2018 Offseason And Targets

[Super]

his prospects of being productive in the first half of the season aren’t as dim as others have made it out to be.

based on what? one half of baseball that featured unsustainable underlying numbers?
you're choosing to ignore over 3+ full seasons of data in favor of a half a season.

[thewupk]

No raging against anything. I'd have no problem with his acquisition provided the cost makes sense. Pretty funny, actually - I was an "idiot" for talking about trading him to play 3B before Riley broke out and Camargo was given his shot. Always funny how that works - he was a *hitty target back then, but would be awesome now.

Not the issue though. I'd be quite happy with Gallo in LF hitting 5th behind Donaldson or Acuna - I'll just be emptying my bladder and getting another beer most of the time while he's hitting.

Then you would miss about 40 big flys with lots of high fives

[clvclv]

Then you would miss about 40 big flys with lots of high fives

Not unless they stop televising Braves Live and Quick Pitch, or MLB.com suddenly discontinues the Braves' website.

I miss a lot of dunks since I don't watch NBA games - doesn't cost me much sleep.

[thewupk]

Not unless they stop televising Braves Live and Quick Pitch, or MLB.com suddenly discontinues the Braves' website.

I miss a lot of dunks since I don't watch NBA games - doesn't cost me much sleep.

Then what's the point of watching any game live with these options?

[msstate7]

You could look at it like this... markakis has a 106 or better wRC+ in 3 of the last 5 years. The 2 years where it dipped below that were 2016 and 2017. Those 2 years, his strike out rate was over 14%, which it hadn't been that high since 2008 (his 3rd season). Last season, his k rate was 11.3% which is in line with 6 of his last 8 seasons. If you believe the k rate from last season is a real reflection and our defensive positioning really helped him, I don't think 2+ war is out of the question. Is that good enough? Guess we'll find out when AA makes a move

[BeanieAntics]

He basically said he didn’t believe in the part of the numbers that looked bad.

So you think that there is some tangible reason why his K% and his BB% would spike against LHP away from Arlington rather than it just being random variance due to sample size?

Like I said, I'm open to changing my mind on that if you can provide any particular reason something like that would happen.

[Super]

You could look at it like this... markakis has a 106 or better wRC+ in 3 of the last 5 years. The 2 years where it dipped below that were 2016 and 2017. Those 2 years, his strike out rate was over 14%, which it hadn't been that high since 2008 (his 3rd season). Last season, his k rate was 11.3% which is in line with 6 of his last 8 seasons. If you believe the k rate from last season is a real reflection and our defensive positioning really helped him, I don't think 2+ war is out of the question. Is that good enough? Guess we'll find out when AA makes a move

you can play with that type of number any which way. 11.3% is his lowest since 2013. it had risen the previous 3 straight seasons and then dropped by 5%. that number has to be far more likely to regress than progress, or even stay the same.

[Super]

the argument being made for neck right now is "yeah, but did you see his first half??". that's it.

[BeanieAntics]

You could look at it like this... markakis has a 106 or better wRC+ in 3 of the last 5 years. The 2 years where it dipped below that were 2016 and 2017. Those 2 years, his strike out rate was over 14%, which it hadn't been that high since 2008 (his 3rd season). Last season, his k rate was 11.3% which is in line with 6 of his last 8 seasons. If you believe the k rate from last season is a real reflection and our defensive positioning really helped him, I don't think 2+ war is out of the question. Is that good enough? Guess we'll find out when AA makes a move

Now here is a retort that actually has some substance. Maybe this is a reason that he could be better than below average next year.

Even then, I don't think we should be rolling the dice on a guy that showed significant signs of decline over a two year sample and justify that based on a sample 1/4th that size.

[BeanieAntics]

you can play with that type of number any which way. 11.3% is his lowest since 2013. it had risen the previous 3 straight seasons and then dropped by 5%. that number has to be far more likely to regress than progress, or even stay the same.

Yeah, this too.

[msstate7]

you can play with that type of number any which way. 11.3% is his lowest since 2013. it had risen the previous 3 straight seasons and then dropped by 5%. that number has to be far more likely to regress than progress, or even stay the same.

Maybe, maybe not... who knows, maybe being on a crap team the previous years, he felt the need to try and be more of a run producer and last season's talented team helped him be him if you will. Maybe it was all luck.

[Enscheff]

The homer in me refuses to believe AA’s plan this offseason was to sign JD and then downgrade cOF and C. He has already downgraded at C, and almost all remaining options qualify as likely downgrades in cOF.

AA must be primed to acquire either Haniger or JTR. Once Grandal signs, the Marlins will move JTR, and the Braves will either get him or Haniger. Either guy will probably require pitching going the other way, and AA will backfill with Gray as a guy who will be touted as “the front line pitcher the Braves have been looking for all off season”.

If the move is JTR, I expect a lesser LHH option to be paired with Duval. If the move is Haniger I expect to see Duval dumped and an even lesser LHH acquired for the bench. Someone like CarGo may be on the bench regardless...he just better not be “the guy” acquired for LF.

[The Chosen One]

Expecting us to get both JTR and Haniger.

Also expecting us to win NLCS this year.

[Southcack77]

are you being purposefully obtuse here? there was one half that was buoyed by unsustainable numbers. when those unsustainable numbers fell, the player returned to being the same player he was the previous 3+ seasons. he had a good half. no one is denying that. the point is, expecting him to that again moving forward is downright foolish.

you're weighing one half of baseball over 3.5+ years of baseball that "go against your feelings."

Yes, but that’s not what happened.

His last two months were not anything like the “same old Markakis” it was substantially worse.

And was as unlucky according to babip as the previous four months were lucky.

Old players tend to tail off at the end of the season.

[Southcack77]

I do not think you have evinced this claim, though.

seriously go back and look and see what I've said.

[Enscheff]

A lot of arguing over Markakis. Projections have him as the same hitter he’s been the last hundred years: 103 wRC.

Anyone who considers that blip of power he showed early in 2018 as realistic for 2019 is simply being foolish. Anyone who doesn’t know what Markakis is by now is simply naive.

[jpx7]

seriously go back and look and see what I've said.

You’ve basically shown he can be a 1.0 war player going forward. Cool. I don’t see that as a decent fallback option.

[Freshmaker]

Expecting us to get both JTR and Haniger.

Also expecting us to win NLCS this year.

why are you being such a debbie downer?

[Southcack77]

the argument being made for neck right now is "yeah, but did you see his first half??". that's it.

If you go back to the beginning, my point was that he put up good numbers for four months. Three of those months were not particularly fortunate as far as BABIP goes, though he was very fortunate in one of those four months.

In his last two months, his BABIP and power numbers dropped below career norms, but his K rate and BB rate stayed right at his first half pace. There was no sign that the first half return to his career norms in those areas were fluky. IMO, the people who focus on those two months are simply doing their best to ignore than 2018 ever happened. It makes no sense to pretend that the smallest portion of his sample is representative of his season.

I totally understand that folks who want to see the previous three years as a steady decline. I'd just ask for some explanation of how a player in steady decline suddenly reverses that decline. PEDs?

I also think there is an explanation beyond luck for his decline in power in the second half. He's a mid 30s players who for the second season in a row had a really rough second half split. that fit with general studies on aging players that finds that they generally do have weaker second halves than first halves.

I believe the realistic expectation for his first half next year is somewhere between the 99 wRC+ he put up in 2017 and the 133 wRC+ he put up in 2018. If he maintains his K and BB rate in 2019, it should be significantly higher than 99 wRC+. But that's not a given, he is 35 years old. He could show up in spring training and be toast. It happens.

None of this has been to make any claim that Markakis will be an All Star again next season. He might be, but that's besides the point. It's simply that bringing him back for 6m isn't the worst thing that could happen in all the world.

The Braves have Camargo who probably needs to get a game or two a week in the OF to optimize his plate appearances. While I do see him as a utility man, it is entirely possible that he is simply a good young player that is getting better and will continue to get better. He might well be a better OF option than anyone if he can field the position.

There is still the possibility of a bounce back for Duvall. And nothing prevents the Braves from making a trade to upgrade the team in the summer when teams have to face reality about their chances. That might well be the best opportunity of landing a well rounded answer to the position. Something better than paying full price for Joey Gallo though people seem content to try and believe he will be had for less than his surplus value.

I will likely be disappointed by this offseason because I favored a modified going for it strategy. Anthopolous seems intent on hoarding assets and protecting the future. I find that to be insufficiently aggressive, but I will acknowledge that it might keep the Braves in the conversation for longer. I think it also lets them continue to look at their own prospects and determine what exactly they have. It's conservative, but it might prove to be wiser than I might be.

[zbhargrove]

Uggla is a closer comp but never struck out anywhere near 35% of the time and got his obp into a decent range in his prime.

One of my least favorite Braves.

Uggla never had near the talent that Gallo has and Uggla was very good young... Gallo is still young