nothing like 1 outlier year to skew the stats of a 4-year sample. he was only "elite" that one year..as i said.
the other three years:
2015: 20th WAR, 26th FIP, 9th xFIP, 5th k/9, 92nd BB/9, 57th BABIP (not even sure why this is being used, but OK)
2016: 29th WAR, 28th FIP, 40th FIP, 4th k/9, 132nd bb/9, 17th BABIP
2018: 22nd WAR, 46th FIP, 26th xFIP, 7th k/9, 24th BB/9, 4th BABIP
so when you take it year-by-year, as you would do when comparing who was elite in which years, kimbrel was decidedly not elite in any of the above years.
Last edited by Super; 03-06-2019 at 02:30 PM.
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
yeah, i'm here. i don't think kimbrel even has the high dollar offers anymore.
and i'm still pretty uninterested in signing him for one year at high $ amount.
maybe waiting until the comp pick is gone would actually benefit him. teams would like to have him for later in the season and wouldn't lose the pick. he'll probably get a better deal then than now.
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
Seems a little steep.
Soria got 15M over 2 years. He's a 2 WAR player over that period easy. A's got a bargain.
Familia got 30M over 3 years. He's around a 2.5 WAR player over than period. So here we have a premium over market but more like 50% than 2x
Britton got 39M over 3 years. Hard to say with him because of recent health. But I think he's around 2.5 WAR player over 3 years. Close to that 2x premium
Robertson got 23M guaranteed over 2 years. He's probably a 2 WAR player over that period. So a premium but more like 50%.
There are probably some others this off-season I can't remember. But it seems more like a 50% premium.
I think we are paying market or more if we value Kimbrel over 2 WAR (16-17M per year). I'd be ok with going about 14M/year for 2-3 years. It seems to me the Braves are in the driver's seat here. If he says he wants more than Britton, his agent can give him a tutorial on state and local taxes in GA vs NY.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
I'm going to pass on the anecdotal evidence in favor of this data:
https://community.fangraphs.com/on-w...ent-contracts/
Since 2006, the cost of a win for starting pitchers is $4.2 million and $5.7 million for position players, but for relief pitchers, the price is $10.9 million.
Teams are only in a position to get extreme value with Kimbrel now because his agent messed up.
A 3/50+ contract was perfectly reasonable for him had his agent performed competently. I'm not going to bother with hypothetical scenarios where the Braves sign him because this situation is too odd to make an intelligent prediction. Kimbrel is currently benefiting from the fact that he can ramp up into regular season form rather quickly, and as soon as a contender loses an impact BP arm he might see his market open up.
Last edited by Enscheff; 03-06-2019 at 04:12 PM.
Another one...
Wade Davis: 1.1 Win 17.333 AAV. close to a 100% premium.
I think 1.5 WAR for Kimbrell is maybe closer to a floor for negotiation purposes than a ceiling. He should get more than Davis and probably significantly more. But maybe Davis just got way overpaid because Kimbrel over shot things.
Red Sox Steven Wright has been suspended 80 games, further depletes their bullpen....opening door for Kimbrel?
Get off my lawn!