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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Again, I agree with that. Pointing out there are scenarios where it can be beneficial to the team isn't a disagreement.
    but a team still wouldn’t push for an opt out. that doesn’t make sense. it can end up being good for a team but it still gives the player more control. one person said harper didn’t want one. more likely the phillies wouldn’t give him one. there’s no downside for harper himself to have the opt out. there is downside for the team.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This tells me the Braves don't think they need another above average arm in the BP.
    Yeah we'd have to think, right? Dude signed a minor league deal. Clearly AA thinks we're set

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Not sure where you're going here. He's never going to have surplus value.
    Incorrect.

    A front loaded contract with a guy who ages like Beltre could absolutely have surplus value in his mid-30s at the tail end of Machado's deal.

    Harper turning into the perennial 6+ win monster everyone wants to believe he is will also give him plenty of surplus value for the duration of that contract.

    An opt out removes any chance of the team benefiting from those scenarios. Therefore, opt outs are a plus for players. Period.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-28-2019 at 07:04 PM.

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    AA just waiting for Kimbrel to sign after June 5th.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    but a team still wouldn’t push for an opt out. that doesn’t make sense. it can end up being good for a team but it still gives the player more control. one person said harper didn’t want one. more likely the phillies wouldn’t give him one. there’s no downside for harper himself to have the opt out. there is downside for the team.
    The downside for Harper was that an opt out likely meant he wouldn't get $330M...because opt outs are valuable for the player.

    Considering all Boras/Harper wanted to see was "Harper signs largest contract in the history of sports" plastered on every major news outlet, it makes sense he wouldn't concede the guaranteed money required to get an opt out.

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    Phillies are not going to enjoy that contract in a few years, IMO
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    Let's assume the 3 years for 90 million offers to machado and Harper were real for a minute. So assume we got 30 million to play with at deadline. Who are some on the guys on clubs likely to fall out of contention that we could potentially snag by taking on their salary?

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Let's assume the 3 years for 90 million offers to machado and Harper were real for a minute. So assume we got 30 million to play with at deadline. Who are some on the guys on clubs likely to fall out of contention that we could potentially snag by taking on their salary?
    Don’t forget 30 mil now is like 60 mil at the deadline. They won’t land multiple players that fill the prorated 30 mil amount. And if that’s the case all this talk about spending later is lip service. Very frustrating. They don’t necessarily need to spend all of it now, but cmon spend some of it now bc we all know it’s not going to all be spent later. Signing Kimbrel now would help over the course of the season and still leave extra money for a deadline acquisition. But just as always, the penny pinchers would rather have their extra money line their pockets than help build the team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Let's assume the 3 years for 90 million offers to machado and Harper were real for a minute. So assume we got 30 million to play with at deadline. Who are some on the guys on clubs likely to fall out of contention that we could potentially snag by taking on their salary?
    First guy that comes to my mind is Madison Bumbarner. Giants are very unlikely to contend and they may dangle him at the deadline to get some youngsters. I also look at Arizona having a tough season possibly. If that happens, Archie Bradley is one I’m watching for. I know some may say Greinke, but that may still this year be a tough one to deal.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The downside for Harper was that an opt out likely meant he wouldn't get $330M...because opt outs are valuable for the player.

    Considering all Boras/Harper wanted to see was "Harper signs largest contract in the history of sports" plastered on every major news outlet, it makes sense he wouldn't concede the guaranteed money required to get an opt out.
    true. i guess i meant functionally having one is only advantageous for him.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The downside for Harper was that an opt out likely meant he wouldn't get $330M...because opt outs are valuable for the player.

    Considering all Boras/Harper wanted to see was "Harper signs largest contract in the history of sports" plastered on every major news outlet, it makes sense he wouldn't concede the guaranteed money required to get an opt out.
    Have to think Trout will probably own that title soon.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrimsonCowboy View Post
    Phillies are not going to enjoy that contract in a few years, IMO
    Yeah, I am not disappointed to see the Phillies make this deal. ZiPs projects Harper as below replacement level over the last 3 years of the deal, so even the last 4-5 (6?) years of the deal may be under water from a value standpoint. Harper seems to keep his nose clean off the field, but his personality is not exactly endearing. I could see things getting toxic between him and the Philly fan base, for sure.

    Phils look good on paper after all these adds, but I don't envy the job Gabe Kapler will have in front of him this year. A lot of high profile additions and egos to patch together, and a big uptick in pressure to perform. They have moved a ton of future assets into the present. They zigged and we zagged. I prefer zagging.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrimsonCowboy View Post
    Phillies are not going to enjoy that contract in a few years, IMO
    Doubt it. In 8 years 25 million per will be standard for 2.5 win guys. It is probably front loaded heavy the first three years to make it closer to 18 million the last fiver or so. Face reality. Faillies are not dumb and the Brave have terry hamstringing us to very risky and expensive commercial real estate investments. If the team vaulters the whole thing will collapse. Paying down team debt is a smart move. But he should have balanced that with spending on the team to keep dollars flowing into the investment. A fan can spin this anyway they want. But reality is the faillies improved at a significant cost. But they definitely improved. The Braves made a less risky move to improve but may very well end up losing ground because the other teams improved more. The FO decided to role with what we have and hope. Terrible plan imo.
    Coppy

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    Bud Norris has signed with the Blue Jays, this team truly is FINNISH
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    but a team still wouldn’t push for an opt out. that doesn’t make sense. it can end up being good for a team but it still gives the player more control. one person said harper didn’t want one. more likely the phillies wouldn’t give him one. there’s no downside for harper himself to have the opt out. there is downside for the team.
    I agree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Incorrect.

    A front loaded contract with a guy who ages like Beltre could absolutely have surplus value in his mid-30s at the tail end of Machado's deal.

    Harper turning into the perennial 6+ win monster everyone wants to believe he is will also give him plenty of surplus value for the duration of that contract.

    An opt out removes any chance of the team benefiting from those scenarios. Therefore, opt outs are a plus for players. Period.

    They would have to trade him before the opt out though, as that scenario you just portrayed would surely have the player opting out the first chance he got.

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    C - realmuto
    1b - Hoskins
    2b - Hernandez
    Ss - segura
    3b - Franco
    Lf - mccutchen
    Cf - Herrera
    Rf - Harper

    How much better is this lineup defensively than last season?

    C - Mac/flowers
    1b - FF
    2b - albies
    Ss - Swanson
    3b - Donaldson
    Lf - acuna
    Cf - ender
    Rf - markakis

    I still think you can make a case that we have 3 hitters as good as their best, Harper. Gonna need some offense from Swanson this year. If we trust camargo to back up at ss, wish we'd fill culberson's spot with more offense

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    C - realmuto
    1b - Hoskins
    2b - Hernandez
    Ss - segura
    3b - Franco
    Lf - mccutchen
    Cf - Herrera
    Rf - Harper

    How much better is this lineup defensively than last season?

    C - Mac/flowers
    1b - FF
    2b - albies
    Ss - Swanson
    3b - Donaldson
    Lf - acuna
    Cf - ender
    Rf - markakis

    I still think you can make a case that we have 3 hitters as good as their best, Harper. Gonna need some offense from Swanson this year. If we trust camargo to back up at ss, wish we'd fill culberson's spot with more offense
    If you go position by position, i have it C- Phi, 1B- Atl, 2B- Atl, SS- Phi, 3B- Atl, LF- Atl, CF- Push, RF- Phi.

    Bullpen- push, rotation-tough to say as of now, neither rotation is particularly great, Braves have potential with the arms they have.

    Regarding defense, they're better defensively but still not insanely better on that end.

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    IMO as of today:

    NL East -

    Washington

    then in any order and likely dependant on health and luck

    Phillies
    Mets
    Braves

    SP - Nats, Mets, Braves, Phillies
    RP - Mets, Phillies, Braves, Nats
    Lineup - Phillies, Nats, Braves, Mets
    Bench - Nats, Braves, Phillies, Mets

    Best overall Pitching - Mets, Nats, Phillies, Braves
    Best overall hitting - Phillies, Nats, Braves, Mets

    Keuchel, Kimbrel, Gonzalez, Maldonado, Madson, Warren, Sipp left to sign.

    If the Braves added Keuchel they still wouldn't pass the Nats or Mets. I see the Phillies making a run.
    If they signed Kimbrel they probably pass Philly but not the Mets in RP. Expect the Nats to make an offer IF he signs in the NL East.
    Gonzalez would be filler and not move the needle at all for the Braves. Again Phillies maybe.
    Maldonado might end in Philly.
    Braves probably get one of Madson, Warren or Sipp.
    Or they get nothing and the NL ends up with none of the leftovers.

    Health and luck. That's what the Braves are praying for now.

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