Originally Posted by
Enscheff
The thought process for any team looking to acquire Gray is that his good seasons in 2014, 2015, and 2017 were due to BABIPs of .255-.269. His poor seasons in 2016 and 2018 were due to BABIPs of .319-.326. His xwOBAs from 2015-2018 were .289, .333, .314, and .317. These are the marks of a SP who is league average or slightly better, and actually compare favorably to Gausman's .308, .317, .346, and .331 values from the last 4 seasons.
I have no doubt many teams project Gray's BABIP to regress to somewhere around .300 (his career rate is .284), and under that scenario he should be expected to produce 2-3 wins over ~30 starts. That production for $9M has a surplus value in the range of $10M.
However, that is not the "front line pitcher" folks seem to be clamoring for the Braves to acquire the last...several...years.
If the Braves are insistent on adding a pitcher for 2 years or less, and won't pay for someone like Happ or Morton, the only option left is Gray.