This is where I think it's completely fair to criticize AA without the benefit of hindsight.
There were many players available to upgrade 3B/Util, and Camargo was already established as a good Util guy or low end regular at 3B. He also had Riley nearly ready. If there was one position AA should have been willing to bargain shop, it should have been 3B/Util.
There were very few options at C and cOF, and the Braves had HUGE holes at those positions. Those were NOT the positions to rely on bargain hunting.
Instead of prioritizing C and cOF, and then bargain hunting at 3B/Util late in the off season as supply/demand dictated he should have, AA allowed his boner for JD force him to prioritize 3B/Util and then bargain hunt at C/cOF as a direct result.
Problem is, there are no bargains to be had at C/cOF, and right now Mous is sitting out there with zero rumors of any interest after Asdrubal signed for Markakis money.
Last edited by Enscheff; 02-08-2019 at 02:19 PM.
"Acuna is getting lucky, just like CJ did when he batted .321 and won a batting title. He is unlikely to get lucky at the MLB level over an extended period of time. He will settle in around .300-.320 just like everyone else, and when he does, he won't be within shouting distance of the 1.000 OPS he is posting in AAA...more like low .700s in 2018." -Enscheff 8/25/17
I think Brantley/Grandal would have been a perfectly reasonable plan, but I don't think the Braves would do this differently based on what players signed for. I think they found Donaldson to be an MVP candidate available on a one year deal and they very much liked the idea of letting the rest of the market come to them. I think they are largely living out what they game planned.
I think engaging in a Realmuto bidding war would have suggested the opposite.
But I don't know.
I'm not saying their plan is the best. I'm just saying I consider it to be a reasonable plan.
When you're playing the market, the idea is to look for the bottom (like this past Christmas Eve). The problem with that mentality is you miss out on some good runs if you're always sitting on your cash.
I feel like AA is the ultimate value investor who will make some great trades, but fear will cause him to miss some good ones as well.
Last edited by smootness; 02-08-2019 at 02:25 PM.
"Acuna is getting lucky, just like CJ did when he batted .321 and won a batting title. He is unlikely to get lucky at the MLB level over an extended period of time. He will settle in around .300-.320 just like everyone else, and when he does, he won't be within shouting distance of the 1.000 OPS he is posting in AAA...more like low .700s in 2018." -Enscheff 8/25/17
Garmel (02-09-2019)
I think there's a difference between using this year as a trial and using young guys because they're your best option. If Riley was our best option at 3B, then put him out there and let's see what he has. But don't make decisions on the pieces you add because of that.
Just like I wouldn't want us to avoid making a clear upgrade at SP just because we needed to see what we have out of Touki or any of the young guys. But if you feel like they give us enough, even with their youth, and you want to use money elsewhere, go for it.
"Acuna is getting lucky, just like CJ did when he batted .321 and won a batting title. He is unlikely to get lucky at the MLB level over an extended period of time. He will settle in around .300-.320 just like everyone else, and when he does, he won't be within shouting distance of the 1.000 OPS he is posting in AAA...more like low .700s in 2018." -Enscheff 8/25/17
I think we're using two different measuring sticks here. You're looking at value strictly from the analytics viewpoint divorced from the realities of the game. And that's a valid viewpoint. From a pure baseball standpoint, it's probably more valid than mine. And I'm not saying Touki has a higher FV than Sixto.
However, the guys pulling the triggers on trades don't base everything on what the stats say. Not even the most analytical minded do that. Baseball is first and foremost a business and the GMs are tasked with keeping the businesses running.
The present ability to contribute has tremendous value. It's much easier to justify to the average fan trading a star player when you receive guys back who contribute quickly. Many GM's also will place greater value on the mitigation of risk than on an elite potential payoff. While FV takes where a player is in terms of development and the risk associated with them into account, a GM that has his job on the line probably isn't valuing guys the same as Fangraphs.
So you are correct that Sixto has more value if you're judging purely in terms of FV. But I am now and have at all points been talking about value in terms of trades. The realities of the business mean that things other than baseball value are considered. They probably shouldn't be, but they are.
I can go along with the idea about finding out what Camargo is except I think most everyone in baseball feels like they already know. But that's defendable. I sort of think getting 500 ABs still lets you do that, but ok you think he will have a problem with moving around the diamond and not playing every day. Fair concern.
Holding open a spot for Riley makes no sense to me at all.
I'm not saying trades shouldn't have been made, but your logic is circular here. The reason one doesn't prematurely move pitching prospects is that a lot of pitching prospect don't pan out and you need quality replacements. Soroka's and Gohara's issues are why you need ample pitching prospects.
Last edited by 50PoundHead; 02-08-2019 at 03:00 PM.
If it doesn't come you make do with the short term value that you can find.
That's what limited resources means.
None of the alternatives being discussed would have made the Braves the favorites for the championship. I'm not sure most of them would have made them the favorites in the division. to some degree, that's not in their control.
That's an odd argument that you're making. Basically that you're fine using 2019 as a trial area for our struggling pitchers but not the guy who had more than 3 WAR last season?
Adding Josh says we want to compete in 2019 or want his QO draft pick.
Adding Nick, Mac and not touching the rotation after losing Anibal says we are rebuilding.
That points far more to rebuilding than it does the opposite.
It's hard to know how things will shake out. Camargo will absolutely play some OF this year, while it's unlikely Neck makes anywhere close to the same amount of starts as last season. Assuming some sort of time share where Neck starts 60 percent of the games and Duval and Camargo combine for the other 40 percent, I'd feel pretty confident that group would put up 2-3 WAR in the games they start in LF/RF.
You're right, it's about what they haven't done that suggests they are still rebuilding... which is not address a rotation that features one guy who's had a plus season.
I guess you could split hairs and call it building instead of rebuilding, but clearly there's still a lot we need to improve to be truly competitive and when we are, most of us will likely forget JD was even here except for whatever pitcher we take with his QO pick.
Last edited by CrazyTrain; 02-08-2019 at 03:07 PM.
You really think Nick is going to go from playing 162 to around 100? The lowest projection service has him at 137. I'll set the over/under at 140.
I'm beginning to wonder if the JD signing is actually "Swanson insurance" in case Camargo needs to take over that spot full time (or 2B if Albies moves) if Dansby doesn't improve. He's the biggest weakness offensively.