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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

  1. #8921
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    A factor to go against an individual performer would be that we have so many options I believe there will be a lot of DL/Minor league stints for guys to rest up and monitor innings.

    Would I be shocked if ~9 guys get 50+ starters innings? Probably not...
    that's pretty normal...most teams end up giving 5 or more starts to quite a few pitchers
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    Last year, the Braves divided up starts as follows: Folty (31), Teheran (31), Newcomb (30), Sanchez (24), McCarthy (15), Gausman (10), Fried (5), Toussaint (5), Soroka (5), Wisler (3), Gohara (1), Allard (1), Wilson (1)
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    that's pretty normal...most teams end up giving 5 or more starts to quite a few pitchers
    Nor by choice though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I think AA is done. My wild speculation is that there's a bonus structure motivating AA and co to be cheaper and maximize profits.
    Seems unlikely given the nature of GMs in baseball. If AA can't put us in the playoffs consistently, he'll be out of a job, and that extra bonus money (may be a few hundred thousand) won't mean jack ****. So it would be in his best interest to consistently put together the best possible team with the payroll allotted.

    Now it's possible Liberty has tightened the purse strings in order to maximize profits, but I think we'd see a significant reduction in payroll if that were the case. And again, seems unlikely given the investment in the Battery.
    Last edited by Carp; 02-10-2019 at 10:22 PM.

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    It’s far more likely the Braves had $10M-$15M left to spend and couldn’t get Brantley with it, so they spent $4M of it on Markakis. Now they have $5M-$10M to spend and will look to add around the edges of the roster. All because they misjudged the cost of upgrading cOF.

    Gio, BP arm like Romo, things like that

    Personally, at this point, I’d like to see Duvall dumped and Marwin added if he will take a 2 year deal yet.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-11-2019 at 01:52 AM.

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    Marwin does seem like the best option remaining for us. I was gonna suggest Adam Jones as a platoon option for Neck, but he has reverse splits over his career.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    AA doesn’t have the balls to sign Kimbrel
    The balls or being smart about his finances to use?

    At the moment the Braves have the following as bullpen options.

    Right side: O'Day, Viz, Winkler, Sobotka, Carle, Webb? some others, we could use a better RH option here but not sure it's smart to cough up a pick and give a lot of money to Kimbrel.

    Left side: Biddle, Fried, Freeman, Minter, Venters.

    On paper it's vastly better than what we had OD in 2018.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    The balls or being smart about his finances to use?

    At the moment the Braves have the following as bullpen options.

    Right side: O'Day, Viz, Winkler, Sobotka, Carle, Webb? some others, we could use a better RH option here but not sure it's smart to cough up a pick and give a lot of money to Kimbrel.

    Left side: Biddle, Fried, Freeman, Minter, Venters.

    On paper it's vastly better than what we had OD in 2018.

    Two names I am watching for this year is clouse and wilson. I know wilson is still a starter. But he could be a great reliever imo
    Last edited by bravesfanMatt; 02-11-2019 at 08:42 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Seems unlikely given the nature of GMs in baseball. If AA can't put us in the playoffs consistently, he'll be out of a job, and that extra bonus money (may be a few hundred thousand) won't mean jack ****. So it would be in his best interest to consistently put together the best possible team with the payroll allotted.

    Now it's possible Liberty has tightened the purse strings in order to maximize profits, but I think we'd see a significant reduction in payroll if that were the case. And again, seems unlikely given the investment in the Battery.
    You're assuming Liberty is judging AA by his ability to put a winning team on the field. Considering the nature of a corporate owner like Liberty, I'm thinking he's being judged based on financial measurements instead of on field success. What does Liberty care about a World Series if they can make more money off an 85 win team?

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    You're assuming Liberty is judging AA by his ability to put a winning team on the field. Considering the nature of a corporate owner like Liberty, I'm thinking he's being judged based on financial measurements instead of on field success. What does Liberty care about a World Series if they can make more money off an 85 win team?
    It would be interesting to compare the revenue for a WS team vs an 85 win team....

    For instance, if the Braves bumped payroll to ~$150m before the season began, brought in a few pieces to help get this team over the top, would that produce more money rather than dropping payroll after a division title, which according to DOB, is what the Braves have done so far...

    the latter part of that sends the wrong message to the fan base, and will probably keep many of them away from going to the ballpark. Where as, if you bump payroll to ~$150m, that energizes the fanbase, brings more people to the park...usually tickets prices are more expensive in that case because they are in higher demand....

    Seems like investing in your team would actually increase profits....maybe Liberty views being slightly above or around mediocre is a less risky way to make money?
    Last edited by bravesfanforlife88; 02-11-2019 at 09:44 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    It would be interesting to compare the revenue for a WS team vs an 85 win team....

    For instance, if the Braves bumped payroll to ~$150m before the season began, brought in a few pieces to help get this team over the top, would that produce more money rather than dropping payroll after a division title, which according to DOB, is what the Braves have done so far...

    the latter part of that sends the wrong message to the fan base, and will probably keep many of them away from going to the ballpark. Where as, if you bump payroll to ~$150m, that energizes the fanbase, brings more people to the park...usually tickets prices are more expensive in that case because they are in higher demand....

    Seems like investing in your team would actually increase profits....maybe Liberty views being slightly above or around mediocre is a less risky way to make money?
    I'll wager there are people who have run some numbers for the Braves in that regard. If they've dropped payroll it's either because Liberty demanded it or because they believe it will increase profits.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    It would be interesting to compare the revenue for a WS team vs an 85 win team....

    For instance, if the Braves bumped payroll to ~$150m before the season began, brought in a few pieces to help get this team over the top, would that produce more money rather than dropping payroll after a division title, which according to DOB, is what the Braves have done so far...

    the latter part of that sends the wrong message to the fan base, and will probably keep many of them away from going to the ballpark. Where as, if you bump payroll to ~$150m, that energizes the fanbase, brings more people to the park...usually tickets prices are more expensive in that case because they are in higher demand....

    Seems like investing in your team would actually increase profits....maybe Liberty views being slightly above or around mediocre is a less risky way to make money?
    Playoff games are big money.

    The Braves are not going to deficit spend to get there.

    The top end of their budget is likely very attendance sensitive. It's probably somewhere between 130-140 on the high end.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Playoff games are big money.

    The Braves are not going to deficit spend to get there.

    The top end of their budget is likely very attendance sensitive. It's probably somewhere between 130-140 on the high end.
    The point of the post is that there is a direct correlation between bumping the payroll to make the team better and having better attendance....

    If say the Braves went out this offseason and got Donaldson, JTR, plus say a Keuchel or Kimbrel, you would imagine that the fan base would turn out in better numbers throughout the season as opposed to bringing in Donaldson, McCann, and Markakis. A better overall product on the field should lead to increased fan attendance.....meaning more money spent on parking, the Battery, drinks/food/souvenirs sold in Suntrust Park...on top of increased ticket prices.

    When people are being told by everyone in the media that the Braves are likely a 4th place team in the division, most people won't spend the money to go see them. That's why last season, the fan attendance really spiked towards the end of the season. And the 1 home game we played in the NLDS had an atmosphere that was unbelievable.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    AA doesn’t have the balls to sign Kimbrel
    I guess I don't have the balls either if it involves paying a dumb amount of money to a guy we don't really need who has shown real trends of decline.... oh wait.... maybe has nothing to do with balls and maybe it's just somewhat not stupid

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    The point of the post is that there is a direct correlation between bumping the payroll to make the team better and having better attendance....

    If say the Braves went out this offseason and got Donaldson, JTR, plus say a Keuchel or Kimbrel, you would imagine that the fan base would turn out in better numbers throughout the season as opposed to bringing in Donaldson, McCann, and Markakis. A better overall product on the field should lead to increased fan attendance.....meaning more money spent on parking, the Battery, drinks/food/souvenirs sold in Suntrust Park...on top of increased ticket prices.

    When people are being told by everyone in the media that the Braves are likely a 4th place team in the division, most people won't spend the money to go see them. That's why last season, the fan attendance really spiked towards the end of the season. And the 1 home game we played in the NLDS had an atmosphere that was unbelievable.
    A 3 win starter and a 1 win reliever for $30+ million ish.... how stupid that would be

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    The point of the post is that there is a direct correlation between bumping the payroll to make the team better and having better attendance....

    If say the Braves went out this offseason and got Donaldson, JTR, plus say a Keuchel or Kimbrel, you would imagine that the fan base would turn out in better numbers throughout the season as opposed to bringing in Donaldson, McCann, and Markakis. A better overall product on the field should lead to increased fan attendance.....meaning more money spent on parking, the Battery, drinks/food/souvenirs sold in Suntrust Park...on top of increased ticket prices.

    When people are being told by everyone in the media that the Braves are likely a 4th place team in the division, most people won't spend the money to go see them. That's why last season, the fan attendance really spiked towards the end of the season. And the 1 home game we played in the NLDS had an atmosphere that was unbelievable.
    Most fans just know that the the team won the division last year, brought back pretty much the whole team, and added Josh Donaldson.

    They haven't consigned the team to fourth place in the division.

    Their decisions on whether to go to games will be dependent on their own schedules and the team's record. Not what the offseason looked like.

    I suspect ticket sales are way up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    A 3 win starter and a 1 win reliever for $30+ million ish.... how stupid that would be
    Adding Donaldson Jtr Keuchel and Kimbrel would have been adding ~12 WAR

    Using this article from fangraphs, which calculates $/WAR as $4.2m/starter, $5.7/position player, and $10.9/reliever you can calculate the players projected value for 2019.

    Josh Donaldson = 4.1 WAR x $5.7m = $23.37M (signed for $23m)
    JTR = 3.9 WAR X $5.7M = $22.23M (Playing for $5.9m)
    Keuchel = 3.3 WAR X $4.2M = $13.86M (Still unsigned)
    Kimbrel = 1.2 WAR X $10.9M = $13.08M (Still unsigned)

    Kimbrel and Keuchel will probably cost slightly more than those projections, however, at this point in the offseason, maybe not. And while JTRs value does not take into account prospect capital lost, the monetary value suggests that money that we save from paying him, could be used to sign those 2 to a little above their $/WAR projections.
    Last edited by bravesfanforlife88; 02-11-2019 at 11:30 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    Adding Donaldson Jtr Keuchel and Kimbrel would have been adding ~12 WAR
    Yes and adding Keuchel and Kimbrel would be about 4 wins at best for $30+ million... which would be so dumb... Donaldson and JTR would be good additions and one we got one . Kimbrel and Keuchel we don't need at their prices... they barely move the needle... you're having a fantasy of a Kimbrel that doesn't exist anymore

    It is actually pretty simple to understand and has nothing to do with balls

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Yes and adding Keuchel and Kimbrel would be about 4 wins at best for $30+ million... which would be so dumb... Donaldson and JTR would be good additions and one we got one . Kimbrel and Keuchel we don't need at their prices... they barely move the needle... you're having a fantasy of a Kimbrel that doesn't exist anymore

    It is actually pretty simple to understand and has nothing to do with balls
    Kimbrel is one year removed from a vintage performance. Wouldn't say it's definitely over.

    I'd have to see the deals to have a view on whether it made sense or not. I don't think the Braves sign either though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Kimbrel is one year removed from a vintage performance. Wouldn't say it's definitely over.

    I'd have to see the deals to have a view on whether it made sense or not. I don't think the Braves sign either though.
    You mean the 1 outlier year in 4 years? I'm not spending an absurd amount of reliever money for that uncertainty and any GM with half a brain and a budget isn't either
    Last edited by zbhargrove; 02-11-2019 at 11:30 AM.

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