hardly over. To the extent, that a Donaldson injury would hurt their chances that would be true of an injury to any of the Braves best players.

    I've not really understood the thinking that Donaldson is a huge injury risk. He's been hurt before. He's also been a workhorse before. It's not chronic stuff.
    I disagree. Soft tissue injuries plague guys once they start. He missed a month in 2017 with a calf injury and only played in 52 games last year after missing Jun/July/Aug with two recurrences of the calf injury along with some of April with an arm issue. I think you can call his calf issues chronic at this point.

  5. #8584
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Bryce Harper projects to be a 5 WAR player. Donaldson+McCann+Muk project to be 6 WAR players total.

    So that's the simple part.

    Then add the risk associated with a long-term commitment.

    Plus the fact Bryce is going to make an AAV north of the 31M you are assuming.

    Plus a good chance we get a draft pick from losing Donaldson.

    And your question answers itself.
    Harper LF 4.9
    Camargo 3B about 1.5 war, I would guess as a projection if he started.
    Riley .1 (I'm sure the assumption from civ is that he's more than passable MLB player, which isn't even necessarily likely to be the case, IMO).
    not sure what we're doing at catcher. Replacement level?


    Markakis LF 1.0
    Donaldson 4.1
    McCann .8
    Camargo 1.0


    Grades out roughly the same before you consider the elephant in the room (Harper's contract) that for some reason is disregarded in this hypothetical, which is silly if we are talking about things in real life.

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    Kinda surprised Philly included Sixto to get JTR.

    JTR is great but thats a steep price. Sixto has legit ace potential but some injury concerns so i guess they're using him now while his value is peak, and Alfaro is a good catching prospect under control for awhile. The rest is just filler.

    Not sure what a Braves trade looks like from that end, but would have been pretty costly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyTrain View Post
    I disagree. Soft tissue injuries plague guys once they start. He missed a month in 2017 with a calf injury and only played in 52 games last year after missing Jun/July/Aug with two recurrences of the calf injury along with some of April with an arm issue. I think you can call his calf issues chronic at this point.

    Ehhh, maybe. It was a ST injury that aggravated during the season. he then strained the other one when he came back. Decent chance that rest and strength work will cure it. But I guess some guys have it persist. But I wouldn't call it a certainty.

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    Mish- Multiple sources inform me (which will soon be denied) that the Braves final offer to the Marlins for Realmuto did include 3B Austin Riley but "not much else." Miami preferred the Phillies package of Sanchez with Alfaro, and there you have it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    If Donaldson goes down they will play Camargo at 3B, which a lot of people seem to think went well last year.

    The season is hardly over. To the extent, that a Donaldson injury would hurt their chances that would be true of an injury to any of the Braves best players.

    I've not really understood the thinking that Donaldson is a huge injury risk. He's been hurt before. He's also been a workhorse before. It's not chronic stuff.
    And then the bench that was a strength becomes a weakness again. Bottom line we are 3rd maybe 4th in the division on paper right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Ehhh, maybe. It was a ST injury that aggravated during the season. he then strained the other one when he came back. Decent chance that rest and strength work will cure it. But I guess some guys have it persist. But I wouldn't call it a certainty.
    I think we need to manage Donaldson carefully, but I don't have any major concerns regarding his injury history. When he was with Cleveland he looked like his old self. Maybe giving him a day off every week with pinch hitting duties. DHing him and playing Camargo at 3rd during interleague games in AL stadiums. I'd like to see him start about 135-140 games this year. I think he'll be fine if he gets enough rest and doesn't have anything unlucky happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    And then the bench that was a strength becomes a weakness again. Bottom line we are 3rd maybe 4th in the division on paper right now.
    I think we have more variance in our expected outcomes than any other team in the league right now. We have soooo many young guys and we have a great idea of how many of them will deviate from their median expected outcomes. We also don't know how far some of them will deviate from it. We have a few guys with injury concerns, but massive upside. We have guys that could potentially regress from their numbers last season, but not necessarily will regress.

    We have a massive range of potential outcomes. Right now, I say I'd project us for the 83-85 win range, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see our actual win total deviate from that by 10 wins in either direction.

  12. #8591
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    To my knowledge, the Baseball Prospectus WAR system is the only one that includes pitch framing. I just pulled the average WAR / 600 PA over the past three years for these guys . . .

    J. T. Realmuto: 4.5
    Tyler Flowers: 6.1

    This approach of averaging PAs is of course a little unfair to Realmuto since he's giving you more PAs each year. Still . . . I'm happy the Braves have Tyler, and happy this whole saga is over!

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    What's an optimistic but still realistic outlook for our catchers this year WAR wise?

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    Catching is not a weak spot. Flowers “should” have a better year hitting than last.

    Mac should have a LOT better year if his knee is healthy.

    Have you guys ever thought that the Marlins just liked the guys offered better? How would you have felt with Riley, Contreras +? That’s what the Marlins were looking for.

    That’s over 10 plus years of control for two years of JT.

    Subtract the production from what we have and it is just NOT worth that.

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    Hunter Pence just signed a minor league deal...I may have thrown my hat in for that. He's all but done though.

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    I am happy not making that deal. We still have the kids. By the end of this year, we all may be saying “whew,” that was close. :)

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    Would you all do whatever pitcher the marlins wanted plus Contreras for Realmuto?

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    Quote Originally Posted by dak View Post
    To my knowledge, the Baseball Prospectus WAR system is the only one that includes pitch framing. I just pulled the average WAR / 600 PA over the past three years for these guys . . .

    J. T. Realmuto: 4.5
    Tyler Flowers: 6.1

    This approach of averaging PAs is of course a little unfair to Realmuto since he's giving you more PAs each year. Still . . . I'm happy the Braves have Tyler, and happy this whole saga is over!
    Flowers is really good at pitch framing. If he hits anywhere near his 16 and 17 levels the Braves will be one of the better teams in the league at the position. I just don't think that's anywhere close to a guarantee right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    Would you all do whatever pitcher the marlins wanted plus Contreras for Realmuto?
    No because Contreras is the catcher of the future and extending JTR would be a mistake.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    No because Contreras is the catcher of the future and extending JTR would be a mistake.
    That was my thought. Especially with arb numbers now. Does jtr get 20 million next year?

    Still think there is some big move when Harper is gone

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    That was my thought. Especially with arb numbers now. Does jtr get 20 million next year?

    Still think there is some big move when Harper is gone
    JTR won't get 20 million next year. He's only making 5.9 million in 2019 so something ~12 million in his final year is likely if he plays well.

    He will cost a lot after that though and his production is likely to start sliding quick during that contract. Ages 30-31 is when the decline usually hits fast. Not every catcher is the same of course but just taking a quick look at players like Lucroy, Mac, Mauer, etc it was around that age. Posey is likely the next in that list with a down year at age 31 last year.

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