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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

  1. #10241
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    The deal is good for the player. It doesn't make it necessarily bad for the team.
    Every contract weighs the upside vs the downside. Eliminating the upside with an opt out makes the contract worse for the team.

    It doesn’t take a sales engineer to understand this basic concept lol.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The main difference is the Phils can afford a $300M contract and a $180M payroll...the Padres can't.
    I'm not saying its a great deal for the Pods. But its not a disaster. They can move Wil Myers at some point if necessary.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Maybe terry mcdork and DD can create a new banner to fly in BBnT park this season. Winners of most WAR value of offseason and most money spent not on team. Go team.
    believe it or not adding expected WAR in the off-season translates to real W's in the real season...the two are not unrelated
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    AA has added an expected 6 wins this offseason at the cost of 30M. 5M/win. The challenge I keep asking of his critics is to show me an alternative that nets you that many or more wins for the same price.
    I don't have an issue with the moves he made. I have an issue that those were the only moves made.

    If he wasn't (or couldn't) do anything else then making the moves he made doesn't really make that much sense, getting the team into an area where they are just marginally not good enough. Sure, if everything breaks perfect then things turn rosey, much like 2018. If things aren't perfect then you're looking at 4th in the East.

    My complaint is that they didn't do enough if the opportunity is to be real.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The downside is that there is no upside for a team.

    The opt out means the only possible outcomes for the team is being stuck with a bad contract, or losing control over a good contract.

    Anyone who can’t understand why opt outs favor the player shouldn’t be inserting themselves into baseball finance discussions.

    Your assumption is that the team doesn't get anything out of negotiating the opt-out.

    What they should get in exchange for the opt-out is less of a total guarantee.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The downside is that there is no upside for a team.

    The opt out means the only possible outcomes for the team is being stuck with a bad contract, or losing control over a good contract.

    Anyone who can’t understand why opt outs favor the player shouldn’t be inserting themselves into baseball finance discussions.
    I think the mindset here is that he is great for the 3 years you have him then opts out and another team pays for his declining years.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    believe it or not adding expected WAR in the off-season translates to real W's in the real season...the two are not unrelated
    I like adding WAR. Even if it cost a little bit more in prospects and or money.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Every contract weighs the upside vs the downside. Eliminating the upside with an opt out makes the contract worse for the team.

    It doesn’t take a sales engineer to understand this basic concept lol.

    I'm just curious. Have you ever negotiated or mediated anything significant? You know while you were waiting for your software to compile things?

    It would be pretty poor negotiating for the team not to get a concession for the value of the option.

    As long as that value is accounted for on the team's end, it doesn't necessarily make it a zero sum game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    I don't have an issue with the moves he made. I have an issue that those were the only moves made.

    If he wasn't (or couldn't) do anything else then making the moves he made doesn't really make that much sense, getting the team into an area where they are just marginally not good enough. Sure, if everything breaks perfect then things turn rosey, much like 2018. If things aren't perfect then you're looking at 4th in the East.

    My complaint is that they didn't do enough if the opportunity is to be real.
    We finish third in the East at worst, the problem is we were the favorites to repeat if Harper had headed West!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Your assumption is that the team doesn't get anything out of negotiating the opt-out.

    What they should get in exchange for the opt-out is less of a total guarantee.
    LOL, yes, which makes the opt out a positive for the player.

    You literally just proved that point with your comment.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I like adding WAR. Even if it cost a little bit more in prospects and or money.
    me too...but only if WAR/$ ratio is right
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I'm just curious. Have you ever negotiated or mediated anything significant? You know while you were waiting for your software to compile things?

    It would be pretty poor negotiating for the team not to get a concession for the value of the option.

    As long as that value is accounted for on the team's end, it doesn't necessarily make it a zero sum game.
    Again, I said, "the opt out is a positive for the player". I did not say, "a contract with an opt out is a positive for the player".

    You literally just proved that point by stating an opt out means the player gets less of a total guarantee, and your insistence on being contrarian is going to keep you talking in circles about this.

    Reading comprehension...it's not for everyone.

    Opt out: good for player...period. Very simple.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-28-2019 at 04:36 PM.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ozzie's Chainz View Post
    We finish third in the East at worst, the problem is we were the favorites to repeat if Harper had headed West!
    it is not under our control what other teams do...AA did fine this off-season
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    it is not under our control what other teams do...AA did fine this off-season
    Disagreed.

    AA splurged early at the deepest position in the FA class when a suitable option was already on the roster.

    AA did not get good enough production in cOF where there was no internal option available.

    AA did not convert any future prospect value to present day value.

    This was not a well run off season for a contending team. The mistake was made early when he miscalculated the cost of upgrading the OF, which ultimately resulted in having to check down to Option D and spin it as "good value". Getting "good value" on and item that isnit good enough to meet the needs of the buyer isn't "good value". If you need 3 WAR and you spend $6M on 1 WAR to avoid spending market value on 3 WAR...you didn't get "good value".

    At best I give him a C-...maybe a C.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-28-2019 at 04:41 PM.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Incorrect.

    The Marlins wanted one of Pache/Riley and one of the FV 55+ pitchers.
    True...but they also wanted a young controllable catcher. We didn’t have that (I am assuming they had no real interest in Flowers). I think the Phils just matched up better and we would have had to over pay to make it work.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    it is not under our control what other teams do...AA did fine this off-season
    Oh, I'm fine with the team as it is (even though I would like to add Kimbrel but if the price is right not an off-season breaker either way), just replying to Harry's silliness. I probably should just ignore him, Jedi Master.
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    I wish we would have done more...but what?

    The Machado and Harper deals were so much money and so long term...our team couldn’t take on that risk.

    Really Pollock might have been the only one, but that was also risky....just lest risky. I think that’s the one I would have chosen.

    I still think there are trades, etc out there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    True...but they also wanted a young controllable catcher. We didn’t have that (I am assuming they had no real interest in Flowers). I think the Phils just matched up better and we would have had to over pay to make it work.
    They certainly weren't getting Contreras in any deal for only two years of JTR or I'd assume he was never on the table!
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Give me a "big splash" by another team this off-season which works better than adding 6 wins for 30M.
    I said pretty clearly in my last post that adding 6 wins for 30m is great if you use those savings to splurge on something that gets you over the top. Otherwise you're just a cheap team who wins 6 more games than the other cheap teams. Big F whoop.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Disagreed.

    AA splurged early at the deepest position in the FA class when a suitable option was already on the roster.

    AA did not get good enough production in cOF where there was no internal option available.

    AA did not convert any future prospect value to present day value.

    This was not a well run off season for a contending team. The mistake was made early when he miscalculated the cost of upgrading the OF, which ultimately resulted in having to check down to Option D and spin it as "good value". Getting "good value" on and item that isnit good enough to meet the needs of the buyer isn't "good value". If you need 3 WAR and you spend $6M on 1 WAR to avoid spending market value on 3 WAR...you didn't get "good value".

    At best I give him a C-...maybe a C.
    Going point by point

    1) The Donaldson signing was tremendous value. Would not call getting that sort of value a splurge.

    2) Remains to be seen. We have Muk/Duvall/Camargo/Riley as options. I am concerned Snit has not seen fit to play Camargo or Riley in the outfield yet. That should be happening.

    3) I'm fine with converting prospects to current season value. I suspect AA is fine doing that too. Just insistent that the return is right.

    By focusing on value, we are going to end up with a deeper team than if we focused on position specific needs. One of the bonuses of that is the way at bats get redistributed. Donaldson takes away at bats from Camargo. But Camargo takes away at bats that last year went to the likes of Flaherty. So we are really transferring at bats from Flaherty to Donaldson.

    I am a bit concerned about right field. Snit is old school in his loyalty to veterans. I hope he will be open-minded about giving some of Muk's ABs to other players.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 02-28-2019 at 04:49 PM.
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