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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I guess I don’t really understand the rational for committing 8 million aav years to a utility player (Marwin).

    Or do you folks expect him to be the starting LF?

    I’d rather sign a 3B short term and use Camargo in that role.
    I think you're underestimating the value that a versatile switch hitter would bring to the team. As nsacpi said, he would still get a minimum of 400 plate appearances and it would allow us the flexibility of optimizing our lineup game by game, it would buy us insurance against injury, it would buy us insurance against cold spells, and it would allow us to give guys days off when needed. I think our bench depth was one of the most obvious weaknesses of our team this year and people underestimate how valuable a deep bench can be. I'd pay 8 million AAV for that all day long. I don't think its a bad value play in any sense. 8 million isn't much for a post-arb player.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I guess my question is what’s so great about Gonzalez getting 400 plate appearances at 8 million dollars aav?

    He’s slightly above average hitter with no real split advantage.

    That’s a super expensive bench bat.
    To reiterate, 8 million dollars is not that much money for a quality post arbitration bench bat in my eyes. If you want to look at it purely as a value proposition, he'd only have to eclipse 1 WAR per year to be worth it and he has produced 8.7 WAR in his last 5 seasons, albeit that number is a bit inflated by his great 2017 season. I would have definitely preferred Escobar over Gonzalez. I've been advocating Escobar for months now. But now that he is gone Gonzalez is the next guy on my personal list. There are also a few other guys who might be a little cheaper, but are also a little different. If we decided to go the cheaper route, I suppose Descalso would be the guy I would target.

    Whoever we decide to roll with, we need bench help badly. If we go into another postseason with 3 roster spots being eaten up by Rene Rivera, Ryan Flaherty, and Lane Adams, then something has gone wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    To reiterate, 8 million dollars is not that much money for a quality post arbitration bench bat in my eyes. If you want to look at it purely as a value proposition, he'd only have to eclipse 1 WAR per year to be worth it and he has produced 8.7 WAR in his last 5 seasons, albeit that number is a bit inflated by his great 2017 season. I would have definitely preferred Escobar over Gonzalez. I've been advocating Escobar for months now. But now that he is gone Gonzalez is the next guy on my personal list. There are also a few other guys who might be a little cheaper, but are also a little different. If we decided to go the cheaper route, I suppose Descalso would be the guy I would target.

    Whoever we decide to roll with, we need bench help badly. If we go into another postseason with 3 roster spots being eaten up by Rene Rivera, Ryan Flaherty, and Lane Adams, then something has gone wrong.
    I'm thinking Neil Walker might be the best value player available for our needs. Not as good an overall player as Marwin. But has more of the punch from the left side. Plus he'll be cheaper.

    The scenarios where we would regret choosing Walker over Gonzalez are the ones where a regular goes down for an extended period.
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    Gonzalez is an average defender everywhere but short where he is below average.

    A 104 wRC+ isn’t much to write home about with the bat.

    You don’t benefit from him playing 3b as you lose hitting and defense.

    He’s a much better hitter than Swanson but probably gives back all of that value based on defense. As this is top of the league defense vs below average defense.

    You’d rather have Albies at least from his strong side with the bat. If you platoon his weaker side you are losing defense. But platooning Albies seems unlikely.

    And you certainly don’t want a left fielder with a 104 wRC+.

    If it’s just having nice depth, but you can do that cheaper, I’m sure. Or you can create it by upgrading 3B.

    Because you already have this guy on roster. His name is Camargo. Or His name is Culbertson. For 7 million less a year.

    You want to improve the team I think you go out and get difference makers. Even if it’s just one platoon side.

    I don’t see the point of committing to Gonzalez. You’d be outbidding a better team for him and not sure that makes sense.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I'm thinking Neil Walker might be the best value player available for our needs. Not as good an overall player as Marwin. But has more of the punch from the left side. Plus he'll be cheaper.

    The scenarios where we would regret choosing Walker over Gonzalez are the ones where a regular goes down for an extended period.
    Walker seems like he could be cheaper and of less duration.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Walker seems like he could be cheaper and of less duration.
    Dietrich and Lamb also have attributes (the left handed punch) that are more narrowly tailored to what the team needs and probably would not require a top prospect
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    Saw Trevor Rosenthal had a good showcase and sat around 98. I’d be all for signing him for a year or two rather than trading prospects or having multi year commitments for other RP.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Gonzalez is an average defender everywhere but short where he is below average.

    A 104 wRC+ isn’t much to write home about with the bat.

    You don’t benefit from him playing 3b as you lose hitting and defense.

    He’s a much better hitter than Swanson but probably gives back all of that value based on defense. As this is top of the league defense vs below average defense.

    You’d rather have Albies at least from his strong side with the bat. If you platoon his weaker side you are losing defense. But platooning Albies seems unlikely.

    And you certainly don’t want a left fielder with a 104 wRC+.

    If it’s just having nice depth, but you can do that cheaper, I’m sure. Or you can create it by upgrading 3B.

    Because you already have this guy on roster. His name is Camargo. Or His name is Culbertson. For 7 million less a year.

    You want to improve the team I think you go out and get difference makers. Even if it’s just one platoon side.

    I don’t see the point of committing to Gonzalez. You’d be outbidding a better team for him and not sure that makes sense.
    I get that you don't like him as an everyday player, and that's fine.

    Find me another guy who can play seven defensive positions acceptably (there's an unbelievably small chance he's ever asked to play SS or CF here) and can do that while giving you an above-average bat.

    You can't. We don't KNOW that Camargo can play on the grass. Culberson was great this year, but 2018 may very well have been his career year - and he delivered a 108 OPS+ (with a .340 BABIP). Prior to this season, Charlie had never delivered even league-average production, and the only times he'd shown this kind of pop was when he played in Colorado Springs.

    The $8 million you keep complaining about is what a 1 WAR player AT ANY POSITION is worth - Gonzalez is better than average no matter where you play him. That's incredibly valuable, and I'm a non-numbers guy.

    If you dislike his SS defense that much, you slide Camargo or Albies over and play Marwin at 3B or 2B. If you dislike his CF defense that much, you slide Acuna over and play him in a corner.

    Gonzalez would be a massive upgrade to the Braves' bench.
    Last edited by clvclv; 10-28-2018 at 02:49 PM.
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    I think in evaluating Gonzalez vs Walker/Lamb/Dietrich the latter three fill a well defined need. Gonzalez provides insurance for needs that as of now are not clearly defined but tend to arise over a long season.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think in evaluating Gonzalez vs Walker/Lamb/Dietrich the latter three fill a well defined need. Gonzalez provides insurance for needs that as of now are not clearly defined but tend to arise over a long season.
    Exactly. He can reasonably fill-in ANYWHERE in a pinch. There's not another guy out there that can do that.

    I like the other three in certain situations, but they're all limited in what they can do defensively - Gonzalez has no such limits.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post

    You want to improve the team I think you go out and get difference makers. Even if it’s just one platoon side.

    I don’t see the point of committing to Gonzalez. You’d be outbidding a better team for him and not sure that makes sense.
    Who says we can't have both? Sign Gonzalez and sign Donaldson or sign Gonzalez and trade for Peralta. Lots of scenarios where it makes sense. You don't want Gonzalez to be your main offensive addition this winter, but adding him as a bench piece for 8 million per year is very good value and makes this team very deep.

    I guess you could argue there are other options that might bring similar production at a cheaper rate, but still the point remains that Gonzalez less than 10 million per year for 3 years or less is good value regardless.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Who says we can't have both? Sign Gonzalez and sign Donaldson or sign Gonzalez and trade for Peralta. Lots of scenarios where it makes sense. You don't want Gonzalez to be your main offensive addition this winter, but adding him as a bench piece for 8 million per year is very good value and makes this team very deep.

    I guess you could argue there are other options that might bring similar production at a cheaper rate, but still the point remains that Gonzalez less than 10 million per year for 3 years or less is good value regardless.
    IN my opinion adding a third utility man that is dead average at most positions except the three where you have below average hitting isn’t the best use of 8 million dollars.

    But if they otherwise upgrade everything they need to upgrade and sign Gonzalez then that’s fine I guess.

    I just doubt the resources are there for that.

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    I just don't see how it is reasonable for us to avoid getting more bench depth. Its such a clear weakness and its very exploitable with our current lineup given the fact we have numerous starters with platoon splits. We need more flexibility in how we deploy our lineup and that is exactly what Gonzalez brings to the table. It would be even more imperative if we decide to trade for a platoon heavy outfielder like, say, Joc Pederson. Or even someone like David Peralta. Instead of deploying two lefties with bad splits in our lineup against a LHP, we could break that up occasionally and start Gonzalez. The same would apply to Ozzie, Dansby, and Camargo on the infield. If we run in to any undesirable matchups, deploy Gonzalez.

    I really like him because of that, but if we don't go after him then we still need to make an addition to help the bench. Walker would be good. Descalso, Cabrera, Lamb, etc.... There are other options that we could decide to go after that would be cheaper. But none have the balance or versatility that Gonzalez brings. But maybe you could offset that by signing two of those lower tier guys that could combine to achieve a similar goal.

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    In an interview with the YES Network, Scott Boras indicated that Bryce Harper has already decided what team he wants to play for in 2019.

    Harper will hit free agency 10 days after the World Series ends, and according to Boras it's already a done deal where he'll end up. Boras stated, "We know who the team is. It's already completed and done, but Bryce has told me that he wanted to tell you personally." It's not surprising to see Boras trying to steal headlines hours before a potential clinching World Series game. Now the speculation can run wild as to where Harper has decided he wants to play next season and beyond.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYCBrave View Post
    In an interview with the YES Network, Scott Boras indicated that Bryce Harper has already decided what team he wants to play for in 2019.

    Harper will hit free agency 10 days after the World Series ends, and according to Boras it's already a done deal where he'll end up. Boras stated, "We know who the team is. It's already completed and done, but Bryce has told me that he wanted to tell you personally." It's not surprising to see Boras trying to steal headlines hours before a potential clinching World Series game. Now the speculation can run wild as to where Harper has decided he wants to play next season and beyond.
    if a deal is done with a team other than the gnats that would be tampering
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    if a deal is done with a team other than the gnats that would be tampering
    And how would you prove it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYCBrave View Post
    In an interview with the YES Network, Scott Boras indicated that Bryce Harper has already decided what team he wants to play for in 2019.

    Harper will hit free agency 10 days after the World Series ends, and according to Boras it's already a done deal where he'll end up. Boras stated, "We know who the team is. It's already completed and done, but Bryce has told me that he wanted to tell you personally." It's not surprising to see Boras trying to steal headlines hours before a potential clinching World Series game. Now the speculation can run wild as to where Harper has decided he wants to play next season and beyond.
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    And how would you prove it?
    I mean...I imagine his agent incriminating him would prompt an investigation.

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    If Harper resigns. Wonder what they do with the outfield when robles is ready.
    Coppy

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    I could see Harper resigning. They have Robles and Keiboom on the way so that should help out.

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