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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

  1. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I have the Braves just shy of $80M for next year, and still needing a cOF, a catcher, and 2 bench players:

    # Pos Player 2019 Salary
    1 C Flowers $4.00
    2 1B Freeman $21.00
    3 2B Albies $0.55
    4 3B Camargo $0.55
    5 SS Swanson $0.55
    6 LF Acuna $0.55
    7 CF Inciarte $5.00
    8 RF FA/Trade $0.00

    9 SP1 Teheran $11.00
    10 SP2 Folty $5.00
    11 SP3 Gausman $8.00
    12 SP4 Newk $0.55
    13 SP5 Touki $0.55

    14 BN1 Culberson $0.55
    15 BN2 Duvall $2.00
    16 BN3 Backup IF $0.00
    17 BN4 Backup OF $0.00
    18 BN5 Backup C $0.00

    19 BP1 O'Day $8.00
    20 BP2 Viz $6.00
    21 BP3 Freeman $2.00
    22 BP4 Venters $2.00
    23 BP5 Minter $0.55
    24 BP6 Winkler $0.55
    25 BP7 Fried $0.55

    Total $79.50

    Freeman and Duvall are NT candidates, but that only gets the payroll down to $75M.

    Nobody is taking Teheran, and will serve as the obligatory $10M veteran presence at the back of the rotation.

    Assuming opening day payroll is around $120M for 2019, that's $40M-$45M to fill all those holes with playoff caliber talent.

    The Braves are not signing Kimbrel, Machado or Harper. We will be lucky if they shop in the Grandal/Pollock aisle.
    If the Braves dont care about the return, i disagree there's no market for JT. For 11/12 mil the next 2 years, there would be a market for him.

  2. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    3:54 Harper signs 10/370 with opt outs after 3, 5, and 7
    Steve Adams
    3:55 Possible, I suppose, since we don't really know where teams are going to top out in what they're comfortable paying. That'd be a record, obviously. I'm still forecasting more than that for both Harper and Machado, though, in terms of both years and total guarantee.


    The daily "inject reality into the discussion" post. The Braves barely have enough free cash next year to pay either of those guys $40M on a front loaded deal (to entice them to opt out), much less fill all the other holes on the roster after doing so.

    Harper and Machado ain't happening. Period.
    Braves have too many holes to get into that market.

    Imo we need a starting catcher, starting outfielder, 2-3 bench bats, 1-2 bullpen arms at the very least.

    I think improving the bench is the biggest key this winter, Dodgers didnt have a weak bat on their bench. Quality hitter after quality hitter while the Braves trot out Rene Rivera, Lane Adams, and RF off the bench lol smh.

  3. #143
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    I think both Machado (especially if he insists that he play ss) and Harper settle for far less than desired or reported. Both might get the top years. Both might get the multiple opt outs. Both might get the high end AAV. But they aren't getting all three, probably not two of the three.

    I think you will see them drag things out for a long time, similar to JD Martinez (I realize both are in a different category than JD but the concept applies) and end up taking less than they thought and everyone else thought they would get.

    Both have questions, questions that could be overlooked if the years and dollars were less. Since it's a given that they will sign for big money and will sign for a number of years, the risk is significant.

    The big money teams (which are now also the smartest teams) will look at these guys and question the AAV as a percentage of their payroll vs the luxury tax threshold (they also have to worry about the LT changing within the terms of the contracts given) and decide their money will be better spent on JD type deals. They don't need the star power value that goes beyond the field.

    Now, I could see a dumb, desperate franchise make a big offer trying to put fans in seats. A team like Baltimore going hard after Harper which would give them the name and possibly pull some attention away from the Gnats.

    The Machado thing is really bizarre since I think he will get a lot of big offers to play 3B but many less to play short.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    If the Braves dont care about the return, i disagree there's no market for JT. For 11/12 mil the next 2 years, there would be a market for him.
    Teheran is owed $12M and is a 0-1 win SP with declining stuff.

    He has negative surplus value. The Braves would have to eat money just to give him away for no return, and would then go out and sign someone else to fill in the back of the rotation.

    We are seeing guys Newk and Fried transition to the BP already, so this "log jam of SPs" is only in the imaginations of Braves fans.

  5. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    I think both Machado (especially if he insists that he play ss) and Harper settle for far less than desired or reported. Both might get the top years. Both might get the multiple opt outs. Both might get the high end AAV. But they aren't getting all three, probably not two of the three.

    I think you will see them drag things out for a long time, similar to JD Martinez (I realize both are in a different category than JD but the concept applies) and end up taking less than they thought and everyone else thought they would get.

    Both have questions, questions that could be overlooked if the years and dollars were less. Since it's a given that they will sign for big money and will sign for a number of years, the risk is significant.

    The big money teams (which are now also the smartest teams) will look at these guys and question the AAV as a percentage of their payroll vs the luxury tax threshold (they also have to worry about the LT changing within the terms of the contracts given) and decide their money will be better spent on JD type deals. They don't need the star power value that goes beyond the field.

    Now, I could see a dumb, desperate franchise make a big offer trying to put fans in seats. A team like Baltimore going hard after Harper which would give them the name and possibly pull some attention away from the Gnats.

    The Machado thing is really bizarre since I think he will get a lot of big offers to play 3B but many less to play short.
    The big money teams reset their luxury tax penalties precisely to bid on Harper and Machado.

    They will get paid.

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    I'd like to see the Braves keep Duda but I don't see that happening. He'll likely get a chance to start somewhere else.

    I don't Duvall fits on this team because I don't think he works well as a bench player. I think he needs regular ABs, and I don't think he's good enough to give regular ABs too.

    The obviously need an outfielder, and I really don't trust Flowers as the regular catcher. I think Grandal makes some sense. Would prefer Realmuto, but think he'd be too expensive and there is some talk that the Marlins want to extend him.

    I wouldn't mind making runs at Jed Lowrie and Michael Brantley. They need to do something about the bullpen too. All the walks are going to give me an ulcer.

  7. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The big money teams reset their luxury tax penalties precisely to bid on Harper and Machado.

    They will get paid.
    They will get paid.

    I don't think they will blow past all known records.

    I think they end up with "creative" contracts where the team that agrees to pay the big money gets some insurance long term in terms of risk. I don't think it will be all one way: record money, record years, player opt outs while team guarantees everything. I'm sure that is what will be asked for but I don't see teams doing that unless it's a team like Baltimore that has alternative reasons for making the move. I think the big money smart teams will look at the Pujols contract, the Cabrera contract, etc. and be scared to death of $40M of dead money for the last five years of a contract when they realize they don't have to do that.

    Where does Machado or Harper play on the Yankees? The Red Sox? The Dodgers? For the kind of contracts being thrown around? None of those teams would pass them up given the right cost. But they don't need them and won't pay a premium for them IMO.

    One will probably end up with Philly but they will bid against themselves to sign the player. They've also painted themselves into a bit of a corner with the Santana signing. Hoskins should be at 1B and isn't really play-able in LF.

    The Mets might target Machado. Texas might play on both.

    But, I think we've seen a market correction where the big money teams started out clearing contracts with an eye on this offseason, then began to include more and more analytics which showed different ways to more cheaply attain the desired results. Everybody assumes that because the big money teams have cleared payroll that they will spend it on big ticket items. That may happen. But I don't think it will to the extent that it historically has. And the agents will moan like crazy. And the players will strike at next opportunity.

  8. #148
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    Two other names for discussion...

    Marcell Ozuna (only one more year of control - MLBTR predicts $13.4 million)
    Dexter Fowler (how much would the Cards pay to get him off their roster if you think 2018 was an anomaly?)

    They've obviously got a logjam in the OF that trading Martinez doesn't clear up completely (Bader, O'Neill, and Arozarena are ready or almost ready and cheap).
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

  9. #149
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    Yanks and Dodgers specifically reduced their payrolls for this offseason. They both will most certainly be in on Machado/Harper. Dodgers may be not so much on Machado since they have Turner and Seagar, but Harper definitely matches up. Puig and Pederson would be trade candidates in such a scenario.
    Last edited by Carp; 10-09-2018 at 05:50 PM.

  10. #150
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    Just looked up Kepler's year. It looks like he improved his defense dramatically. He also improved his BB rate and cut down on his K's while having the lowest BABIP of his young career.

    Those are all very good signs. He could take that next step in 2019.
    His BABIP was .236, that was abnormally low. He made huge improvements to BB Rate and K Rate. Due to the lack of no brainer options out there, dare I say you could even platoon him with Duvall (banking on a bounce back) and get the extra flexibility we need.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    They will get paid.

    I don't think they will blow past all known records.

    I think they end up with "creative" contracts where the team that agrees to pay the big money gets some insurance long term in terms of risk. I don't think it will be all one way: record money, record years, player opt outs while team guarantees everything. I'm sure that is what will be asked for but I don't see teams doing that unless it's a team like Baltimore that has alternative reasons for making the move. I think the big money smart teams will look at the Pujols contract, the Cabrera contract, etc. and be scared to death of $40M of dead money for the last five years of a contract when they realize they don't have to do that.

    Where does Machado or Harper play on the Yankees? The Red Sox? The Dodgers? For the kind of contracts being thrown around? None of those teams would pass them up given the right cost. But they don't need them and won't pay a premium for them IMO.

    One will probably end up with Philly but they will bid against themselves to sign the player. They've also painted themselves into a bit of a corner with the Santana signing. Hoskins should be at 1B and isn't really play-able in LF.

    The Mets might target Machado. Texas might play on both.

    But, I think we've seen a market correction where the big money teams started out clearing contracts with an eye on this offseason, then began to include more and more analytics which showed different ways to more cheaply attain the desired results. Everybody assumes that because the big money teams have cleared payroll that they will spend it on big ticket items. That may happen. But I don't think it will to the extent that it historically has. And the agents will moan like crazy. And the players will strike at next opportunity.
    They will both beat the current record for FA contract (non-extension record is still ARod's $252M contract), and likely beat Stanton's record $325M contract of any type. They will both get multiple opt outs in addition to the money.

    Anyone thinking otherwise is fooling themselves. The biggest spenders reset their luxury penalties for this off season.

  12. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Yanks and Dodgers specifically reduced their payrolls for this offseason. They both will most certainly be in on Machado/Harper. Dodgers may be not so much on Machado since they have Turner and Seagar, but Harper definitely matches up. Puig and Pederson would be trade candidates in such a scenario.
    This idea that teams who can afford Machado/Harper can't clear a spot to play them is a bit funny.

    The Braves should be hoping the team who signs Harper looks to trade away a good OFer. The Nats could make Eaton available, or the Dodgers could make Puig available, for example.

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    I fully expect Philly to give either Harper or Machado a stupid big contract this winter. They have the money and I think thier front office believes they are in a window of contention. I’m ok with Philly overspending on these guys. Will help us in the long run.

    The Braves don’t need to be giving out 300 million contracts to free agents. The FO needs to be figuring out how to throw money into extensions for Acuna, Albies and Freddie and maybe a pitcher or two in the next couple of years.

  14. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Teheran is owed $12M and is a 0-1 win SP with declining stuff.

    He has negative surplus value. The Braves would have to eat money just to give him away for no return, and would then go out and sign someone else to fill in the back of the rotation.

    We are seeing guys Newk and Fried transition to the BP already, so this "log jam of SPs" is only in the imaginations of Braves fans.
    I'm not saying he'd have a huge market, and if he was traded, i'd think we bring back Sanchez. But for 2 years, at just over 10 mil a year, thats not a bad deal. If the Braves just wanted to clear his salary.

    Rotation: Folty, Gaus, Sanchez, Soroka, Touki.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JxnMissFan View Post
    I fully expect Philly to give either Harper or Machado a stupid big contract this winter. They have the money and I think thier front office believes they are in a window of contention. I’m ok with Philly overspending on these guys. Will help us in the long run.

    The Braves don’t need to be giving out 300 million contracts to free agents. The FO needs to be figuring out how to throw money into extensions for Acuna, Albies and Freddie and maybe a pitcher or two in the next couple of years.
    Considering you have teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, among other big markets in on them, why would either go to Philly other than money?

    When they can get both elsewhere, money and winning.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Considering you have teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, among other big markets in on them, why would either go to Philly other than money?

    When they can get both elsewhere, money and winning.
    I heard on the radio (no source to verify) that Machado is interested in being a star, not just a baseball player....not sure if that is true, but if it is, that probably means more that he would want the money, and be in a big market like LA or NY where he can build a brand.
    Get off my lawn!

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    I heard on the radio (no source to verify) that Machado is interested in being a star, not just a baseball player....not sure if that is true, but if it is, that probably means more that he would want the money, and be in a big market like LA or NY where he can build a brand.
    If he goes to NYY he’ll play 2nd fiddle to Judge. Not sure where he’d play in LA when Seager comes back.

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    I don't understand all the talk about retaining Duval. Comments to support those comments all include something like"IF he bounces back" or "IF he returns to normal" and other such comments. There's an old saying about candy and nuts and Merry Christmas. He was hitting .205 when the Reds gave him away(Sims, Wisler and Tucker), and then hit .132 for the Braves

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Considering you have teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, among other big markets in on them, why would either go to Philly other than money?

    When they can get both elsewhere, money and winning.
    The Cubs, Yankees and Dodgers have smart FO's. They will properly value Harper, Machado, Kershaw which will probably mean 10 year 300 million type contracts. Philly isn't as smart. A dumber FO is more likely to offer a 400 million type contract IMO. A good example of a second tier FO over spending is the Mariners contract to Cano.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    I'm not saying he'd have a huge market, and if he was traded, i'd think we bring back Sanchez. But for 2 years, at just over 10 mil a year, thats not a bad deal. If the Braves just wanted to clear his salary.

    Rotation: Folty, Gaus, Sanchez, Soroka, Touki.
    Nobody is taking all of Teheran’s contract. He has less than 0 trade value. The Braves will be paying Sanchez plus some of Teheran’s contract.

    Just let Teheran fill out the back of the rotation.

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